IRCC Minister Transition Binder 2025-05

The Immigration Levels Plan

Context

Section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) requires that the Minister of Immigration table the Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, including the number of foreign nationals projected to become permanent residents in the following year, by November 1, or within 30 sitting days if a House of Parliament is not sitting on November 1.

The Levels Plan is a rolling three-year plan that sets firm temporary and permanent resident targets and ranges (upper and lower limits) for the first year and notional targets for the outer two years, as well as the number for each immigration category. While the three-year Levels Plan model has been used since 2018, there is no requirement to table more than one year ahead.

The Levels Plan traditionally has three overarching objectives: 1) achieve long-term benefits to Canada; 2) contribute to short-term economic growth and addressing labour market needs; and 3) ensure a well-managed migration system that can maintain public confidence.

Background

• The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (Levels Plan) was tabled on October 24, 2024, and sets permanent resident (PR) targets and, for the first time, also includes temporary resident (TR) targets for a holistic approach towards managed migration. The 2025-2027 Levels Plan reduces overall immigration targets to lessen pressures on services and housing while continuing to support the economy.
• PR targets are set at 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027. Supporting the Canadian economy continues to be a key priority of this Plan, with the economic category representing the largest proportion of PR admissions. The Plan also establishes ambitious targets for French-speaking PR admissions: 8.5% of total PR admissions for 2025 (29,325), 9.5% (31,500) for 2026, and 10% (31,500) for 2027.
• Targets for new TR arrivals were developed to achieve the objective of reducing the proportion of non-permanent residents (NPRs) to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.
• TR targets are set at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027. Targets capture new arrivals only, which provides the number of new workers and students entering Canada each year.

Impacts

• Reductions are expected to result in a marginal population decline in 2025 and 2026. By setting targets for new TR arrivals, the number of people living in Canada is anticipated to temporarily decline by 445,901 in 2025, 445,662 in 2026, and then modestly increase in 2027 by about 17,000.
• At the time of tabling the Levels Plan, the Department of Finance estimated that reductions under the Levels Plan would reduce Canada’s housing supply gap by 670,000 units by 2027. In a report published in November 2024, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimated a gap reduction of 534,000 units by 2030. This difference between these projections reflects several factors, such as the assumed age, region, and household structure of the NPR outflows projected under the Levels Plan, as well as the time horizon and counterfactual population projection used by the PBO.
• The Unites States’ tariffs and broader global trade war have significantly altered the economic landscape. Potential job losses in key sectors (e.g., auto) and a broader global recession could change the impact that current immigration levels have on the Canadian economy, in particular temporary work programs, which are sensitive to domestic labour market conditions.

Current Program

Permanent Residents

• Permanent residents are foreign nationals who are granted permanent resident status under one of the following four immigration classes:
  • Economic Class: this class brings in workers to help strengthen Canada’s economy and represents approximately 59%-62% of PR admissions in the Levels Plan;
  • Family Class: this class supports family reunification and makes up approximately 22%-24% of overall PR admissions in the Levels Plan;
  • Refugees and Protected Persons: this class grants permanent residence to refugees and protected persons and makes up 15% of overall PR admissions; and
  • Humanitarian & Compassionate and Other: this class includes special measures and applications for PR on humanitarian and compassionate grounds and makes up 1%-3% of PR admissions in the Levels Plan.

Temporary Residents

• Temporary Residents in the Levels Plan are defined as an international student or temporary worker admitted under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) or the International Mobility Program (IMP).
  • TR targets were determined by assessing a number of factors, such as the number of individuals expected to depart Canada in each program (e.g., when a permit expires), individuals transitioning to PR, approval rates for each program, estimated renewal rates, among other factors.
  • TR targets exclude short-term visitors with temporary resident visas (TRV) and electronic travel authorizations (eTAs) and seasonal workers because these workers do not remain in Canada for a long period of time or at the end of the calendar year and are not included in Statistics Canada’s year-end population estimates.
• In 2025, approximately 55% of new TR arrivals will come from the worker streams (TFWP and IMP), and 45% will be international students. For 2026, 41% of arrivals will be workers and 59% students, and in 2027, 44% of arrivals will be workers and 56% students.
• Asylum claimants are not part of the Levels Plan, as the government cannot control admissions volumes in the same manner it does for most immigration programs. However, since asylum claimants are included in Statistics Canada’s measurements of Canada’s NPR population, estimated asylum claimant numbers have been taken into account as part of the methodology and calculations used to set targets for students and workers, in order to achieve the 5% target.

Recent Developments

• Collaboration with other government departments occurred and extensive consultations were conducted to inform decision-making and develop the 2025-2027 Levels Plan, including with:
• Provinces and Territories (PTs): Engagement with PTs was conducted bilaterally and multilaterally, guided by the Joint Federal-Provincial-Territorial Immigration Levels Consultation Framework, as approved through the Forum of Ministers Responsible for Immigration.
  • Under the Canada-Quebec Accord, Quebec has responsibility for the selection of immigrants destined to the province (except Family Class and in-Canada refugee claimants). The Accord commits the federal government to take into consideration Quebec’s desired levels in all categories.
• Stakeholders: The Department conducted its annual consultation survey, which was shared with key stakeholders, including business representatives, educational institutions, municipalities, settlement or resettlement organizations, etc. A total of 977 stakeholders completed the survey from the 6,772 invited.
• Indigenous Peoples: Efforts continued this year to increase the response rate of Indigenous organizations. The Department invited 479 individuals from First Nations, Métis, and Inuit serving and/or representing organizations to provide feedback. This is an increase from 280 representatives in 2023.
• Virtual Sectoral Roundtable Conversations: In summer 2024, the Department organized sectoral roundtables to engage more broadly on levels planning with urban planners from various cities and towns across Canada, municipal representatives, and economists. Representatives from post-secondary institutions, the business community, labour organizations, and immigrant and asylum claimant/refugee serving organizations were also consulted to gather input on this year’s Levels Plan and their thoughts on reducing TR volumes.
• Public Opinion: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) regularly conducts public opinion research to help maintain an up-to-date understanding of Canadians’ attitudes on citizenship and immigration, which informs IRCC’s decision-making. In 2024, this included a series of online focus groups and an online survey.

Upcoming Milestones

• IRCC has begun operationalizing the 2025-2027 Levels Plan in order to meet targets for 2025.
• IRCC regularly monitors intake volumes for both temporary and permanent residents and works with partners to determine if any adjustments are needed to meet annual targets.
• Work is underway to develop the 2026-2028 Levels Plan, which will continue to include internal engagement, engagement with other government departments and PTs and partners and stakeholders.
• The 2026-2028 Levels Plan must be tabled by November 1, 2025.