Statement from the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada on the release of national modelling on the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada


April 9, 2020 - Ottawa, ON - Public Health Agency of Canada

“Today, the Government of Canada released national-level modelling on the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. The modelling attempts to show how the epidemic might unfold over the coming months based on our knowledge of how the virus behaves and the potential impact of public health measures.

It is important to be aware of the limitations and benefits of modelling. Models are not crystal balls and we cannot predict the future with them. However, they do help us to plan and they tell us that our collective actions can have a direct and significant impact on the epidemic trajectory.

While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modelling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and to save lives. We cannot prevent every death, but we must prevent all the deaths we can.

We all play a role in what the future will hold for Canada’s COVID-19 trajectory. We must continue to control the epidemic using tried and true public health measures, including staying home when possible, maintaining physical distancing, meticulous handwashing, and covering our coughs. What we do together now to stop the spread of COVID-19 will reduce the impact of the pandemic and determine how soon we can readjust our public health measures in Canada.”

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