Backgrounder: Updating Canada’s Nationally Determined Contribution

Introduction

The Paris Agreement and NDCs  

Canada’s NDC

Climate Science

What can Canada achieve?

Considerations

What other countries are doing

Conclusion and Next Steps

ANNEX I: NDC Submissions of the G20 & Norway
Jurisdiction 1st NDC Submission Updated NDC Submission
Canada Unconditional 2030 NDC: 30% below 2005 levels

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 30% below 2005 levels

(recommunicated original NDC in 2017)

Argentina

Unconditional 2030 NDC: Reduce 2030 emissions to 483MT CO2e

Conditional 2030 NDC: Reduce 2030 emissions to 369MT CO2e conditional on international support

Unconditional NDC: Reduce 2030 emissions to 359MT CO2e

Conditional 2030 NDC: N/A

Australia Unconditional 2030 NDC: 26-28% below 2005 levels

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 26-28% below 2005 levels

(recommunicated original NDC but aims to overachieve)

Brazil

Unconditional 2025 NDC: 37% below 2005 levels

Indicative 2030 NDC: 43% below 2050 levels

Unconditional 2025 NDC: 37% below 2005 levels (maintains original 2025 target)

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 43% below 2005 levels (confirmed 2030 target)

China Unconditional 2030 NDC: Peak CO2 emissions by 2030; reduce carbon intensity by 60-65% below 2005 levels by 2030 In December 2020, China announced its updated NDC will include peaking CO2 emissions before 2030; lower carbon intensity by over 65% in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
European Union (including 27 member states) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 35.3% below 2005 levels in 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 55% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 51.5% below 2005 levels in 2030)
France Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 35.3% below 2005 levels in 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 55% below 1990 levels (EU target) (equivalent to 51.5% below 2005 levels in 2030)
Germany Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 35.3% below 2005 levels in 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 55% below 1990 levels (EU target) (equivalent to 51.5% below 2005 levels in 2030)
India Unconditional 2030 NDC: Reduce GHG intensity 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030 India has not indicated whether it will update its NDC
Italy Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 35.3% below 2005 levels in 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 55% below 1990 levels (EU target) (equivalent to 51.5% below 2005 levels in 2030)
Japan Unconditional 2030 NDC: 26% below 2013 levels (equivalent to 24.4% below 2005 levels in 2030)

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 26% below 2013 levels (equivalent to 24.4% below 2005 levels in 2030)

(recommunicated original NDC in March 2020)

Mexico

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 25% reduction in GHG and Short Lived Climate Pollutants emissions by 2030 compared to BAU scenario, equivalent to 22% reduction in GHGs and 51% reduction in Black Carbon

Conditional 2030 NDC: 36% reduction in GHG emissions below business-as-usual and a 70% reduction in black carbon in 2030, conditional on international support and agreements on an international carbon price and carbon border adjustments

Unconditional 2030 NDC: 25% reduction in GHG and Short Lived Climate Pollutants emissions by 2030 compared to BAU scenario, equivalent to 22% reduction in GHGs and 51% reduction in Black Carbon

Conditional 2030 NDC: 36% reduction below business-as-usual emissions and a 70% reduction in black carbon in 2030, conditional on international support and agreements on an international carbon price and carbon border adjustments

(recommunicated original NDC)

New Zealand Unconditional 2030 NDC: 30% below 2005 levels

The Government of New Zealand has committed to begin revision of their NDC this year, per the advice of the independent Climate Change Commission (report released January 2021)

The Commission indicated that the Government’s new target will need to far exceed a 35% reduction target, but has not proposed a specific figure

Norway Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels Unconditional 2030 NDC: 50-55% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 53.6%-58.2% below 2005 levels by 2030)
Russia Intended unconditional 2030 NDC:  Limit GHG emissions to 70-75% of 1990 levels by 2030 subject to maximum possible account of absorbing capacity of forests (25-30% below 1990 levels by 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: Limit GHG emissions to 70% of 1990 levels taking into account maximum possible absorbing capacity of forests and other ecosystems, and subject to sustainable and balanced socioeconomic development of Russia (30% below 1990 levels by 2030)
Saudi Arabia Conditional 2030 NDC: Reduce up to 130MT CO2e below business-as-usual emissions by 2030 conditional on economic conditions Saudi Arabia has not indicated whether it will update its NDC
South Africa Unconditional 2030 NDC: Limit 2025-2030 emissions to between 398-614MT CO2e (17 to 78% above 1990 levels by 2030) South Africa has committed to update its NDC by the end of 2020
South Korea Unconditional 2030 NDC: 37% reduction below business-as-usual emissions by 2030 Unconditional 2030 NDC: 24.4% below 2017 levels by 2030 (equivalent to 4.1% below 2005 levels by 2030)
Turkey

Intended unconditional 2030 NDC: up to 21% below business-as-usual emissions by 2030

(Turkey has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement)

Turkey has not indicated whether it will updated its intended NDC.
United Kingdom Unconditional 2030 NDC: 40% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 35.3% below 2005 levels in 2030) Unconditional 2030 NDC: 68% below 1990 levels (equivalent to 63.3% below 2005 levels in 2030)
United States
Unconditional 2025 NDC: 26-28% below 2005 levels The U.S. has not yet submitted an updated 2030 NDC.
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