Operating context and key risks
Operating context
National Defence policies and initiatives are informed by the complex and ever-evolving security context in which the CAF operate. Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE), Canada’s defence policy, identifies three broad trends that will continue to shape the modern security environment: the evolving balance of power, the changing nature of conflict, and rapid advancements of technology.
The relative power of states is shifting, creating a more diffuse environment. This changing global balance of power is characterized by a return to major power competition, territorial disputes, and challenges to the rules-based international order. While states remain the dominant actors, non-state actors, including terrorist and violent extremist organizations, are finding ways to exercise greater influence and add complexity to the operating environment. Additionally, increased interest and activity in the Arctic will result in greater demands to which the CAF must be able to respond.
The characteristics of conflicts, from its causes to the actors involved and their methods of warfare, have evolved rapidly in recent years. For example, combinations of factors, such as economic inequality and climate change, can cause or exacerbate tensions. Hybrid methods, which combine conventional and unconventional tactics by state and non-state actors, present new challenges for Canada in terms of detection, attribution, and response. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology is also expected to grow.
Rapid advancements in technology, particularly in the space and cyber domains, can be great enablers for the CAF, but they are also a source of new threats. It is essential for the CAF to keep pace with technological developments to maintain its interoperability with allied forces and an edge over adversaries.
A common implication of these trends is that they increasingly transcend national borders and, if left unchecked, could erode the relative safety that Canada’s geography has historically provided. This requires Canada to help promote peace and stability abroad in order to maintain security at home.
Against the backdrop of this ever-evolving operating context, Defence must ensure it is prepared to execute its mandate. SSE lays out a comprehensive, fully costed plan to ensure that the women and men of the CAF have the tools that they need to face current and future challenges to the global security environment. It will orient the efforts of the DND/CAF over the next 20 years to provide Canada with an agile, multipurpose, combat-ready military that can conduct the full spectrum of military operations and is able to simultaneously operate in multiple theatres.
In an effort to further improve transparency and communications with Canadians regarding our department’s mandate, the results we seek and the means by which we achieve them, Defence moved to its new Departmental Results Framework and Program Inventory for FY 2018-19 as per the Treasury Board Policy on Results. This will this be the last Departmental Results Report using the Program Alignment Architecture.
Key risks
As articulated in the section on operating context, the DND/CAF is influenced by a wide range of external and internal factors, both domestic and international, that have an impact on how we carry out our mandate. These factors present both risks and opportunities, which are taken into account as we deliver on our mandate.
Key risks are identified by aggregating risk information from internal and external sources, and considering it in the context of our mandate. Our key risks are articulated in Defence Plan 2016-2019 as follows:
- Defence readiness;
- Defence Team capacity;
- Strategic resilience;
- Capability delivery;
- Integrated information management / information technology;
- Financial controls and reporting of inventory and assets; and
- Security.
A number of controls are in place to respond to these risks. Response strategy initiatives covered in this report are outlined in the following table. We will continue to monitor emerging issues, developments and trends to anticipate and mitigate the risks associated with them. In doing so, we will remain prepared to respond and provide the Government of Canada with advice and options underpinned by ready forces and capabilities.
Key risks
Risks | Mitigating strategy and effectiveness | Link to department’s Programs | Link to mandate letter commitments and any government-wide or departmental priorities |
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Defence Readiness There is a risk that DND will not have sufficient force elements of appropriate readiness to respond to concurrent missions or sequential missions before reconstitution is complete. This includes missions that are planned in advance, as well as responses to unexpected events, which by their nature are unpredictable in time, number, location and effect.
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Program 3.0: Defence Ready Force Element Production Program 5.0: Defence Capability Development and Research |
Ensuring CAF Posture and Readiness. Work with the Minister of Foreign Affairs to renew Canada’s commitment to United Nations peace operations. Maintain Canada’s strong commitments to the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) and to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). |
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Program 3.0: Defence Ready Force Element Production |
Ensuring CAF Posture and Readiness. Work with the Minister of Foreign Affairs to renew Canada’s commitment to United Nations peace operations. Maintain Canada’s strong commitments to the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) and to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). |
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Defence Team Capacity There is a risk that National Defence will not have the right number of personnel with the right competency, at the right place, and at the right time, which may affect its capability to fulfill current or future Government of Canada and National Defence expectations.
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production Program 5.0: Defence Capability Development and Research Internal Services |
Strengthening the Defence Team. Work with senior leaders of the Canadian Armed Forces to establish and maintain a workplace free from harassment and discrimination. Work with the Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence to reduce complexity, overhaul service delivery and strengthen partnerships between National Defence and Veterans Affairs. Work with the Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence to develop a suicide prevention strategy for Canadian Armed Forces personnel and veterans. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production Internal Services |
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Strategic Resilience There is a risk that unexpected events may change the strategic picture such that it requires significant changes to the strategic level of resource planning and result in disruption to National Defence’s business operations. |
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Program 2.0: Defence Services and Contributions to Government Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production Program 5.0: Defence Capability Development and Research Internal Services |
Ensuring Defence Resource Stewardship and Affordability. Support the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness in a review of existing measures to protect Canadians and our critical infrastructure from cyber-threats. Conduct an open and transparent review process to create a new defence strategy for Canada, replacing the now-outdated Canada First Defence Strategy. |
Capability Delivery There is a risk that policy and the resultant complexity of development, program approval and procurement processes will prevent National Defence from meeting its investment targets in critical physical assets (equipment, physical and information infrastructure and real property) in a timely, sustainable and affordable manner to enable CAF operations. This risk is about failing to close gaps, or preventing gaps in capabilities that could lead to future mission failure. |
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Internal Services |
Ensuring Defence Resource Stewardship and Affordability. Conduct an open and transparent review process to create a new defence strategy for Canada, replacing the now-outdated Canada First Defence Strategy. Ensure that the Canadian Armed Forces have the equipment they need. |
Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
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Integrated Information Management / Information Technology There is a risk to National Defence if it does not take advantage of emerging technology to further an integrated IM/IT infrastructure that can provide a flexible and agile information environment conducive to efficient interoperable joint CAF operations and executive decision making, while achieving value for money and demonstrating sound stewardship. Failure to do so could also imperil the Command and Control (C2) of CAF operations at home and abroad, as well as the effective management of the defence enterprise. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
Ensuring Sustainable Operational Excellence. Strengthening the Defence Team. Ensuring Defence Resource Stewardship and Affordability. Support the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness in a review of existing measures to protect Canadians and our critical infrastructure from cyber-threats. Conduct an open and transparent review process to create a new defence strategy for Canada, replacing the now-outdated Canada First Defence Strategy. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production Program 5.0: Defence Capability Development and Research Internal Services |
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Program 1.0: Defence Combat and Support Operations Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
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Financial Controls and Reporting of Inventory and Assets There is a risk that without the proper financial processes and controls in place, the financial reporting of inventory and capital assets in the Public Accounts of Canada and the Departmental Financial Statements may not accurately reflect the true value of the department’s asset holdings, which may result in a loss of confidence in the department. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production Internal Services |
Ensuring Defence Resource Stewardship and Affordability. Ensure that the Canadian Armed Forces have the equipment they need. Conduct an open and transparent review process to create a new defence strategy for Canada, replacing the now-outdated Canada First Defence Strategy. |
Security There is a risk that some elements of the Defence Security Program are insufficient to assure the protection of all assets and the continuity of critical services in support of readiness, capacity and operational capability. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
Ensuring Sustainable Operational Excellence. |
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Program 4.0: Defence Capability Element Production |
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Program 5.0: Defence Capability Development and Research |
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