Challenge Statement

The Department of National Defence (DND) is looking to identify novel and innovative strategies, mechanisms and enabling technologies to anticipate and deter potential international crises and war in the 21st Century.

Background and Context

The resurgence of major power competition, emerging threats from non-state actors, and challenges in the space and cyber domains have returned deterrence to the centre of defence thinking. Canada benefits from the deterrent effect provided by its core alliances (NORAD and NATO) and, through Strong, Secure, Engaged, has communicated how it takes seriously its responsibility to contribute to collective efforts to deter aggression by potential adversaries in all domains. At its core, deterrence is about discouraging a potential adversary from doing something harmful before they do it. Deterrence requires influencing an adversary’s risk calculus on both sides of the cost-benefit equation, and closely linking military means and activities with political and diplomatic efforts. Deterrence is context-based, and therefore it is necessary to continue to evolve Canada’s deterrence strategies to keep pace with the changing global environment. In the context of re-examining how to deter a wide spectrum of challenges to the international order, including those related to “hybrid warfare”, DND has recognized that there may exist as-yet unidentified possibilities for advancing deterrence concepts and practice.

Existing deterrence concepts and theory were largely developed during the Cold War, with a focus on the prevention of nuclear war. Since the end of that era, the world has seen much sociological and technological change, resulting in challenges to some of the underpinning principles of deterrence. What used to be a relatively simplistic peer-to-peer calculation in a limited number of areas is now a many-on-many situation where all players have a variety of tools at their disposal.

Due to this increase in complexity, there lies renewed opportunity to look at various aspects of deterrence. This could include areas such as cognitive distortion / deception in the decision-making process, the understanding of adversaries (both state and non-state actors) and their associated motivations, risk-tolerances, and susceptibility to coercion. Understanding of individual and group psychology and behaviours as well as sociological and ideological concepts all play a strong role in the effectiveness of deterrence strategies. Thanks to globalization and advances in technology, these fields are also being exploited by corporations and individuals in an attempt to control and influence behaviours of customers and competitors alike. The complexity of developing understanding in these areas is compounded by the expanded use of non-traditional warfighting domains such as cyber and space, where concepts such as protection and attribution may be more challenging.

Outcomes and Considerations

The desired outcome of this research effort is a set of tools, techniques, and concepts for the purpose of proactive deterrence from a comprehensive perspective. As such, this type of research could include, but is not limited to, a broad range of deliverables, such as the development of a forecasting capability, game theory concepts for assessing emerging instability or conflict, and novel strategies for defence diplomacy. Researchers should look to exploit both traditional and non-traditional areas of deterrence. Specifically, it is recognized that the concepts of deterrence are also developed and applied outside of the defence context. Deterrence and the influencing of behaviour through anticipated consequences can be seen in the activities of corporations, political bodies, and individuals as well as nations and terrorist groups. Sociology, individual and group psychology, cognitive theory, and data analytics are playing a large role in the shaping of individual and corporation behaviors.

It is the combination of traditional and contemporary thinking that is being sought to advance deterrence practice as it applies to the physical, cognitive and cyber domains.