Language selection

Government of Canada / Gouvernement du Canada

Search

Addressing labour shortages

From: Employment and Social Development Canada

Alternate formats

Addressing labour shortages (complete version) [PDF – 591 KB]

Current labour market conditions

Unemployment rates have been falling and job vacancies increasing in most regions, leading to labour shortages

Figure 1: Labour market pressures at-a-glance
Figure 1 – Text version
Table 1: Labour market pressures at-a-glance
Province Unemployed to job vacancy ratio Labour shortage characterization
British Columbia 1.1 Higher
Alberta 2.9 Medium
Saskatchewan 3.0 Medium
Manitoba 2.3 Higher
Ontario 2.1 Higher
Quebec 1.7 Higher
New Brunswick 3.3 Medium
Nova Scotia 2.7 Medium
Prince Edward Island 3.8 Lower
Newfoundland and Labrador 6.7 Lower

Note: Provinces characterized with having “Higher” labour shortages are those who have 2.5 or less unemployed persons per job vacancy. Provinces with between 2.5 and 3.5 unemployed persons per job vacancy are deemed to have Medium labour shortages and provinces with more than 3.5 unemployed persons per job vacancy are characterized as having Lower labour shortages.

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.

Figure 1.1: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time: Canada
Figure 1.1 – Text version
Table 1.1: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time – Canada
Year Unemployment rate (Percent) Lowest unemployment rate since 1976 (Percent) Job vacancies (Thousands)
2004 7.2% 5.8% N/A
2005 6.8% 5.8% N/A
2006 6.3% 5.8% N/A
2007 6.0% 5.8% N/A
2008 6.1% 5.8% N/A
2009 8.3% 5.8% N/A
2010 8.1% 5.8% N/A
2011 7.5% 5.8% 237.1
2012 7.3% 5.8% 254.5
2013 7.1% 5.8% 220.8
2014 6.9% 5.8% 230
2015 6.9% 5.8% 230.8
2016 7.0% 5.8% 211.4
2017 6.3% 5.8% 272.3
2018 5.8% 5.8% 340.9

Source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours from Statistics Canada

Figure 1.2: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region: Atlantic
Figure 1.2 – Text version
Table 1.2: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region – Atlantic
Year Unemployment rate (Percent) Lowest unemployment rate since 1976 (Percent) Job vacancies (Thousands)
2004 10.7% 9.1% N/A
2005 10.4% 9.1% N/A
2006 9.8% 9.1% N/A
2007 9.1% 9.1% N/A
2008 9.3% 9.1% N/A
2009 10.5% 9.1% N/A
2010 10.7% 9.1% N/A
2011 10.1% 9.1% 12
2012 10.3% 9.1% 12.2
2013 10.2% 9.1% 10.4
2014 10.0% 9.1% 9.9
2015 10.0% 9.1% 11.7
2016 10.0% 9.1% 10.6
2017 9.7% 9.1% 12.4
2018 9.2% 9.1% 15.5

Note: The Atlantic region here consists of the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

Source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours from Statistics Canada

Figure 1.3: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region: Prairies
Figure 1.3 – Text version
Table 1.3: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region – Prairies
Year Unemployment rate (Percent) Lowest unemployment rate since 1976 (Percent) Job vacancies (Thousands)
2004 4.9% 3.8% N/A
2005 4.3% 3.8% N/A
2006 3.8% 3.8% N/A
2007 3.8% 3.8% N/A
2008 3.8% 3.8% N/A
2009 6.0% 3.8% N/A
2010 6.1% 3.8% N/A
2011 5.4% 3.8% 65
2012 4.7% 3.8% 84.2
2013 4.7% 3.8% 68.5
2014 4.7% 3.8% 66.6
2015 5.8% 3.8% 47.9
2016 7.5% 3.8% 39.9
2017 7.2% 3.8% 47.7
2018 6.4% 3.8% 54.5

Note: The Prairies here consist of the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours from Statistics Canada

Figure 1.4: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region: British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec
Figure 1.4 – Text version
Table 1.4: Unemployment rates and job vacancies over time by region – British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec
Year Unemployment rate (Percent) Lowest unemployment rate since 1976 (Percent) Job vacancies (Thousands)
2004 7.2% 5.6% N/A
2005 6.8% 5.6% N/A
2006 6.5% 5.6% N/A
2007 6.3% 5.6% N/A
2008 7.0% 5.6% N/A
2009 8.7% 5.6% N/A
2010 8.3% 5.6% N/A
2011 7.7% 5.6% 159.0
2012 7.6% 5.6% 157.0
2013 7.3% 5.6% 140.6
2014 7.2% 5.6% 150.4
2015 6.9% 5.6% 170.0
2016 6.5% 5.6% 160.3
2017 5.8% 5.6% 211.4
2018 5.6% 5.6% 269.9

Note: British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec were grouped due to similar recent trends in unemployment and job vacancies.

Source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours from Statistics Canada

… population aging will continue to put downward pressure on labour force participation and labour force growth

Figure 2: Population aging will continue to put downward pressure on labour force participation and labour force growth
Figure 2 – Text version
Table 2: Population aging will continue to put downward pressure on labour force participation and labour force growth
Year Participation rate (Actual) Participation rate (Projected) Share of Canadian working age population aged 55 and above (Actual) Share of Canadian working age population aged 55 and above (Projected)
1990 67.1 N/A 24.9 N/A
1991 66.6 N/A 25 N/A
1992 65.7 N/A 25.1 N/A
1993 65.3 N/A 25.2 N/A
1994 65.2 N/A 25.3 N/A
1995 64.8 N/A 25.4 N/A
1996 64.7 N/A 25.5 N/A
1997 64.9 N/A 25.7 N/A
1998 65.1 N/A 26 N/A
1999 65.5 N/A 26.2 N/A
2000 65.8 N/A 26.5 N/A
2001 65.9 N/A 27.2 N/A
2002 66.9 N/A 27.7 N/A
2003 67.6 N/A 28.3 N/A
2004 67.5 N/A 28.8 N/A
2005 67.1 N/A 29.2 N/A
2006 67 N/A 29.8 N/A
2007 67.4 N/A 30.3 N/A
2008 67.6 N/A 30.8 N/A
2009 67.1 N/A 31.3 N/A
2010 66.9 N/A 32 N/A
2011 66.7 N/A 32.6 N/A
2012 66.5 N/A 33.2 N/A
2013 66.5 N/A 33.9 N/A
2014 66 N/A 34.6 N/A
2015 65.8 N/A 35.4 N/A
2016 65.7 N/A 36 N/A
2017 65.8 N/A 36.6 N/A
2018 65.4 65.4 37.1 37.1
2019 N/A 65.7 N/A 37.7
2020 N/A 65.5 N/A 38.2
2021 N/A 65.3 N/A 38.6
2022 N/A 65.1 N/A 38.8
2023 N/A 64.9 N/A 39
2024 N/A 64.7 N/A 39.2
2025 N/A 64.5 N/A 39.4
2026 N/A 64.3 N/A 39.6
2027 N/A 64.1 N/A 39.7
2028 N/A 63.9 N/A 39.8

Source: Calculated using Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey and the Demographic Projections from Statistics Canada, ESDC COPS 2019 Projections (2019 to 2028).

Possible pathways to address labour shortages

New labour market participants

Increasing skilled immigration levels and improving immigrant participation rates would help address labour shortages. However, new graduates will continue to be the largest source of new labour...

Figure 3: Major outflows and inflows of labour market participants
Figure 3 – Text version
Table 3: Major outflows and inflows of labour market participants
Labour force flows 2006 2016 2026
Total outflows -280,000 -425,000 -484,200
Deaths and emigrants -72,400 -75,900 -83,900
Retirements  -207,600 -349,100 -400,300
Total inflows 503,200 600,900 659,300
New immigrants* (percent of total immigration) 109,500 (43.0%)* 141,100 (44.0%)* 151,300 (45.2%)*
School leavers 393,700 459,800 508,000

Source: Statistics Canada, ESDC Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) 2017 Projections

*Note: This percentage reflects the share of all new immigrants that are non-students aged 15 and over who are participating in the labour force.

...but, they may not be adequately prepared to meet labour market needs.

Source: McKinsey & Company, 2015

Women, older workers and underrepresented groups

Narrowing the participation gap of groups underrepresented in the labour force would help mitigate the decline in participation rates.

Figure 4: Participation gap of groups underrepresented in the labour force
Figure 4 – Text version
Table 4: Participation gap of groups underrepresented in the labour force
Underrepresented and comparator groups Participation rate (Percentage) Participation rate gap (Percentage) Potential additional workers if the participation rate gap were closed (thousands)* Share of the labour force represented by the potential workers added to the labour market if the participation rate gap were closed (Percentage)
Women aged 15 years and above 61.3% 8.3% 1,200 6.1%
Men aged 15 years and above 69.6% N/A N/A N/A
Canadian older workers aged 55 years and above 37.8% 9.2% 1,000 5.2%
Japanese older workers aged 55 years and above 47.0% N/A N/A N/A
Persons with disabilities with the potential to work aged 25 to 64 years 64.7% 20.3% 445 2.3%
Persons without disabilities aged 25 to 64 years 85.0% N/A N/A N/A
Canadian older workers aged 55 years and above 37.8% 9.2% 369 1.9%
Japanese older workers aged 55 years and above 47.0% N/A N/A N/A
Immigrants aged 15 years and above 63.8% 2.3% 206 1.0%
Canadian born aged 15 years and above 66.1% N/A N/A N/A
Indigenous People aged 15 years and above on and off reserve 61.4% 4% 48 0.2%
Non-Indigenous People aged 15 years and above 65.4% N/A N/A N/A

*Note: These illustrative figures cannot be summed as they are not mutually exclusive, leading to double or triple counting.

Source: Census Data, Labour Force Survey, and Canada Survey on Disability from Statistics Canada; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data.

Increasing permanently new immigration by 80K (or 25%) would have the same impact on the labour force after 10 years than that obtained from closing a third of all the participation rate gaps. However, additional immigrants would also raise the demand for labour and therefore have a smaller impact on reducing labour shortages.

Figure 5: Impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps of the underrepresented groups by 2028
Figure 5 – Text version
Table 5.1: Impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps of the underrepresented groups by 2028
Year Overall labour market participation rate (Percentage) Projected change in the overall participation rate between 2018 and 2028 (Percentage points)
2018 65.4% N/A
2028 (Projection) 63.9% -1.50
Table 5.2: Impact on the gross and net impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps of the underrepresented groups by 2028
Underrepresented group Gross impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps by 2028 (Percentage points) Net impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps by 2028 (Percentage points)
Women +0.7 +0.7
Older workers +0.5 +0.4
Persons with disabilities +0.2 +0.1
Immigrants +0.2 +0.1
Indigenous people +0.04 +0.02
Residual between the net impact on the overall participation rate of closing a third of the participation rate gaps of all underrepresented groups by 2028 and the difference in the projected overall participation rate between 2018-2028. +0.2 +0.2

*Note: Estimates are approximates. Some individuals can belong to two or more underrepresented groups. For example, there could be older immigrant women with a disability. Efforts were made to count these individuals only once. The overlay of the bars intends to reflect this overlap. 

Source: COPS 2019 Projections, ESDC; and author’s calculations using the Labour Force Survey, 2016 Census and the 2017 Canadian Survey on Disability from Statistics Canada.

Technology will contribute to closing the remaining gap

Technological innovation will affect the size and composition of labour demand in the future.

Figure 6: Global industrial robot sales doubled between 2013 to 2017 and are expected to continue growing (thousands of units)
Figure 6 – Text version
Table 6: Global industrial robot sales doubled between 2013 to 2017 and are expected to continue growing (thousands of units)
Year Annual worldwide supply of industrial robots (Actual) Annual worldwide supply of industrial robots (Forecast) Percent change between 2017 to 2021
2009 60 N/A N/A
2010 121 N/A N/A
2011 166 N/A N/A
2012 159 N/A N/A
2013 178 N/A N/A
2014 221 N/A N/A
2015 254 N/A N/A
2016 294 N/A N/A
2017 381 N/A N/A
2018 N/A 421 N/A
2019 N/A 484 N/A
2020 N/A 553 N/A
2021 N/A 630 65.4%

Source: International Federation of Robotics, 2018

New technologies will require a workforce that is adaptable and capable of upskilling/reskilling and could result in a significant disruption to the labour market (see Changing Nature of Work placemat).

Page details

Date modified: