5. Conclusions
Relevance
There is a demonstrated need to improve the ecological health of Lake Winnipeg. The program is aligned with federal government priorities, and while management of freshwater resources is a shared federal and provincial/territorial responsibility, ongoing involvement of the federal government in Lake Winnipeg is warranted given the transboundary nature of the Lake Winnipeg Basin, the national importance of Lake Winnipeg, and the unique capacity of the federal government to contribute in areas such as science and the provision of funding to support local action.
Performance – effectiveness
With respect to the program’s science pillar, science work plans are developed annually based on the original commitments of the LWBI and coordination with other stakeholders. Program efforts to apply and extend the WASP to model nutrient scenarios in Lake Winnipeg have supported setting of nutrient loading targets in the basin. This modelling work is ongoing, due to the complexity of the ecosystem and the need to better understand the impacts of evolving issues such as invasive species, climate change and the recirculation of nutrients. While progress is being made toward an improved understanding of the strategies for reducing nutrients in the basin, there is a strong desire to increase understanding of the kinds of nutrient management actions that will be most effective in the context of the local climate and geographical features of the basin.
The science pillar benefits from the work of the LWRC, which facilitates sharing of research among scientists working in the Lake Winnipeg Basin. The LWBIN, which is funded by the program to ensure that research and monitoring data are available for the use of other stakeholders in the Basin, is not yet completely functional. Broader dissemination of research and data was noted as an area for improvement.
With respect to the stewardship pillar, the immediate outcomes of engaging stakeholders in the LWBSF have largely been met as the program is well known among stakeholders in the Lake Winnipeg Basin, and requests for funds to support high-quality projects exceed the amount of available funds. Projects funded by the LWBSF involve multiple partner organizations, which also provide additional in-kind or cash contributions to the project, however, Indigenous communities around Lake Winnipeg are under-represented in the program, both as project applicants and partners.
Projects funded by the LWBSF are undertaking varied research and stewardship activities, many of which address priority concerns in the Red River watershed, which contributes a large portion of the nutrients flowing into Lake Winnipeg. The amount of nutrients reduced by projects will meet or exceed the targets set by the program and are much greater than the amounts addressed in Phase I, however, these reductions remain extremely small in relation to the overall amount of phosphorus estimated to be released or entering Lake Winnipeg annually. Transfer of knowledge and education regarding the most effective practices was viewed as a priority in order to continue to increase awareness and action on the part of organizations and individuals.
The Transboundary partnerships pillar includes work with the Province of Manitoba under an effective MOU, as well as through its leadership and participation with the transboundary water management boards. While the program is also impacted by the constraints of other organizations, during Phase II of the LWBI nutrient objectives for Lake Winnipeg were set by Manitoba, and the PPWB and the Red River Watershed Management Board (RRWMB) are making progress in establishing nutrient objectives. Less progress has been made with the Province of Manitoba on a commitment in the MOU Science Subsidiary Arrangement to develop, monitor and publish State of the Lake Indicators.
In terms of the program’s long-term outcome of improving the ecological integrity of Lake Winnipeg, evidence is lacking due largely to the fact that the State of the Lake indicators are not developed and implemented. However, the literature and the views of key stakeholders suggest that there has been limited or no improvement in water quality in Lake Winnipeg. As mentioned, the funds dedicated to on-the-ground stewardship actions, while increased in Phase II, in themselves lead to nutrient reductions that are small in relation to the total phosphorus entering the lake. Further, external factors such as invasive species, seasonal weather events linked to climate change, and nutrient cycling are impacting nutrient loadings and the response of the lake to interventions.
Performance – efficiency and economy
The LWBI is a well-managed program employing a number of practices that contribute to efficiency and funding applicants are generally satisfied with ECCC’s delivery of the program.
While there are many entities involved in the Lake Winnipeg Basin, governance mechanisms effectively support coordination and coherence of efforts, and all pillars are actively involved in collaborations with the numerous organizations and water management bodies active in the Lake Winnipeg Basin. Engagement of Indigenous groups and communities in the Lake Winnipeg Basin is in the early stages, but will be facilitated by the recently established Lake Winnipeg Indigenous Collective.
The evaluation evidence indicates that the LWBI is being implemented as planned, and its design, with the three pillars of science, stewardship and transboundary partnerships, remains a relevant and logical approach for organizing the program. An apparent discrepancy was identified between the program’s design and its intended outcomes as identified in the program’s logic model. The program’s design is not fully reflected in the logic model and, in the context of the program’s current activities, the logic model does not reflect a realistic pathway from intermediate to final outcomes that is likely to result in restoration of the lake’s ecological health.
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