Appendix 1: Scenario Analysis: Fleet Average NOx Emissions in Canada - Projection of Future Canadian Sales Mix by Vehicle Class

Figure 2 presents an inventory and forecast of the percentage of light-duty trucks sales in the combined Canadian car and light-duty truck fleet, for the years 1979 to 2006, based on the data from three sources: Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)¹ , Industry Canada⁴ and Automotive News²,³.

The figure shows light-duty truck sales in Canada over the years 1979 to 2006 as a percentage of the combined light-duty vehicle and light-duty truck fleet. Data from three different sources is presented. NRCan data shows the percentage of light-duty trucks increasing from 11% in 1979 to 43% in 1998, with slight fluctuations up and down throughout the years. Data from Industry Canada shows the percentage of light-duty trucks increasing from 37% in 1991 to 46% in 1999. The Automotive News data and forecast shows the percentage of light-duty trucks remaining fairly constant at 47% from 1997 to 2006 with a minor fluctuation down to 44% in 2001.

The original image of the Figure is available in the PDF version.

As indicated in Table 2, the percentage of 2000 model year light-duty trucks in the Canadian combined car and light-duty truck fleet is estimated to be about 40% (2000 registration data). In addition, the following three percentages of light-duty trucks, derived from data in Figure 2, are used to form the basis of scenarios for estimating potential Canadian fleet average NO_xemission rates:

• The Automotive News forecast suggests that the percentage of light-duty truck sales in the Canadian fleet will level off at approximately 47% . Based on the apparent trend from 1997 to 2006, it is assumed that the Canadian percentage of light-duty truck sales in 2009 can be estimated at approximately 47%;
• The Automotive News forecast also suggests that the percentage of light-duty truck sales in Canada will remain consistently about 5% lower than that in the U.S. This apparent trend can be used in conjunction with a U.S. EPA assumption that the percentage of light-duty truck sales in the U.S. will increase to 60% and then level off² (see section 5). Based on these two assumptions, a 55% truck scenario is examined; and
• Past sales data from Natural Resources Canada and Industry Canada show an increase in the percentage of light-duty truck sales over time. If the current rate of incline shown in this data is assumed to continue, the percentage of light-duty truck sales in the fleet could be as high as 60% in the year 2009.

In the subsequent analysis to determine potential Canadian NO_x fleet average emission rates, the percentage distribution between the LDT 1-4 classes is held constant at the 2000 levels described in the previous section while the overall percentage of light-duty truck sales in the combined Canadian fleet is varied within a range of 40 to 60%.

¹Schingh, Marie, Erik Brunet, Patrick Gosselin, "Canadian New Light Duty Vehicles: Trends in Fuel Consumption and Characteristics (1988-1998)," Natural Resources Canada, July 6, 2000.
²U.S. EPA, "Accounting for the Tier 2 and Heavy-Duty 2005/2007 Requirements in MOBILE6", EPA420-R-01-057, November 2001.