Appendix: Modelling the Incidence and Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infection and its Sequelae in Canada, 2007


Refinements, Modifications and Updates for HCV Model Canada, 2007


Populations updated to 2007 using 2006 census data
Use revised estimations and projections for population, births and immigrants
Adjust demographic model to fit census estimates

Exposure categories

Reworked modelling of hemophilia population to improve stability

Transition probabilities

New literature review and revision of transition parameters


Transfusion: reduced HCV incidence in response to feedback and new data on residual risk
Hemophilia: reduced HCV incidence in response to new data on HCV risk
Provincial/territorial estimates: Derived weights for interpolating HCV infections to provinces/territories for each exposure category, incorporating 1998 model, population and EHSSS data


Fit HIV/HCV co-infection to 2001 model carried out for Health Canada


Obtained new EHSSS data for adjustment of final model

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