Preface: Cancer incidence in Canada: trends and projections (1983-2032) - HPCDP: Volume 35, Supplement 1, Spring 2015

Preface

https://doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp.35.S1.01

This report provides estimates of the projected cancer burden in Canada as well as in the provinces and territories, to the year 2032. These estimates are based on current trends and, given the latency period of most cancers, are not unreasonable.

The information provides a timely benchmark to measure progress and should be a valuable resource for future cancer control and care.

The overall cancer incidence rate is projected to remain relatively constant over the next 28 years, with a 5% decline for males and a 4% increase for females. The decline in smoking-related cancers, particularly in males, will be balanced by increases in thyroid, uterus and liver cancers. Furthermore, the growth and aging of the population will mean that the numbers of new cases per year are projected to increase by 84% for men and 74% for women. Our population trends will overwhelm even those areas where we expect to see moderate improvements in rates and will result in much higher numbers of new cases. Clearly, more effort is needed if we are to succeed in significantly reducing the rates, the numbers and the overall burden of cancer.

The importance of cancer prevention is heightened by the lack of large improvements in survival for most cancers. Cancer prevention is hampered by the relative complexity of cancer biology; cancer is many different diseases often with diverse and poorly understood etiologies. Although much is known, control efforts have been mixed. The large declines in smoking-related cancers reflect the success of tobacco control efforts over almost 50 years. However, current attempts to control the obesity epidemic and decrease sedentary lifestyles have not yet been successful and clearly need to be a major focus of future efforts in cancer prevention.

Howard Morrison, PhD
Former Director, Science Integration Division, Public Health Agency of Canada
Former Editor-in-Chief, Chronic Diseases and Injuries in Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada

Purpose and intended audience

Each year, the Canadian Cancer Statistics publication provides an estimate of expected case counts and rates for common cancer sites for the current year in Canada as a whole and in the provinces and territories. This monograph expands on the Canadian Cancer Statistics publication by providing historical and projected cancer incidence frequencies and rates at national and regional levels from 1983 to 2032. The aim is that this monograph will be an important resource for health researchers and planners. Most importantly, it is hoped the monograph will:

• provide evidence-based input for the development of public health policy priorities at the regional and national levels; and
• guide public health officials in planning strategy including designing and evaluating preventive interventions and planning resources (treatment requirements) and infrastructure for future cancer control and care intended to reduce the burden of cancer in Canada.