Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada: executive summary 2025

As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, Canada is required to prepare an annual national inventory of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sources and removals by sinks by April 15 of each year. The following represents Canada's official national greenhouse gas inventory for 2025, including emissions and removals of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) in five sectors (Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use [IPPU], Agriculture, Waste, and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry [LULUCF]), for the years 1990 to 2023.

ES.1 Key Points

• In 2023, Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂ eq),^{Footnote 1} a decrease of 65 Mt (8.5%) from 2005 (excluding the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector), and a decrease of 6.0 Mt (0.9%) from 2022
• Emissions from electricity decreased by 67 Mt (-58%) over this period driven by the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation. Oil and gas emissions increased by 13 Mt (7%), although emissions peaked in 2014 at 228 Mt and have since decreased by 20 Mt (-9%) to 208 Mt in 2023, consistent with measured decreases of fugitive methane sources in recent years
• The emissions intensity for the entire Canadian economy (GHG per gross domestic product [GDP]) has continued to decline; in 2023 it had declined by 45% since 1990 and by 34% since 2005
• As with every National Inventory Report (NIR) edition, improvements have been implemented resulting in revisions to previously published data. Overall, this edition of the inventory incorporates downward revisions of 2.8 Mt in 2005 and 7.9 Mt in 2022, relative to the previously published inventory in 2024. Enhanced methods use Canadian-specific studies and knowledge, facilitate the adoption of new scientific data and better reflect evolving technologies and industry practices
• Canada’s NIR is a scientific report which, along with other publications such as Canada’s Biennial Transparency Report and Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, informs and supports decision-making to reduce Canada’s GHG emissions and combat climate change
• Consistent with Canada's Nationally Determined Contribution, progress towards Canada’s targets is measured by combining information from Canada’s NIR to its LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) contribution in accordance with Canada’s approach to LULUCF accounting, which is reported separately in Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report

ES.2 Introduction

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty established in 1992 to cooperatively address climate change issues. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Canada ratified the UNFCCC in 1992, and the Convention came into force in 1994. To strengthen the global response to climate change, multiple international agreements were introduced under the UNFCCC. The most recent one is the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty with the overarching goal to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Canada, recognizing the significance of collective action, ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016, and the Agreement entered into force the same year. Since then, Canada adopted 2005 as the base year for its GHG emission reduction targets.

To achieve its objective and implement its provisions, the Paris Agreement sets out several guiding principles and commitments. Specifically, Article 13 establishes an enhanced transparency framework for action and support. It commits all Parties to develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of the Parties their national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources, and removals by sinks, of seven GHGs.

Canada’s official GHG inventory is prepared and submitted annually to the UNFCCC in accordance with the modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) for the transparency framework for action and support referred to in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 18/CMA.1 in 2018.^{Footnote 2} The annual inventory submission under the UNFCCC consists of the NIR and Common Reporting Tables (CRTs), submitted by April 15 of each year.

The GHG inventory includes emissions and removals of carbon dioxide (CO₂), and emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) in five sectors (Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use [IPPU], Agriculture, Waste, and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry [LULUCF]). The GHG emission and removal estimates contained in Canada’s GHG inventory are developed using methodologies consistent with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. In line with the principle of continuous improvement, the underlying data and methodology for estimating emissions are revised over time; hence, total emissions in all years are subject to change as both data and methods are improved (see section ES.8).

In 2021, Canada formally submitted its enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC, committing to cut its GHG emissions by 40%–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 (see The NIR: Scientific Evidence for Decision Makers box that follows). Canada submitted its NDC for 2035 to the UNFCCC in February 2025. With this new NDC, Canada commits to reducing GHG emissions by 45%-50% below 2005 levels by 2035. Since 2005 was adopted as a base year for Canada’s targets, many of the metrics in this report are presented in that context, in addition to the 1990 base year as required by the MPGs. In keeping with the reporting requirements, the GHG inventory reports annual emissions from 1990 up to and including the year ending 15 ½ months prior to its submission to the UNFCCC in April (e.g., 2023 for the 2025 edition of the inventory). For the first time, in December 2024, Canada’s Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Emissions were published ahead of the final NIR, representing a publication date of less than 12 months following the latest reported year.

Consistent with Canada's Nationally Determined Contribution, progress towards Canada’s targets is measured by combining information from Canada’s NIR to its LULUCF contribution in accordance with Canada’s approach to LULUCF accounting, which is reported separately in Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report submitted to the UNFCCC and Canada’s GHG and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections Reports.

Section ES.3 of this Executive Summary provides an overview of the latest information on Canada’s net anthropogenic GHG emissions and links this information to relevant indicators of the Canadian economy. Section ES.4 outlines the major trends in emissions by IPCC sectors over the 2005–2023 period.

For the purposes of analyzing economic trends and policies, emissions have been allocated to the economic sector from which they originate. Section ES.5 presents Canada’s emissions broken down by the following economic sectors: Oil and Gas, Electricity, Transport, Heavy Industry, Buildings, Agriculture, and Waste and others.^{Footnote 3} Throughout this report, the word “sector” generally refers to activity sectors as defined by the IPCC for national GHG inventories, except when the expression “economic sectors” is used in reference to the Canadian context.

Section ES.6 summarizes GHG emissions for Canada’s 13 sub-national jurisdictions. Section ES.7 gives an overview of the key category analysis and results. Section ES.8 presents an overview of the improvements incorporated into this inventory, as well as planned improvements for future editions. Finally, section ES.9 provides some detail on the components of this submission and outlines key elements of its preparation.

ES.3 Overview of National GHG Emissions (1990–2023)

Canada accounts for approximately 1.4% of global GHG emissions (Climate Watch, 2025 for the year 2021), making it the 12th largest emitter. While Canada is one of the highest per capita emitters, per capita emissions have declined since 2005 from 24 t CO₂ eq/capita to 17 t CO₂ eq/capita in 2023 (StatCan, n.d.[a]).^{Footnote 4}

Emission Breakdown by Sector (2023)

In 2023, Canada’s GHG emissions were 694 Mt CO₂ eq, excluding the LULUCF sector.^{Footnote 5} The Energy sector (consisting of Stationary Combustion Sources, Transport and Fugitive Sources) emitted the largest share (81%) of Canada’s total GHG emissions (Figure ES–1). The remaining emissions were generated by the Agriculture and IPPU sectors, with contributions from the Waste sector. When included with emissions from other sectors, LULUCF sector emissions corresponded to 0.6% of the national total in 2023.

Figure ES–1: Breakdown of Canada’s Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sector (2023)

Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Emission Breakdown by GHG (2023)

Canada’s emissions profile is similar to most industrialized countries, in that CO₂ is the largest contributor to total emissions, accounting for 545 Mt or 79% of total emissions in 2023, as shown by the largest part of Figure ES–2. Most CO₂ emissions in Canada result from the combustion of fossil fuels. CH₄ emissions in 2023 amounted to 109 Mt or 16% of Canada’s total and is the second-largest contributor. These emissions consist largely of fugitive^{Footnote 6} emissions oil and natural gas systems (50 Mt), agriculture (31 Mt) and landfills (20 Mt). Emissions of N₂O accounted for 28 Mt or 4.0% of Canada’s emissions in 2023, which mostly arise from agricultural soil management (18 Mt). Emissions of synthetic gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF₆ and NF₃) accounted for less than 2% of national emissions.

Figure ES–2: Breakdown of Canada’s Emissions by GHG (2023)

Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Changes in Total Emissions (1990–2023)

After fluctuations in recent years, overall, Canada’s GHG emissions in 2023 have decreased by 65 Mt or 8.5% since 2005. In general, year-to-year fluctuations are superimposed over trends observed over a longer period. During the period covered in this report, Canada’s economy grew more rapidly than its GHG emissions. As a result, the emissions intensity for the entire economy (GHG per GDP) has continued to decline; in 2023 it had declined by 45% since 1990 and by 34% since 2005 (Figure ES–3). The decline in emissions intensity can be attributed to factors such as fuel switching, increases in efficiency, the modernization of industrial processes and structural changes in the economy.

Figure ES–3: Canadian GHG Emissions and Indexed Trend Emissions Intensity (excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry)

Notes: NA = Not applicable
GDP data source = StatCan (n.d.[b])

Over the 2013–2023 period, total emissions decreased by 56 Mt or 7.5%. Since 2013, significant decreases occurred from Oil and Natural Gas Fugitive Sources (-33 Mt or -33%) as well as Public Electricity and Heat Production (-29 Mt or -34%). These decreases can be explained mostly by methane emission reductions from conventional oil and gas activities (more specifically from decreased venting) as well as the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation and increased electricity generation from renewable sources. In contrast, from 2013 to 2023, Oil and Gas Extraction combustion emissions increased by 16 Mt (18%). Emissions from some transport sources increased as well, notably Other Transportation^{Footnote 7} by 8.4 Mt (18%) and Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks by 7.9 Mt (17%). These increases can be attributed mainly to continued production growth in Canada’s oil sands operations and an increase in the off- and on-road vehicle fleet, leading to more kilometres driven overall.

When observing long-term emission trends, large-scale events can have a significant impact on a portion of the time-series analyzed and should be considered. The years 2020 and 2021 were marked by the COVID-19 pandemic. This coincides with an abrupt decrease of 65 Mt (8.7%) in total GHG emissions between 2019 and 2020, with almost half from Transport (-31 Mt or -15%). The year after, between 2020 and 2021, emissions increased slightly by 11 Mt (1.7%) and between 2021 and 2022 they continued to increase by 6.3 Mt (0.9%), while remaining below their 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Finally, in the latest year, between 2022 and 2023, emissions decreased by 6.0 Mt (0.9%). Impacts of the pandemic, more pronounced in 2020, are now harder to distinguish in the latest years. Notwithstanding the abrupt decrease between 2019 and 2020, and recent year changes, the general breakdown of emissions by IPCC sector has not substantially changed over time (Figure ES–4).

Figure ES–4: Trends in Canadian GHG Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sector (2005–2023)

ES.4 GHG Emissions and Trends by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sector

Trends in Emissions (2005–2023)

Over the 2005–2023 period, total emissions are down by 65 Mt or 8.5%. The Energy sector dominated, with emission decreases of 37 Mt (11%) from Stationary Combustion Sources and 29 Mt (30%) from Fugitive Sources (Table ES–1). Transport associated fuel combustion emissions increased by 5.1 Mt (2.7%). Over the same period, emissions are down by 2.5 Mt (4.5%) in the IPPU sector and 1.1 Mt or 2.0% in the Agriculture sector. The Waste sector emissions have remained relatively stable with a decrease of 0.58 Mt (2.5%) (Figure ES–5).

Chapter 2 provides more information on GHG emissions trends since 1990 and 2005 and their drivers.^{Footnote 8}
Further breakdowns of emissions and a complete time series are available on the  Government of Canada’s Open Data website.

Figure ES–5: Changes in Emissions by IPCC Sector (2005–2023)

Energy – 2023 GHG Emissions (562 Mt)

In 2023, GHG emissions from the IPCC Energy sector (562 Mt) were 9.7% lower than in 2005 (623 Mt). Within the Energy sector, emissions increased by 44 Mt (70%) from Oil and Gas Extraction, 6.0 Mt (12%) from Other Transportation, 1.1 Mt (49%) from Agriculture and Forestry, and 1.1 Mt (26%) from Mining. These emissions were offset by decreases of 65 Mt (53%) from Public Electricity and Heat Production, 29 Mt (30%) from Fugitive Sources, 8.1 Mt (19%) from the Residential sector, 6.4 Mt (14%) from Manufacturing Industries, and 4.4 Mt (24%) from Petroleum Refining.

Stationary Combustion Sources (298 Mt)

From 2005 to 2023, stationary combustion emissions from Oil and Gas Extraction increased 44 Mt (70%), consistent with a 242% rise in crude bitumen and synthetic crude oil production from Canada’s oil sands operations.

Decreasing electricity generation from coal and refined petroleum product (RPP) usage (by 77% and 79%, respectively) and an increase in the amount of low-emitting generation in the mix^{Footnote 9} were the largest drivers of the 65 Mt (53%) decrease in emissions associated with Public Electricity and Heat Production between 2005 and 2023. Since 2005, reduced consumption of more GHG-intensive fossil fuels (coal and RPPs), accounted for 41% of the decrease in emissions from Public Electricity and Heat Production. Significant emission reductions in GHG-intensive fossil fuels occurred in Ontario (99%), Manitoba (91%), Alberta (83%), New Brunswick (71%), Nova Scotia (62%), and Saskatchewan (27%). Emission fluctuations over the period reflect variations in the mix of electricity generation sources. Since 2005, the increase in electricity generated from low-emitting sources accounted for 44% of the decrease in emissions.

The 8.1 Mt (19%) decrease in emissions in the Residential category between 2005 and 2023 is largely driven by energy efficiency improvements, with smaller decreases due to warmer weather and reduced consumption of light fuel oil offset by an increase in population and floor space.

GHG emissions from fuel consumption in Manufacturing Industries decreased by 6.4 Mt (14%) between 2005 and 2023, consistent with a 14% decrease in energy use (StatCan, n.d.[c]). The decrease occurred in Other Manufacturing (-3.2 Mt or -20%), Pulp and Paper (-1.6 Mt or -19%), Cement (-1.5 Mt or -30%), Non-Ferrous Metals (-0.73 Mt or -19%), and Iron and Steel (-0.45 Mt or -9.0%), in contrast with an increase in Chemicals (1.1 Mt or 13%).

Since 2005, one petroleum refinery in Alberta has permanently closed (2012), while four have converted to terminal and renewable energy production facilities including one in Ontario (2005), Quebec (2010), Nova Scotia (2013), and Newfoundland and Labrador (2020) contributing to the decrease of 4.4 Mt (24%) in Petroleum Refining Industries emissions.

Transport (195 Mt)

Most transport emissions in Canada are related to Road Transportation, which includes personal transportation (light-duty vehicles and trucks) and heavy-duty vehicles. The general growth trend in road transportation emissions through the time-series is largely due to an increase in driving: more cars and trucks on the road using more fuel and therefore generating greater emissions, despite continued reductions in the emissions produced by each individual vehicle. Further, despite a reduction in kilometres driven per vehicle, the total population of the vehicle fleet in 2023 had increased by 32% since 2005 leading to more kilometres driven overall. Also contributing to more vehicle kilometers driven over this time period, within the total vehicle population, there was a decrease in the number of cars; and an increase in the number of heavy-duty vehicles that typically contribute more vehicle kilometers travelled per vehicle.

From 2005 to 2019, emissions from Transport have generally increased. From 2019 to 2020, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Transport emissions decreased below 2005 levels as travel from aircraft and light-duty on-road vehicles decreased. From 2021 to 2023, as travel demand began to return to pre-pandemic levels, Transport emissions increased by 8.6 Mt, bringing them 5.1 Mt above 2005 levels but still below pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Fugitive Sources (68 Mt)

Fugitive Sources are comprised of flaring, venting and unintentional emissions from fossil fuel production (coal, oil and natural gas) with emissions from the oil and gas industry generally accounting for approximately 98% of total fugitive emissions in Canada. Since 2005, almost 220 000 productive oil and gas wells have been drilled and the annual number of producing wells has increased by 4%. Crude oil and natural gas production has also increased by 47%, mostly due to Canada’s Oil Sands. Even with the increased output and activity, Fugitive Sources emissions have decreased by 29 Mt (30%). This includes a 5.6% increase from 98 Mt in 2005 to a peak in 2014 of 103 Mt. Since 2014, emissions have decreased by 35 Mt (34%) as a result of measures to increase the conservation of natural gas (comprised mainly of CH₄) and federal and provincial measures to reduce methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry. The reduction of emissions coinciding with increased production highlights the reduction in emission intensities that have been achieved (see Chapter 2 for more details).

Carbon Capture and Storage (37 kt)

Carbon capture involves the capture of anthropogenic CO₂ from industrial processes or fuel combustion sources. The captured CO₂ is transported to, and injected at, long-term storage (LTS) facilities or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Injection into LTS began in 2016, and in 2023 approximately 1.1 Mt of captured CO₂ was placed in geological formations for LTS. EOR use of industrial captured CO₂ began in 2000, and in 2023 about 3.2 Mt of captured CO₂ was injected to support EOR operations, of which approximately 1.1 Mt was imported from the United States. At 2023 year-end, a cumulative total of 8.3 Mt of captured CO₂ was placed in LTS and 51.13 Mt was injected for EOR.

Due to the increase in activity associated with this category, fugitive emissions from CO₂ capture, transport, use and storage increased from 0.09 kt in 2005 to 37 kt in 2023. See Chapter 3, section 3.4, for more details on carbon capture and storage volumes and associated emissions.

Industrial Processes and Product Use – 2023 GHG Emissions (54 Mt)

The IPPU sector covers non-energy GHG emissions that result from manufacturing processes and use of products, such as limestone calcination in cement production and the use of HFCs and PFCs as replacement refrigerants for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Emissions from the IPPU sector contributed 54 Mt (7.7%) to Canada’s 2023 emissions.

Between 2005 and 2023, process emissions from most IPPU categories decreased. Lower cement and lime production, and closures or indefinite idling of multiple facilities contributed to an emission decrease of 0.9 Mt (10%). Emissions from the Iron and Steel Industry decreased by 1.3 Mt (12%) during the period because of the closure of a facility in 2013. The Aluminium Industry also saw a decline in its process emissions of 2.2 Mt (27%), largely due to the implementation of technological improvements and the shutdown of older smelters using Søderberg technology. The closure of primary magnesium plants in 2007 and 2008 as well accounted for 1.2 Mt (83%) of the overall decrease. Another emission decrease of 2.3 Mt (100%) came from the 2009 closure of the sole Canadian adipic acid plant located in Ontario.

A notable exception to the overall decrease in IPPU emissions was the 5.4 Mt (113%) increase in emissions from the use of HFCs to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) since 2005. However, since 2018, HFC emissions have been decreasing, primarily due to a reduction in HFC imports, coinciding with the implementation of federal regulations gradually phasing down HFCs.^{Footnote 10}

Agriculture – 2023 GHG Emissions (55 Mt)

The Agriculture sector covers non-energy GHG emissions related to the production of crops and livestock. In 2023, emissions from Agriculture accounted for 55 Mt, or 7.9% of total GHG emissions for Canada, including 28% and 76% of national CH₄ and N₂O emissions, respectively.

The main drivers of the emission trend in the Agriculture sector are the fluctuations in livestock populations and the application of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers to agricultural soils mainly in the Prairie provinces. Since 2005, fertilizer use has increased by 92%, while major livestock populations peaked in 2005, then decreased sharply until 2011. As a result, emissions in 2023 are roughly equivalent to 2005, though the contribution of emissions from crop production has increased relative to the livestock sector. In 2023, emissions from livestock feed consumption and digestion (enteric fermentation) accounted for 48% of total agricultural emissions, and the application of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers accounted for 19% of total agricultural emissions.

Waste – 2023 GHG Emissions (23 Mt)

The Waste sector includes GHG emissions from the treatment and disposal of liquid and solid wastes. Emissions from Waste contributed 23 Mt (3.3%) to Canada’s total emissions in 2023.

The primary sources of emissions in 2023 for the Waste sector are Landfills (20 Mt or 86% of total emissions from this sector), including municipal solid waste (MSW) and industrial wood waste disposal. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge accounted for 2.6 Mt (11%) of the Waste sector emissions. Other sources include Biological Treatment of Solid Waste (composting) (2.2%), and Incineration and Open Burning of Waste (0.7%).

Between 2005 and 2023, emissions from MSW landfills decreased by 3.6%. Of the 33 Mt CO₂ eq of CH₄ generated by MSW landfills in 2023, 19 Mt CO₂ eq (57%) were emitted to the atmosphere, while 12 Mt CO₂ eq (37%) were captured by landfill gas collection facilities and flared or used for energy (compared to 29% in 2005). The remaining 2.1 Mt (6.3%) is assumed to be oxidized through landfill cover materials.

Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry – 2023 (Net GHG Source of 4.2 Mt)

The LULUCF sector reports anthropogenic GHG fluxes between the atmosphere and Canada’s managed lands, including those associated with land-use change and fluxes of carbon from Harvested Wood Products (HWP) production and use, which are closely linked to Forest Land.

In this sector, the net flux is calculated as the sum of CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere and CO₂ removals from the atmosphere. In 2023, this net flux amounted to a net source of 4.2 Mt.

Net fluxes from the LULUCF sector over recent years have fluctuated between net emissions of 4.2 Mt and 68 Mt. Fluctuations are driven by the variability in crop yields and by variations in emissions from HWP and removals from Forest Land, which are closely tied to forest harvest rates.

Estimates from the forest sector are split between anthropogenic emissions and removals associated with forest management and HWP, and emissions and removals resulting from the natural cycles of disturbances in managed forests (wildfires and insects). The combined net flux from Forest Land and HWP—from forest harvest—fluctuated from a net source of 80 Mt in 2005 to a net source of 19 Mt in 2023. This was a result of decreases in harvest rates and longer-term effects of disturbance history – natural and anthropogenic – on the overall age structure of the Canadian managed forest. In 2023, an additional 5 Mt CO₂ eq of carbon was sequestered to the global pool of HWP coming from Canadian Forests; however 67% of carbon in the HWP pool, that was disposed of or consumed as bioenergy, was associated with short-lived products and bioenergy production.

In most years, cropland contributed to net removals ranging from 1.6 Mt (1991) to 42 Mt (2014). Net emissions occurred due to drought in recent years - specifically 2002, 2003 and 2022 - that resulted in low yields and consequently carbon loss from soils as in these years, decomposition rates were higher than carbon input rates to soils. Net removals have increased, on average, as a result of improved soil management practices including conservation tillage and an overall gradual increase in crop productivity resulting from improved and more intensive practices such as the reduced use of summer fallow. Interannual variability occurs throughout the time series, reflecting weather-related impacts to crop production. Since 2005, a decline in net removals from a decrease in perennial land cover has largely offset removals resulting from increasing yields and there is, subsequently, no clear trend.

The conversion of forests to other land uses is a prevalent practice in Canada and is mainly due to resource extraction and cropland expansion. Emissions resulting from forest conversion in the years 2005 to 2023 have fluctuated around 17 Mt.

Table ES–1: Canada’s GHG Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sector, Selected Years

Notes:

Totals may not add up due to rounding.

0.00 Indicates emissions were truncated due to rounding.

1. National totals calculated in this table do not include emissions and removals reported in LULUCF.
2. This summary data is presented in more detail on the Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory - Open Government Portal.

ES.5 Canadian Economic Sectors

For the purposes of analyzing economic trends and policies, and in addition to what is required by inventory reporting requirements, emissions have been allocated to the economic sector from which they originate. In general, a comprehensive emission profile for a specific economic sector has been developed by reallocating the relevant portion of emissions from various IPCC subcategories. For example, emissions associated with the oil and gas industry are present in the Stationary Combustion Sources, Transport, Fugitive Sources, and Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use IPCC subsectors and are combined into the Oil and Gas economic sector. This reallocation simply recategorizes emissions under different headings and does not change the overall magnitude of Canadian emissions estimates.

Overall, GHG emissions trends in Canada’s economic sectors are consistent with those described for similar IPCC sectors (Figure ES–6). The most notable trends in Canada’s emission profile between 2005 and 2023 were from Electricity as well as Oil and Gas sources, Electricity decreasing by 67 Mt and Oil and Gas, increasing by 13 Mt. Over the same period, in addition to Oil and Gas sources, Agriculture is the only other sector that showed emission increases (Table ES–2). The emission trends in Oil and Gas are mainly due to the production growth in Canada’s oil sands operations (52 Mt) offset by methane emission reductions from conventional oil and gas activities (-33 Mt). Emissions from Electricity decreased, driven by the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation. Emissions from Heavy Industry, Waste and others and Buildings also decreased over this period. Since 2005, Transport emissions have generally increased, with a notable decrease in 2020. Emissions in 2023 from the Transport economic sector are similar to 2005 levels.

Further information on economic sector trends can be found in Chapter 2.4. Additional information on the IPCC and economic sector definitions, as well as a detailed crosswalk table between both, can be found in Part 3 of this report as well as in the GHG data files on the Government of Canada's Open Data website.

Figure ES–6: Breakdown of Canada’s GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (2023)

Table ES–2: Canada’s GHG Emissions by Economic Sector, Selected Years

Notes:
Totals may not add up due to rounding.
Additional detail in section 2.4 of Chapter 2.

ES.6 Provincial and Territorial GHG Emissions

Emissions vary significantly by province and territory because of factors such as population, energy sources and economic structure. All else being equal, economies based on resource extraction will tend to have higher emission levels than service-based economies. Likewise, provinces that rely on fossil fuels for electricity generation emit relatively higher amounts of GHGs than those using hydroelectricity.

Historically, Alberta and Ontario have been the highest-emitting provinces, representing 38% and 23% of the national total in 2023, respectively. Since 2005, emission patterns in these two provinces have diverged. Those in Alberta have increased by 13 Mt (5.1%) since 2005, primarily because of the expansion of oil and gas operations (Figure ES–7). In contrast, Ontario’s emissions have decreased by 44 Mt (22%) since 2005, owing primarily to the closure of coal-fired electricity generation plants. Overall, emissions have decreased in eight provinces and one territory between 2005 and 2023, while emissions of two provinces and two territories have increased (Table ES–3).

Figure ES–7: GHG Emissions by Province and Territory in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2023

Table ES–3: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Province and Territory, Selected Years

Note:
Totals may not add up due to rounding.

ES.7 Key Category Analysis

The 2006 IPCC Guidelines (IPCC, 2006) define procedures for selecting estimation methods and defining which are most suited to national circumstances, considering the available knowledge and resources. Identifying and prioritizing methodology improvements is a good practice that can be facilitated by the identification of key categories, ensuring the most efficient use of available resources. This annual analysis is required by the MPGs. Key categories are prioritized because their estimates have a significant influence on the national total, in terms of the absolute level of emissions, the trend assessment, or both. For the 1990–2023 GHG inventory, level and trend key category assessments were performed according to the Tier 1 approach (IPCC, 2006).

The categories that have the strongest influence on the national trend (excluding LULUCF) are:

1. Stationary Fuel Combustion – Manufacturing Industries and Construction, CO₂
2. Fuel Combustion – Road Transportation, CO₂
3. Stationary Fuel Combustion – Energy Industries, CO₂

The categories that have the strongest influence on the national trend (including LULUCF) are:

1. LULUCF – Forest Land Remaining Forest Land, CO₂
2. LULUCF – Harvested Wood Products, CO₂
3. Stationary Fuel Combustion – Energy Industries, CO₂

Details and results of the key category level and trend assessments are presented in Annex 1 of this report.

ES.8 Inventory Improvements

Continuous improvement is good inventory preparation practice (IPCC, 2006) and essential to ensure Canada’s inventory estimates are based on the best available science and data. Recalculations of inventory estimates often result as part of continuous inventory improvement activities, including refinements of methods, updates to activity data, inclusion of categories previously not estimated, correction of errors, or compliance with recommendations arising from reviews conducted under the UNFCCC. ECCC continuously consults and works with experts in federal, provincial and territorial agencies; industry; academia; research institutions; and consultants to improve inventory quality. Improved understanding and refined or more comprehensive data are used to develop and integrate more accurate methods. The implementation of methodological improvements leads to the recalculation of previous estimates to maintain a consistent trend in emissions and removals.

The 2025 edition of the GHG inventory incorporates methodological improvements in the estimation of multiple emission sources. Notably and among others, fugitive emission estimates from activities in the natural gas transmission, storage and distribution industries were revised. Furthermore, updated activity data and emission factors for drained organic soils were integrated into the Agriculture and LULUCF Cropland estimates. Additionally refinements occurred in the LULUCF sector, with revisions to biomass C change associated with land use change events as well as the integration of improved emission and removal factors for peat extraction under the Wetlands land use category, and revisions to harvest rates affecting Forest Land and HWP. Finally, a change in the allocation of emissions and removals between the categories Forest Land and HWP improves the comparability of Canada’s reporting of the Forest Sector internationally. Overall, without the LULUCF sector, the recalculations resulted in -2.8 Mt in 2005 and -7.9 Mt in 2022. The improved methods use Canadian-specific studies and knowledge, adopt the most up-to-date activity data and better reflect evolving technologies and industry practices. Chapter 8 of the present report provides greater detail on the impacts of current inventory improvements on the overall emission trends.

Improvements to inventory estimates are anticipated in future editions of this report. For example, and amongst several planned improvements, in the Energy sector for Transport, the migration to the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator 5 (MOVES5) model is planned. Improvements expected in the LULUCF sector include tracking of emissions and removals resulting from land use change from oil and gas development, the growth of urban trees and the inclusion of methane emissions from the creation of reservoirs. Refer to Chapter 8 for details on the planned improvements and for a complete list covering all sectors. For additional detail on LULUCF planned improvements of methods related to Forests, refer to the Improvement Plan for Forest and Harvested Wood Products Greenhouse Gas Estimates.

ES.9 National Inventory Arrangements

Environment and Climate Change Canada is the single national entity with responsibility for preparing and submitting the national GHG inventory to the UNFCCC and for managing the supporting processes and procedures. The inventory arrangements for the preparation of the inventory include, amongst others: formal institutional arrangements on data collection and estimate development; a quality management system, including a method change process to peer-review and approve planned improvements; the identification of key categories and generation of quantitative uncertainty analysis; a process for performing and tracking recalculations following improvements and activity data updates; procedures for third-party reviews and official approval; and a working archive system. In line with the requirements under the MPGs, information regarding the national inventory arrangements, including details on institutional arrangements and cross-cutting information for inventory development and preparation are presented in Chapter 1.

Structure of Submission

As per the MPGs, the annual submission of Canada’s official GHG inventory comprises the NIR and CRTs. The CRTs are a series of standardized data tables containing mainly numerical information. The NIR contains the information to support the CRTs, including a comprehensive description of the methodologies used in compiling the inventory, data sources, institutional arrangements, and quality assurance and quality control procedures.

Part 1 of the NIR, in accordance with MPG requirements, includes chapters 1 to 8:

• Chapter 1 provides an overview of Canada’s legal, institutional and procedural arrangements, along with cross-cutting information, for producing the inventory, and a description of Canada’s GHGRP and how the facility-reported data are integrated in the inventory
• Chapter 2 provides an analysis of Canada’s GHG emission trends and a breakdown of emission trends by Canadian economic sectors
• Chapters 3 to 7 provide descriptions and additional analysis for each sector
• Chapter 8 presents a summary of the recalculations and, implemented and planned improvements

Part 2 consists of annexes 1 to 7, which provide a key category analysis, inventory uncertainty assessment, detailed estimation methodologies, Canada’s energy balance, completeness assessments, emission factors and information on ozone and aerosol precursors. This material is available on the Government of Canada’s Open Data website in various formats.

Part 3 comprises annexes 8 to 13, which present rounding procedures, summary tables of GHG emissions at the national level and for each provincial and territorial jurisdiction, sector and gas, as well as additional details on the GHG intensity of electricity generation. Detailed GHG data are also available on the Government of Canada's Open Data website.

The complete NIR, in PDF format, can be accessed on the Government of Canada’s publications website. ECCC is streamlining NIR content, including a transition away from heavy amounts of data in the PDF format of the report to greater data availability in various formats on Government of Canada's Open Data website. If you have any questions or would like to share views on this, please contact us at ges-ghg@ec.gc.ca.

Executive Summary References

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Climate Watch. 2025. Climate Watch historical GHG emissions. Washington (DC): World Resources Institute.

Conrad BM, Tyner DR, Li HZ, Xie D, Johnson MR. 2023a. A measurement-based upstream oil and gas methane inventory for Alberta, Canada reveals higher emissions and different sources than official estimates. Commun. Earth Environ. 4, 416.

Conrad BM, Tyner DR, Johnson MR. 2023b. The futility of relative methane reduction targets in the absence of measurement-based inventories. Environ. Sci. Technol.

Government of Canada. 2020. Ozone-depleting Substances and Halocarbon Alternatives Regulations, SOR/2016-137.

[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2006. Publications - IPCC-TFI. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K, Ngara T, Tanabe K (eds). Hayama (Japan): Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2019. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Calvo Buendia E, Tanabe K, Kranjc A, Baasansuren J, Fukuda M, Ngarize S, Osako A, Pyrozhenko Y, Shermanau P and Federici S (eds). Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Johnson MR, Conrad BM, Tyner DR. 2023. Creating measurement-based oil and gas sector methane inventories using source-resolved aerial surveys. Commun. Earth Environ 4, 139.

MacKay K, Lavoie M, Bourlon E, Atherton E, O’Connell E, Baillie J, Fougère C, Risk D. 2021. Methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production in Canada are underestimated. Sci. Rep.,11: 8041.

MacKay K, Seymour SP, Li HZ, Zavala-Araiza D, Xie D. 2024. A Comprehensive Integration and Synthesis of Methane Emissions from Canada’s Oil and Gas Value Chain. Environ. Sci. Technol. 58(32), 14203-14213. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c03651.

[StatCan] Statistics Canada. No date (a). Table 17-10-0005-01: Population estimates on July 1st, by age and sex. [last updated 2024 Sept 25; accessed 2024 Dec 18].

[StatCan] Statistics Canada. No date (b). Table 36-10-0369-01: Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, at 2017 constant prices, annual (x 1,000,000). [last updated 2024 Nov 29; accessed 2024 Dec 06].

[StatCan] Statistics Canada. No date (c). Table 25-10-0025-01: Manufacturing industries, total annual energy fuel consumption in gigajoules, 31-33. [accessed 2024 Dec 16].