Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes updated GHG emissions projection scenarios annually, reflecting the latest historical data and updated future economic and energy market assumptions. As such, projections fluctuate over time.

The latest GHG emissions projection report included 2 scenarios developed using a bottom-up approach:

• the "With measures" scenario which includes all policies and measures funded, legislated, and implemented by federal, provincial, and territorial governments up to August 2024 and contributions from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector
• the "With additional measures" scenario which adds in policies and measures that are under development but have not yet been fully implemented, including contributions from nature-based-climate solutions (NBCS), agriculture measures and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)^{Footnote 1}

Detailed results are available in Annex 4 of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement (PDF; 11.8 MB).

Key results

• 2026 emissions are projected to be 652 Mt CO₂ eq (14% below 2005 levels^{Footnote 2}) under the "With measures" scenario and 628 Mt CO₂ eq (18% below 2005 levels) under the "With additional measures (without NBCS and agricultural measures)" scenario^{Footnote 3} 
• 2030 emissions are projected to be 597 Mt CO₂ eq^{Footnote 4}  (22% below 2005 levels) under the "With measures" scenario and 502 Mt CO₂ eq (34% below 2005 levels) under the "With additional measures" scenario
• 2035 emissions are projected to reach 577 Mt CO₂ eq^{Footnote 5}  (24% below 2005 levels) under the "With measures" scenario and 458 Mt CO₂ eq (40% below 2005 levels) under the "With additional measures" scenario
• 2040 emissions are projected to decline further, reaching 559 Mt CO₂ eq^{Footnote 6}  (27% below 2005 levels) under the "With measures" scenario and 431 Mt CO₂ eq (43% below 2005 levels) under the "With additional measures" scenario

Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections, Canada, 2005 to 2040

How this indicator was calculated

Note: n/a = not applicable. NBCS = nature-based climate solutions. Historical emissions data from 2005 to 2022 correspond to the emissions presented in the National Inventory Report 1990‑2022: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada (excluding net GHG flux from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry [LULUCF]) to which were added the accounting contribution from the LULUCF. The GHG impact of NBCS and agriculture measures was estimated for the year 2030 only. Since the reductions from NBCS and agriculture measures are considered permanent, it is assumed that the 2030 estimate (a reduction of 11 to 13 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, with a central estimate of 12) is constant out to 2040. For more information on the projection scenarios, refer to the Data sources and methods.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) National Inventory Report 1990-2022: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.

One way to address the uncertainty inherent in projections is via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in: future economic growth, population projections, and oil and natural gas production and prices. The sensitivity analyses generated through these alternate cases are used to identify a range of possible emissions projections. Through the sensitivity analysis of the "With measures" scenario, GHG emissions in 2030 are projected to range between 601 and 650 Mt CO₂ eq, excluding LULUCF. The LULUCF accounting contribution is projected to reduce Canada’s emissions by 28 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030. In 2035, the same range is expected to be between 552 and 654 Mt CO₂ eq, and between 515 and 647 Mt CO₂ eq in 2040, still when excluding LULUCF.

What the indicator measures

The indicator provides an overview of Canada's projected GHG emissions. These modelled projections are based on:

• historical data from Canada's National Inventory Report
• expectations about future energy markets, population and economic growth from authoritative sources including the Canada Energy Regulator, Statistics Canada, and Finance Canada
• policies and measures that were in place as of August 2024
• policies and measures that were announced but not yet fully implemented, as of August 2024
• the impact of the purchase of credits under the Western Climate Initiative, nature-based climate solutions, and agriculture measures

Why this indicator is important

GHG emissions and climate change have important human health, environmental and economic impacts. The indicator allows the public and policymakers to see Canada's modelled GHG emissions projections relative to upcoming targets and beyond.

In 2015, Canada and 194 other countries reached the Paris Agreement. This agreement aims to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this long-term goal, the Paris Agreement requires countries to increase their ambition every 5 years. In July 2021, Canada committed to a GHG emissions reduction target of 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In March 2022, Canada announced an interim objective to reduce GHG emissions to 20% below 2005 levels by 2026. In December 2024, Canada presented a 2035 GHG emission reduction target of 45% to 50% below 2005 levels.

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act enshrines in legislation Canada's commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Act establishes a legally-binding process to set 5-year national emissions-reduction targets and develop emissions reduction plans to achieve each target. In March 2022, the Government of Canada introduced the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the first plan issued under the Act. The plan provides a roadmap for the Canadian economy to achieve its 2030 emissions reduction target. Additional targets will be developed in 5-year intervals for 2040 through to 2045, as well as associated plans through to 2050.

The 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan builds upon the actions outlined in Canada's previous climate plans. Canada’s first-ever national climate plan was released in 2016 – the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change – jointly developed by the federal, provincial and territorial governments and in consultation with Indigenous Peoples. In 2020, the Government of Canada announced its strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy.

Related initiatives

This indicator supports the measurement of progress towards the following 2022 to 2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy Goal 13: Take action on climate change and its impacts.

In addition, the indicator contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. They are linked to Goal 13, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts and Target 13.2, "Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning."

Related indicators

The Greenhouse gas emissions indicators report trends in total anthropogenic (human-made) GHG emissions at the national level, per person and per unit gross domestic product, by province and territory and by economic sector.

The Greenhouse gas emissions from large facilities indicator reports GHG emissions from the largest GHG emitters in Canada (industrial and other types of facilities).

The Global greenhouse gas emissions indicator provides a global perspective on Canada's share of global GHG emissions.

The Greenhouse gas concentrations indicators present atmospheric concentrations as measured from sites in Canada and at a global scale for 2 greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide and methane.

The Greenhouse gas emissions from a consumption perspective indicator shows the impact of Canada's consumption of goods and services, regardless of where they are produced, on the levels of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

The Land-based greenhouse gas emissions and removals indicator tracks exchanges of greenhouse gas emissions and removals between the atmosphere and Canada's managed lands.

Data sources and methods

Data sources

The data for this indicator come from Environment and Climate Change Canada's GHG emissions projections as reported in Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement. The indicator reflects the latest GHG emissions projections modelling published by the department at the time of production.

The latest projections (December 2024) use historical GHG emissions data from the 2024 National Inventory Report for the years 2005 to 2022 to which were added the accounting contribution from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector. The projections cover the period from 2023 to 2040.

Methods

No changes or additional calculations are performed on the data.

Recent changes

The calculation of this indicator reflects methodological revisions that were applied to the 2024 National Inventory Report, as well as revisions to the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada. Recalculations have resulted in upward revisions to emissions for all years. This upward revision is mainly driven by the use of updated global warming potentials as published in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report and methodological improvements implemented in the upstream oil and gas sector. For a list of the modelling and methodological changes, refer to Annex 4 of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement (PDF; 11.8 MB).

Caveats and limitations

Emissions projections are subject to uncertainty and are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Many of the events that shape emissions and energy markets cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty.

Resources

References

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. Retrieved on November 25, 2024.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2020) A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy. Retrieved on November 25, 2024.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada's Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy. Retrieved on November 25, 2024.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report. Retrieved on November 25, 2024.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement (PDF; 11.8 MB). Retrieved on January 2, 2025.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement (2024) – Executive summary. Retrieved on January 2, 2025.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) Canada’s next net-zero milestone: the 2035 emissions reduction target. Retrieved on December 12, 2024.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024) National Inventory Report 1990-2022: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada. Retrieved on November 25, 2024.

Related information

Canada's climate plan

Greenhouse gas emissions projections