Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Projections in Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes updated projections annually. In December 2022, the projections were updated and published as part of Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While in previous Biennial Reports, projections were presented out to 2030, the Fifth Biennial Report includes projections out to 2035. For the December 2022 projections update, 2 scenarios were developed:

• the "with measures" scenario includes all policies and measures funded, legislated and implemented by federal, provincial and territorial governments up to November 2022 and contributions from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector
• the "with additional measures" scenario adds in policies and measures that are under development but have not yet been fully implemented, including contributions from nature-based-climate solutions (NBCS) and agriculture measures and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)^{Footnote 1}

These scenarios do not include modelling of further measures which could contribute to progress toward the 2030 target but have not yet been sufficiently developed, such as the cap on oil and gas emissions and elements of the Green Buildings Strategy.

Key results

• Under the "with measures" scenario, emissions in Canada are projected to be 625 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂ eq) in 2030^{Footnote 2}  (or 16% below 2005 levels^{Footnote 3} )
• Under the "with additional measures" scenario, emissions are projected to decline to 491 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030 (or 34% below 2005 levels)
• 2035 emissions are projected to decline further, reaching 608 Mt CO₂ eq (18% below 2005 levels) under the "with measures" scenario and 443 Mt CO₂ eq (40% below 2005 levels) under the “with additional measures" scenario

Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections, Canada, 2005 to 2035

How this indicator was calculated

Note: NBCS = nature-based climate solutions. The "with additional measures" scenario assumes the 2030 estimate for NBCS & agriculture measures (reduction of 14 to 16 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) is constant out to 2035. Historical emissions data from 2005 to 2020 correspond to the emissions presented in the National Inventory Report 1990‑2020: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada to which were added the accounting contribution from the land use, land use change and forestry sector. For more information on the projection scenarios, refer to the Data sources and methods.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) National Inventory Report 1990-2020: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.

The uncertainty inherent in projections is addressed via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in: future economic growth, population projections and oil and natural gas production and prices. The sensitivity analyses generated through these alternate cases are used to identify a range of possible emissions projections. Through the sensitivity analysis of the “with measures” scenario, GHG emissions in 2030 are projected to range between 612 and 664 Mt CO₂ eq, excluding LULUCF accounting contributions. The LULUCF sector is projected to reduce Canada’s emissions by 12 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030.

When all announced measures are taken into account ("with additional measures" scenario), GHG emissions for 2030 are projected to have decreased by 97 Mt CO₂ eq compared to Canada’s Fourth Biennial Report on Climate Change published in December 2019. This change is primarily driven by new policies and measures that have been put in place or announced in the 2020 strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy and in the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, released in March 2022, as well as updated macroeconomic assumptions such as population growth and oil and gas production forecasts.

The projections in the Fifth Biennial Report reflect the estimated impact of recent global events. These have had significant impacts on the projections, and include:

• Disruptions to global energy markets due to the war in Ukraine, which are leading countries previously relying on natural gas sourced from Russia to find other suppliers
• Global inflation, including in Canada, reaching highs not seen in decades, which has an impact on future prices (such as that for carbon), when those are set in nominal prices
• The COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted economic activity across the globe and shifted consumption patterns

As new measures are announced in more detail and implemented, they will be included in the modelling to assess their impact on future projected emissions levels, including for 2030.

What the indicator measures

The indicator provides an overview of Canada's projected GHG emissions up to 2035. These modelled projections are based on:

• historical data from Canada's National Inventory Report
• expectations about future energy markets, population and economic growth from authoritative sources including the Canada Energy Regulator, Statistics Canada and Finance Canada
• policies and measures that were in place as of November 2022
• policies and measures that are under development but not yet fully implemented, including those from the 2030 Emissions Reductions Plan where there was sufficient information to include them in the sectoral projections

Why this indicator is important

In 2015, Canada and 194 other countries reached the Paris Agreement. This agreement aims to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this long-term goal, the Paris Agreement requires countries to increase their ambition every 5 years. This is why, in July 2021, Canada committed to a GHG emissions reduction target of 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act enshrines in legislation Canada's commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Act establishes a legally-binding process to set 5-year national emissions-reduction targets and develop emissions-reduction plans to achieve each target. In March 2022, the Government of Canada introduced the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the first plan issued under the Act. The plan provides a roadmap for the Canadian economy to achieve its emissions reduction target. The Government of Canada expects that the measures outlined in the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, together with complementary climate actions from the provinces and territories, municipalities, the financial community, Indigenous Peoples, innovators, and businesses – as well as with the acceleration of clean technology innovation and deployment – will lead to further emission reductions by 2030. Updates on progress to implement the measures outlined in the 2030 plan will be presented through progress reports in 2023, 2025 and 2027. Additional targets will be developed in 5-year intervals for 2035 through to 2045, as well as associated plans through to 2050.

The 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan continues to build upon the actions outlined in Canada's previous climate plans. Canada’s first-ever national climate plan was released in 2016 – the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change – jointly developed by the federal, provincial and territorial governments and in consultation with Indigenous Peoples. In 2020, the Government of Canada announced its strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy.

The indicator allows the public and policy-makers to see Canada's modelled GHG emissions projections relative to the 2030 target and introduces for the first time projections up to 2035.

Further, this indicator is important because of the human health, environmental and economic impacts associated with GHG emissions. For more information on these impacts, consult Greenhouse gas emissions: drivers and impacts.

Related initiatives

This indicator supports the measurement of progress towards the following 2022 to 2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy Goal 13: Take action on climate change and its impacts.

In addition, the indicator contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. They are linked to Goal 13, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts and Target 13.2, "Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning."

Related indicators

The Greenhouse gas emissions indicators report trends in total anthropogenic (human-made) GHG emissions at the national level, per person and per unit gross domestic product, by province and territory and by economic sector.

The Greenhouse gas emissions from large facilities indicator reports GHG emissions from the largest GHG emitters in Canada (industrial and other types of facilities).

The Global greenhouse gas emissions indicator provides a global perspective on Canada's share of global GHG emissions.

The Greenhouse gas concentrations indicators present atmospheric concentrations as measured from sites in Canada and at a global scale for 2 greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide and methane.

The Carbon dioxide emissions from a consumption perspective indicator shows the impact of Canada's consumption of goods and services, regardless of where they are produced, on the levels of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

The Land-based greenhouse gas emissions and removals indicator tracks exchanges of greenhouse gas emissions and removals between the atmosphere and Canada's managed lands.

Data sources and methods

Data sources

The data for this indicator come from Environment and Climate Change Canada's GHG emissions projections as reported in Canada's Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report. The indicator reflects the latest GHG emissions projections modelling published by the department at the time of production.

The latest projections (December 2022) use historical GHG emissions data from the 2022 National Inventory Report for the years 2005 to 2020. The projections cover the period from 2021 to 2035.

Methods

No changes or additional calculations are performed on the data.

Recent changes

The calculation of this indicator reflects methodological revisions that were applied to the 2022 National Inventory Report, as well as revisions to the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada. For a list of the modelling and methodological changes, refer to Sections 5.2.2, 5.2.3 and Chapter 5 – Annex 4 of Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report.

Caveats and limitations

Emissions projections are subject to uncertainty, and are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Many of the events that shape emissions and energy markets cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty.

Resources

References

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. Retrieved on December 20, 2022.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2019) Canada’s Fourth Biennial Report on Climate Change. Retrieved on December 20, 2022.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2020) A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy. Retrieved on April 5, 2022.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) National Inventory Report 1990-2020: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada. Retrieved on December 20, 2022.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada's Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy. Retrieved on December 20, 2022.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report. Retrieved on January 3, 2023.

Related information

Canada's climate plan

Greenhouse gas emissions: drivers and impacts

Greenhouse gas emissions projections