Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 2


Emissions projections by sector

This section describes projected emissions by sectors defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by type of greenhouse gas, economic sector and subsector.

Table A1 Detailed Emissions Projections by IPCC Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources 403 371 391 389 392
Transport 195 199 203 201 192
Industrial Processes 58 50 51 59 74
Agriculture 61 57 59 59 60
Waste 31 29 29 23 23
Total 747 706 732 731 742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A2 Detailed Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 579 555 574 577 577
Methane (CH4) 116 104 108 100 103
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 41 38 39 39 40
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) 6 7 9 14 19
Perfluorocarbons (PFC) 4 2 1 1 2
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) 1 0 0 0 0
Total 747 706 732 731 742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A3 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical 2015 Projection 2016 Projection Change
2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources 403 417 450 389 392 -28 -58
Transport 195 204 198 201 192 -3 -6
Industrial Processes 58 66 84 59 74 -7 -10
Agriculture 61 60 61 59 60 -1 -1
Waste 31 21 22 23 23 2 1
Total 747 768 815 731 742 -37 -73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A4 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical 2015 Projection 2016 Projection Change
2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
CO2 579 608 643 577 577 -31 -66
CH4 116 103 104 100 103 -3 -1
N2O 41 40 42 39 40 -1 -2
HFC 6 14 22 14 19 0 -3
PFC 4 2 2 1 2 -1 0
SF6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 747 768 815 731 742 -37 -73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A5 Change in GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (Mt Co 2eq)
Sector 2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Electricity 118 78 64 34 -53 -84
Transportation 171 171 168 157 -3 -14
Oil and Gas 159 192 201 233 42 73
Heavy Industry 88 76 85 97 -4 9
Buildings 85 87 89 94 4 9
Agriculture 70 73 72 74 2 4
Waste & Others 56 54 51 53 -5 -3
Total 747 732 731 742 -16 -6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Detailed Economic Sector Tables

Table A6 Oil and Gas Sector: Emissions by Production Type (Mt Co 2 eq) Footnote 4
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Natural Gas Production and Processing 58 57 50 56 -9 -3
Conventional Oil Production 31 36 31 32 0 1
Light Oil Production
12 17 14 16 2 4
Heavy Oil Production
17 17 16 15 -2 -2
Frontier Oil Production
2 2 2 1 0 -1
Oil SandsFootnote 4 34 68 87 108 53 74
Bitumen In Situ
8 30 38 57 30 49
Bitumen Mining
10 18 26 27 17 17
Bitumen Upgrading
16 20 23 25 6 8
Oil and Natural Gas Transmission 12 10 9 10 -3 -3
Downstream Oil and Gas 23 23 23 23 0 0
Petroleum Products
22 21 22 22 0 0
Natural Gas Distribution
1 1 1 1 0 0
Liquid Natural Gas Production 0 0 0 3 0 3
Total 159 192 201 233 42 73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A7 Selected Upstream Oil and Natural Gas Subsectors: Emissions and Drivers
  2005 2014 2020 2030
Conventional Oil Production        
Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
31 36 31 32
Production (1,000 barrels/day)
1,361 1,401 1,309 1,247
Natural Gas Production and Processing        
Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
58 57 50 56
Gross Production (billion cubic feet)
7,753 6,829 6,319 7,366
Oil SandsFootnote 4        
Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
34 68 87 108
Production (1,000 barrels/day)
1,066 2,306 3,220 3,967

Note: Numbers do not include C5 and condensates.

Table A8 Petroleum Refining: Emissions and Drivers
Traditional Refineries 2005 2014 2020 2030
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq) 22 21 22 22
Refined Petroleum Processed (1,000 barrels/day) 2,095 1,952 2,033 2,033
Table A9 Electricity Generation: Emissions by Fuel Type (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Coal   97 62  52  8  -45  -90
Refined Petroleum Products   11 5  3  2  -9  -9
Natural Gas   9 12  9  24  0  15
Biomass   <1  <1  <1  <1  0  0
 Total  118  78  64  34  -53  -84

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A10 Electricity Sector: Emissions and Drivers
  2005 2014 2020 2030
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq) 118 78 64 34
Generation (Terawatt Hours) 550 580 595 607
Table A11 Transportation: Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Passenger Transport 97 95 89 73 -8 -24
Cars, Trucks and Motorcycles
88 86 80 64 -8 -25
Bus, Rail and Domestic Aviation
9 9 9 9 0 1
Freight Transport 62 68 70 73 7 11
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail
55 62 63 66 8 11
Domestic Aviation and Marine
8 6 7 7 -1 0
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 11 9 9 11 -2 -1
Total 171 171 168 157 -3 -14

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A12 Heavy Industry: Emissions by Subsector (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Mining 6 8 9 10 3 4
Smelting and Refining (Non-ferrous metals) 14 10 12 15 -2 1
Pulp and Paper 9 7 8 7 -1 -2
Iron and Steel 19 16 17 21 -2 1
Cement 13 10 10 11 -3 -2
Lime and Gypsum 3 3 2 3 -1 -1
Chemicals and Fertilizers 23 24 27 31 3 7
Total 88 76 85 97 -4 9

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A13 Buildings: Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Residential 46 46 45 46 -1 0
Commercial 40 41 44 49 5 9
Total 85 87 89 94 4 9

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A14 Buildings: Building Stock (million households and million m 2 floor space)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Residential: households (millions) 12 14 15 16 3 4
Commercial: floorspace (millions m2) 654 750 804 920 150 266
Table A15 Agriculture Sector: Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
On-Farm Fuel Use 9 14 13 14 5 5
Crop Production 17 22 21 21 5 5
Animal Production 45 37 37 39 -8 -6
Total 70 73 72 74 2 4

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A16 Waste and Others: Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq)
  2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Waste 31 29 23 23 -7 -8
Coal Production 3 4 4 3 1 1
Light Manufacturing, Construction and Forest Resources 23 22 24 27 2 4
Total 56 54 51 53 -5 -3

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

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