Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 2

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Emissions projections by sector

This section describes projected emissions by sectors defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by type of greenhouse gas, economic sector and subsector.

Table A1 Detailed Emissions Projections by IPCC Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical			Projected
Sector	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources	403	371	391	389	392
Transport	195	199	203	201	192
Industrial Processes	58	50	51	59	74
Agriculture	61	57	59	59	60
Waste	31	29	29	23	23
Total	747	706	732	731	742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A2 Detailed Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical			Projected
Sector	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Carbon dioxide (CO₂)	579	555	574	577	577
Methane (CH₄)	116	104	108	100	103
Nitrous oxide (N₂O)	41	38	39	39	40
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)	6	7	9	14	19
Perfluorocarbons (PFC)	4	2	1	1	2
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆)	1	0	0	0	0
Total	747	706	732	731	742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A3 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical	2015 Projection		2016 Projection		Change
Sector	2005	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources	403	417	450	389	392	-28	-58
Transport	195	204	198	201	192	-3	-6
Industrial Processes	58	66	84	59	74	-7	-10
Agriculture	61	60	61	59	60	-1	-1
Waste	31	21	22	23	23	2	1
Total	747	768	815	731	742	-37	-73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A4 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical	2015 Projection		2016 Projection		Change
Sector	2005	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030
CO₂	579	608	643	577	577	-31	-66
CH₄	116	103	104	100	103	-3	-1
N₂O	41	40	42	39	40	-1	-2
HFC	6	14	22	14	19	0	-3
PFC	4	2	2	1	2	-1	0
SF₆	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	747	768	815	731	742	-37	-73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A5 Change in GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (Mt Co ₂eq)
Sector	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Electricity	118	78	64	34	-53	-84
Transportation	171	171	168	157	-3	-14
Oil and Gas	159	192	201	233	42	73
Heavy Industry	88	76	85	97	-4	9
Buildings	85	87	89	94	4	9
Agriculture	70	73	72	74	2	4
Waste & Others	56	54	51	53	-5	-3
Total	747	732	731	742	-16	-6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Detailed Economic Sector Tables

Table A6 Oil and Gas Sector: Emissions by Production Type (Mt Co ₂ eq) ^{Footnote 4}
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Natural Gas Production and Processing	58	57	50	56	-9	-3
Conventional Oil Production	31	36	31	32	0	1
Light Oil Production	12	17	14	16	2	4
Heavy Oil Production	17	17	16	15	-2	-2
Frontier Oil Production	2	2	2	1	0	-1
Oil Sands^Footnote 4	34	68	87	108	53	74
Bitumen In Situ	8	30	38	57	30	49
Bitumen Mining	10	18	26	27	17	17
Bitumen Upgrading	16	20	23	25	6	8
Oil and Natural Gas Transmission	12	10	9	10	-3	-3
Downstream Oil and Gas	23	23	23	23	0	0
Petroleum Products	22	21	22	22	0	0
Natural Gas Distribution	1	1	1	1	0	0
Liquid Natural Gas Production	0	0	0	3	0	3
Total	159	192	201	233	42	73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A7 Selected Upstream Oil and Natural Gas Subsectors: Emissions and Drivers
	2005	2014	2020	2030
Conventional Oil Production
Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)	31	36	31	32
Production (1,000 barrels/day)	1,361	1,401	1,309	1,247
Natural Gas Production and Processing
Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)	58	57	50	56
Gross Production (billion cubic feet)	7,753	6,829	6,319	7,366
Oil Sands^Footnote 4
Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)	34	68	87	108
Production (1,000 barrels/day)	1,066	2,306	3,220	3,967

Note: Numbers do not include C5 and condensates.

Table A8 Petroleum Refining: Emissions and Drivers
Traditional Refineries	2005	2014	2020	2030
Emissions (Mt CO₂ eq)	22	21	22	22
Refined Petroleum Processed (1,000 barrels/day)	2,095	1,952	2,033	2,033

Table A9 Electricity Generation: Emissions by Fuel Type (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Coal	97	62	52	8	-45	-90
Refined Petroleum Products	11	5	3	2	-9	-9
Natural Gas	9	12	9	24	0	15
Biomass	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0
Total	118	78	64	34	-53	-84

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A10 Electricity Sector: Emissions and Drivers
	2005	2014	2020	2030
Emissions (Mt CO₂ eq)	118	78	64	34
Generation (Terawatt Hours)	550	580	595	607

Table A11 Transportation: Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Passenger Transport	97	95	89	73	-8	-24
Cars, Trucks and Motorcycles	88	86	80	64	-8	-25
Bus, Rail and Domestic Aviation	9	9	9	9	0	1
Freight Transport	62	68	70	73	7	11
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail	55	62	63	66	8	11
Domestic Aviation and Marine	8	6	7	7	-1	0
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential	11	9	9	11	-2	-1
Total	171	171	168	157	-3	-14

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A12 Heavy Industry: Emissions by Subsector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Mining	6	8	9	10	3	4
Smelting and Refining (Non-ferrous metals)	14	10	12	15	-2	1
Pulp and Paper	9	7	8	7	-1	-2
Iron and Steel	19	16	17	21	-2	1
Cement	13	10	10	11	-3	-2
Lime and Gypsum	3	3	2	3	-1	-1
Chemicals and Fertilizers	23	24	27	31	3	7
Total	88	76	85	97	-4	9

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A13 Buildings: Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Residential	46	46	45	46	-1	0
Commercial	40	41	44	49	5	9
Total	85	87	89	94	4	9

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A14 Buildings: Building Stock (million households and million m ² floor space)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Residential: households (millions)	12	14	15	16	3	4
Commercial: floorspace (millions m²)	654	750	804	920	150	266

Table A15 Agriculture Sector: Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
On-Farm Fuel Use	9	14	13	14	5	5
Crop Production	17	22	21	21	5	5
Animal Production	45	37	37	39	-8	-6
Total	70	73	72	74	2	4

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A16 Waste and Others: Emissions (Mt CO ₂ eq)
	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Waste	31	29	23	23	-7	-8
Coal Production	3	4	4	3	1	1
Light Manufacturing, Construction and Forest Resources	23	22	24	27	2	4
Total	56	54	51	53	-5	-3

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

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Date modified:: 2017-01-05