Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Canada prepares greenhouse gas emissions projections to 2040. These projections help us measure progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change.

Most recent projections

Questions about the projections or any content on this page should be sent to: epr-rpe@ec.gc.ca.

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Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Each year, we publish updated emissions projections. The latest projections from December 2024 were released as part of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report. Two bottom-up scenarios out to 2040 were developed:

  • The "Reference Case" scenario (identified as the With Measures scenario [WM] in the Biennial Transparency Report):
    • includes federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of August 2024
    • assumes no further government action
    • includes the accounting contribution from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector
  • The "Additional Measures" scenario (identified as the With Additional Measures scenario [WAM] in the Biennial Transparency Report):
    • includes all federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures from the “Reference Case” scenario as well as those that have been announced but have not yet been fully implemented
    • includes the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures, in addition to credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)

Notes:

  • Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures represent avoided conversion and restoration of ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and forest land, as well as the use of best management practices on agricultural land
  • The Western Climate Initiative supports greenhouse gas emissions trading programs and permits the purchase of GHG emissions credits from other participating jurisdictions
  • Impacts of the LULUCF accounting contribution, nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures are only represented under “Total GHG”
    • these impacts are not available when looking at results by pollutant

Key results:

  • In 2030, emissions are projected to
    • be 597 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq)Footnote 1 (or 22% below 2005 levelsFootnote 2) under the “Reference Case” scenario
    • decline to 514 Mt CO2 eq (or 32% below 2005 levels), under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
  • In 2035, emissions are projected to decline to:
    • 577 Mt CO2 eq (24% below 2005 levels) under the “Reference Case” scenario
    • 470 Mt CO2 eq (38% below 2005 levels) under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
  • In 2040, emissions are projected to decline further, reaching
    • 559 Mt CO2 eq (27% below 2005 levels) under the “Reference Case” scenario
    • 444 Mt CO2 eq (42% below 2005 levels) under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
  • Preliminary estimates for the GHG impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures indicate that these programs could reduce the net flux in the LULUCF sector by between 11 and 13 Mt CO2 eq per year from 2030 to 2040.
  • A central estimate of 12 Mt CO2 eq is used and shown separately for clarity. When including these estimates, emissions in the “Additional Measures” scenario reach:
    • 502 Mt CO2 eq in 2030
    • 458 Mt CO2 eq in 2035
    • 431 Mt CO2 eq in 2040

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by pollutant (XLSX format).

Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections

Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections

Canada’s emissions projections are developed and published at the provincial, territorial and economic sector levels. The visualization below shows emissions projections for the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios by area (province or territory) and by economic sector. Select the province or territory and economic sector from the filters on the left of the visualization to customize the graph.

Note that the results shown on this page for the “Additional Measures” scenario exclude the expected reductions from:

  • Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector accounting contribution
  • Nature-Based Climate Solutions
  • Agriculture Measures

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by area and economic sector (XLSX format).

Alternative scenarios

Alternative scenarios

Projections from the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios should be considered as estimates within a range of plausible outcomes given the uncertainty in future economic growth, energy prices, and developments in technologies. To address this uncertainty, we develop alternative scenarios showing the sensitivity of GHG emissions projections to variables such as energy prices, economic growth and the rate of adoption of various technologies. These scenarios also do not consider the impact of the LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, agriculture measures, and WCI Credits.

The graphic below shows results from two sets of alternative scenarios: a sensitivity analysis and technology scenarios.

Sensitivity analysis:

  • The sensitivity analysis looks at six scenarios, focusing on future economic and population growth rates, and world fossil fuel prices, using the same starting points as the “Reference Case” scenario.
  • Future economic growth or energy prices cannot be projected with certainty, so we examine different possible cases.
  • When gross domestic product (GDP) and population grow quickly, Canada’s uses more energy which increases emissions.
  • The opposite happens when gross domestic product and population grow slowly.
  • Changes in global oil and gas prices affect the Canadian economy in different ways:
    • When fossil fuel prices rise, sectors such as Heavy Industry and Electricity reduce their activity, use energy more efficiently and reduce natural gas electricity generation.
    • However, Canada's Oil and Gas sector invest more in developing new and existing resources because higher prices make it more profitable to produce and sell fossil fuels.

Technology scenarios:

  • Two Technology scenarios explore how varying technological progress could affect energy use and emissions, using the same starting points as the “Additional Measures” scenario.
  • These scenarios represent possible outcomes, not recommendations or predictions.
  • The Technology scenarios examine the impact of adopting new technologies and trends that could significantly reduce energy use and emissions.

Key results:

  • The low end of the sensitivity estimates has slow GDP growth, slow population growth, and low oil and gas prices.
  • The high end has fast GDP growth, high population growth, and high oil and gas prices.
  • The emissions difference between these scenarios is 48 Mt CO2 eq in 2030 and 132 Mt in 2040.
  • In the high oil and gas price scenario:
    • Heavy Industry and Electricity sectors reduce activity, increase efficiency, and cut natural gas electricity generation
    • Oil and Gas sector invests more in new and existing assets due to higher profits
    • Demand sectors react quickly to higher costs, while the Oil and Gas sector adjusts more slowly
  • The emissions range from the Oil and Gas sector is 30 Mt CO2 eq by 2030 and 91 Mt CO2 eq by 2040, making up 69% of the total emissions range by 2040.
  • The Heavy Industry sector reacts differently: fast GDP and population growth increase emissions, but high oil prices reduce them slightly due to higher fuel costs.
  • The opposite happens in slow growth and low-price scenarios.

Long description for alternative scenarios (XLSX format).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector

To meet its international reporting commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Canada is required to prepare a national communication every four years, and a biennial report every two years. Starting in 2024, Biennial Reports were replaced by Biennial Transparency reports. These reports include projections presented by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categories and by Canadian economic sectors.

Adjustments that are made to the IPCC categories to calculate economic sector emissions are discussed in more details in Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report.

The graphic below shows Canada’s emissions projections under the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios by IPCC categories. These results do not include the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact from nature-based climate solutions (NBCS), agriculture measures, and WCI Credits.

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by International Panel on Climate Change sector (XLSX format).

Air pollutant emissions projections

Air pollutant emissions projections

Air pollutant emissions projections inform both Canada’s domestic and international work related to improving air quality.

Each year, we publish updated air pollutant emissions projections and submit them to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) as part of Canada's reporting obligations under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP or Air Convention).

The graphic below tracks the changes in emissions from 2005 levels (except for black carbon, where data starts in 2013) for nine pollutants:

  • ammonia
  • carbon monoxide
  • mercury
  • nitrogen oxides
  • particulate matter 10
  • particulate matter 2.5
  • total particulate matter
  • sulphur oxides
  • volatile organic compounds
  • black carbon

Key results:

  • Since 2005, there has been a consistent decrease in emissions of:
    • carbon monoxide
    • mercury
    • nitrogen oxides
    • sulphur oxides
    • volatile organic compounds
  • Projections from both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios indicate that these air pollutants will continue to stay well below the 2005 levels by 2040
  • Emissions of total particulate matter (TPM), and particulate matter 10 (PM10) have increased since 2005
  • Emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions have remained comparable to their 2005 levels in 2022
  • Projections from both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios show that the overall particulate matter emissions are expected to increase steadily in the future
  • Note that these projections include open-source emissions (see more details below).
  • Ammonia emissions dipped below 2005 levels in 2022 but are projected to increase above 2005 levels continuously throughout the forecast period
    • This trend is driven by expected growth in agricultural activities
  • Black carbon emissions have steadily decreased since 2013 and are projected to decline continuously in both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios
1. Ammonia

Ammonia (NH3)

Most ammonia emissions in Canada originate from animal and crop production activities. They accounted for about 94% of total ammonia emissions in 2022. The next largest source of ammonia emissions is fertilizer production, responsible for approximately 2% of total 2022 emissions.

Historically, ammonia emissions have been relatively steady between 2005 and 2022, consistently staying below 500 kt each year. However, ammonia emissions are projected to increase gradually, driven by a steady increase in animal and crop production activities and expected increased use of nitrogen-based fertilizers.

Under the “Additional Measures” scenario, ammonia emissions are projected to be slightly lower compared to the “Reference Case” scenario. This reflects the indirect effects of additional funding programs and GHG mitigation measures implemented in the Agriculture sector. These contributed to a slower emissions growth trajectory for ammonia as well.

2. Carbon monoxide

Carbon Monoxide (CO)

The main source of CO emissions is incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon-based fuels, primarily from mobile sources. Other notable sources of CO emissions include:

  • wood industry
  • smelting and refining operations
  • residential wood heating

Since 2005, CO emissions have consistently trended downward and are projected to continue declining throughout the projection period. Between 2022 and 2030, this reduction is largely driven by the growing adoption of electric residential heating equipment. Beyond 2030, continuous efficiency improvements and electrification efforts in the Transportation sector are anticipated to play a significant role in further reducing CO emissions. However, the continued electrification of residential heating systems is also expected to remain a key driver of emissions reductions in the post-2030 period.

Under the “Additional Measures” scenario, further reductions in CO emissions are anticipated. Across both the pre- and post-2030 projection periods, this trend is primarily driven by the shift in the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors from hydrocarbon-based fuels to cleaner energy sources. Additionally, accelerated efficiency improvements in diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles, coupled with enhanced electrification efforts in the Transportation and Buildings sectors, are also expected to significantly reduce CO emissions beyond 2030.

3. Mercury

Mercury (Hg)

The main sources of mercury emissions include:

  • iron and steel production
  • smelting and refining operations
  • cement manufacturing
  • mining activities
  • coal-fired electric power generation
  • waste incineration
  • various commercial, residential, and institutional sources

Mercury emissions in Canada have declined significantly over the years, driven by:

  • reduced activity in the Heavy Industry sector
  • improved waste management practices
  • a decreasing reliance on coal-fired electricity generation

Between 2022 and 2030, emissions are expected to continue declining due to the ongoing transition away from coal-fired power plants.

However, beyond 2030, mercury emissions are projected to show a slight upward trend. This is primarily attributed to population growth, increasing mercury releases from waste incineration and rising economic activity in the Heavy Industry sector. While complete coal phase-out in the Electricity sector and regulations limiting the use of mercury-containing products are expected to contribute to a sustained decline in overall emissions during the later forecast period, these measures alone are unlikely to fully offset the upward pressures.

Under the “Additional Measures” scenario, further reductions in mercury emissions are expected. Across both pre- and post-2030 periods, the transition to hydrogen fuel and reduced reliance on fossil fuels in the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors are projected to lower mercury emissions considerably. Beyond 2030, additional reductions are anticipated through the accelerated electrification of heating systems in the Buildings sector. However, these efforts are unlikely to fully offset the upward emission trends in the later projection period, driven by population growth and expanded economic activities from the Heavy Industry sector.

4. Nitrogen oxides

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

The main sources of NOx emissions in Canada are:

  • diesel use in transportation
  • natural gas production and processing
  • oil sands operations
  • mining activities
  • coal-fired utility electric generation

There has been a consistent decline in NOx emissions since 2005, and this trend is expected to continue. From 2022 to 2030, this trend is primarily driven by the phasing out of coal for electricity generation, and the implementation of the Multi-Sector Air Pollutants Regulations (MSAPR) aimed at various industrial facilities within the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors. Beyond 2030, this reduction is expected to continue due to a range of measures aimed at lowering overall fossil fuel consumption in the Transportation, Buildings, and Oil and Gas sectors.

In the “Additional Measures” scenario, even greater reductions are projected. From 2022 to 2030, these reductions are largely attributed to decreasing fossil fuel use in the mining, natural gas, and oil sands industries. This trend is expected to continue beyond 2030, due to:

  • efficiency improvements in diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles
  • accelerated electrification initiatives in the Transportation and Buildings sectors
  • the introduction of the Clean Electricity Regulations
5. Particulate matter

Particulate matter

About 98% of total particulate matter emissions (total particulate matter [TPM], particulate matter 10 [PM10], and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) come from:

  • open sources including emissions from construction (excluding mobile and stationary off-road equipment emissions)
  • crop production
  • road dust

Other significant sources of PM emissions are:

  • coal-fired electric power generation
  • biomass combustion for space heating
  • production of non-ferrous metals
  • iron ore pelletizing

Despite measures like the Base-Level Industrial Emissions Requirements (BLIERs) that target non-open-source PM emissions from various industrial activities, the overall PM emissions are projected to rise in the future. This trend, primarily driven by the increase in open-source emissions outpacing reductions achieved in targeted industries, can be attributed to the expected growth in transportation and construction activities, as well as crop production.

In the “Additional Measures” scenario, PM emissions are projected to increase further, driven by increased freight activities that raise road dust emissions, along with a surge in energy investment projects that lead to more construction activities.

6. Sulphur Oxides

Sulphur Oxides (SOx)

In Canada, the main sources of sulphur oxides (SOx) emissions include:

  • the metallurgical industry
  • coal-fired electricity generation
  • natural gas processing
  • oil sands operations

SOx emissions in Canada have declined significantly in recent years and are projected to decrease further in the future. Between 2022 and 2030, this reduction is primarily driven by:

  • the phase-out of coal in electricity generation
  • regulations mandating low-sulphur fuels
  • the implementation of SOx emissions standards across various industrial activities

However, a slight upward trend is anticipated after 2030. This is attributed to the expiration of many SOx reduction measures around early 2030s and a projected rise in economic activity within the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors.

Further reductions are anticipated in the “Additional Measures” scenario. Across both the pre- and post-2030 projection periods, these reductions are primarily driven by the transition to hydrogen fuel and a decline in overall fossil fuel consumption within the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors.

7. Volatile organic compounds

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)

The main sources of VOCs emissions include:

  • fugitive releases from the Oil and Gas sector
  • light manufacturing subsector
  • the combustion of diesel and gasoline fuel in transportation
  • biomass burning for space heating

Moreover, the widespread use of everyday consumer products in homes and commercial businesses contributes to VOCs emissions from the Buildings sector.

VOCs emissions in Canada have been declining over the years and are projected to continue decreasing in the pre-2030 projection period. This reduction is mainly driven by regulations targeting CH4 and VOCs emissions in the upstream Oil and Gas sector, as well as the establishment of VOCs concentration limits in specific consumer products. Moreover, the expected reduction in demand for gasoline and diesel in the Transportation sector, along with reduced biomass use in residential buildings, further contribute to this positive trend. However, VOCs emissions are expected to remain stable after 2030 due to anticipated economic activity growth within the Heavy Industry sector and light manufacturing subsector.

In the “Additional Measures” scenario, VOC emissions are expected to be slightly higher than those in the “Reference Case” scenario during the pre-2030 projection period, primarily due to increased economic activity in the light manufacturing and commercial subsectors. After 2030, however, emissions are projected to be slightly below those in the “Reference Case” scenario. This additional reduction is driven by:

  • the transition to hydrogen fuel
  • reduced fossil fuel reliance in the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors
  • enhanced methane regulations that also curb VOC co-emissions from the Oil and Gas sector
8. Black Carbon

Black Carbon

The main sources of black carbon emissions are the combustion of diesel and biomass fuels. These emissions largely result from diesel consumption within the Transportation and Agriculture sectors, as well as residential firewood burning.

Black carbon emissions have consistently declined over the years, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. This reduction is driven by several key factors, including:

  • the widespread adoption of advanced pollution-control technologies
  • the implementation of stringent emission standards
  • the shift toward electrified residential heating systems

Collectively, these efforts are anticipated to significantly reduce black carbon emissions in both pre- and post-2030 projection periods.

Under the “Additional Measures” scenario, additional reductions are anticipated. From 2022 to 2030, the decline will be largely driven by the transition to hydrogen fuel and decreased demand for fossil fuels in the Oil and Gas and Heavy Industry sectors. After 2030, the emissions are expected to decrease at a greater rate, largely due to continuous efficiency improvements in diesel passenger vehicles, along with accelerated electrification efforts in the Transportation and Buildings sectors.

Additional details and graphics presenting emissions projections by economic sector for each pollutant are available below the first graphic.

Long description for air pollutant emissions projections (XLSX version).

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry net GHG flux and accounting contributions projections annually. In December 2024, the projections were updated and published as part of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report and include projections to 2040. The Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector is made up of six land categories: forests, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land, as well as a seventh category for harvested wood products derived from those lands.

Key results

  • the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change and forestry sector is projected to be a credit of 28 Mt CO2 eq in 2030 and 30 Mt CO2 eq in 2040
  • the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector is dominated by the Forest Land remaining Forest Land category and associated harvested wood products, which are projected to be a combined accounting credit of 38 Mt CO2 eq in 2030 and 39 Mt CO2 eq in 2040
  • reductions from nature-based solutions and agricultural measures are expected to be 11 to 13 Mt CO2 eq in both 2030 and 2040 (with the projections using a central estimate of 12 Mt CO2 eq) but are not included in the chart below

Note: Historical and projected accounting contributions are not comparable as the projected accounting contribution includes only elements for which net GHG flux projections are available.

Net GHG flux projections are also presented by Province/Territory.

Long description for Land use, land-use change and forestry (XLSX format).

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