Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Each year, we publish updated emissions projections. The latest projections from December 2024 were released as part of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report. Two bottom-up scenarios out to 2040 were developed:

• The "Reference Case" scenario (identified as the With Measures scenario [WM] in the Biennial Transparency Report):
  • includes federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of August 2024
  • assumes no further government action
  • includes the accounting contribution from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector
• The "Additional Measures" scenario (identified as the With Additional Measures scenario [WAM] in the Biennial Transparency Report):
  • includes all federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures from the “Reference Case” scenario as well as those that have been announced but have not yet been fully implemented
  • includes the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures, in addition to credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)

Notes:

• Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures represent avoided conversion and restoration of ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and forest land, as well as the use of best management practices on agricultural land
• The Western Climate Initiative supports greenhouse gas emissions trading programs and permits the purchase of GHG emissions credits from other participating jurisdictions
• Impacts of the LULUCF accounting contribution, nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures are only represented under “Total GHG”
  • these impacts are not available when looking at results by pollutant

Key results:

• In 2030, emissions are projected to
  • be 597 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂ eq)^{Footnote 1} (or 22% below 2005 levels^{Footnote 2}) under the “Reference Case” scenario
  • decline to 514 Mt CO₂ eq (or 32% below 2005 levels), under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
• In 2035, emissions are projected to decline to:
  • 577 Mt CO₂ eq (24% below 2005 levels) under the “Reference Case” scenario
  • 470 Mt CO₂ eq (38% below 2005 levels) under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
• In 2040, emissions are projected to decline further, reaching
  • 559 Mt CO₂ eq (27% below 2005 levels) under the “Reference Case” scenario
  • 444 Mt CO₂ eq (42% below 2005 levels) under the “Additional Measures” scenario (excluding nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures)
• Preliminary estimates for the GHG impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures indicate that these programs could reduce the net flux in the LULUCF sector by between 11 and 13 Mt CO₂ eq per year from 2030 to 2040.
• A central estimate of 12 Mt CO₂ eq is used and shown separately for clarity. When including these estimates, emissions in the “Additional Measures” scenario reach:
  • 502 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030
  • 458 Mt CO₂ eq in 2035
  • 431 Mt CO₂ eq in 2040

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by pollutant (XLSX format).

Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections

Canada’s emissions projections are developed and published at the provincial, territorial and economic sector levels. The visualization below shows emissions projections for the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios by area (province or territory) and by economic sector. Select the province or territory and economic sector from the filters on the left of the visualization to customize the graph.

Note that the results shown on this page for the “Additional Measures” scenario exclude the expected reductions from:

• Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector accounting contribution
• Nature-Based Climate Solutions
• Agriculture Measures

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by area and economic sector (XLSX format).

Alternative scenarios

Projections from the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios should be considered as estimates within a range of plausible outcomes given the uncertainty in future economic growth, energy prices, and developments in technologies. To address this uncertainty, we develop alternative scenarios showing the sensitivity of GHG emissions projections to variables such as energy prices, economic growth and the rate of adoption of various technologies. These scenarios also do not consider the impact of the LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, agriculture measures, and WCI Credits.

The graphic below shows results from two sets of alternative scenarios: a sensitivity analysis and technology scenarios.

Sensitivity analysis:

• The sensitivity analysis looks at six scenarios, focusing on future economic and population growth rates, and world fossil fuel prices, using the same starting points as the “Reference Case” scenario.
• Future economic growth or energy prices cannot be projected with certainty, so we examine different possible cases.
• When gross domestic product (GDP) and population grow quickly, Canada’s uses more energy which increases emissions.
• The opposite happens when gross domestic product and population grow slowly.
• Changes in global oil and gas prices affect the Canadian economy in different ways:
  • When fossil fuel prices rise, sectors such as Heavy Industry and Electricity reduce their activity, use energy more efficiently and reduce natural gas electricity generation.
  • However, Canada's Oil and Gas sector invest more in developing new and existing resources because higher prices make it more profitable to produce and sell fossil fuels.

Technology scenarios:

• Two Technology scenarios explore how varying technological progress could affect energy use and emissions, using the same starting points as the “Additional Measures” scenario.
• These scenarios represent possible outcomes, not recommendations or predictions.
• The Technology scenarios examine the impact of adopting new technologies and trends that could significantly reduce energy use and emissions.

Key results:

• The low end of the sensitivity estimates has slow GDP growth, slow population growth, and low oil and gas prices.
• The high end has fast GDP growth, high population growth, and high oil and gas prices.
• The emissions difference between these scenarios is 48 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030 and 132 Mt in 2040.
• In the high oil and gas price scenario:
  • Heavy Industry and Electricity sectors reduce activity, increase efficiency, and cut natural gas electricity generation
  • Oil and Gas sector invests more in new and existing assets due to higher profits
  • Demand sectors react quickly to higher costs, while the Oil and Gas sector adjusts more slowly
• The emissions range from the Oil and Gas sector is 30 Mt CO₂ eq by 2030 and 91 Mt CO₂ eq by 2040, making up 69% of the total emissions range by 2040.
• The Heavy Industry sector reacts differently: fast GDP and population growth increase emissions, but high oil prices reduce them slightly due to higher fuel costs.
• The opposite happens in slow growth and low-price scenarios.

Long description for alternative scenarios (XLSX format).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector

To meet its international reporting commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Canada is required to prepare a national communication every four years, and a biennial report every two years. Starting in 2024, Biennial Reports were replaced by Biennial Transparency reports. These reports include projections presented by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categories and by Canadian economic sectors.

Adjustments that are made to the IPCC categories to calculate economic sector emissions are discussed in more details in Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report.

The graphic below shows Canada’s emissions projections under the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios by IPCC categories. These results do not include the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact from nature-based climate solutions (NBCS), agriculture measures, and WCI Credits.

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by International Panel on Climate Change sector (XLSX format).

Air pollutant emissions projections

Air pollutant emissions projections inform both Canada’s domestic and international work related to improving air quality.

Each year, we publish updated air pollutant emissions projections and submit them to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) as part of Canada's reporting obligations under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP or Air Convention).

The graphic below tracks the changes in emissions from 2005 levels (except for black carbon, where data starts in 2013) for nine pollutants:

• ammonia
• carbon monoxide
• mercury
• nitrogen oxides
• particulate matter 10
• particulate matter 2.5
• total particulate matter
• sulphur oxides
• volatile organic compounds
• black carbon

Key results:

• Since 2005, there has been a consistent decrease in emissions of:
  • carbon monoxide
  • mercury
  • nitrogen oxides
  • sulphur oxides
  • volatile organic compounds
• Projections from both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios indicate that these air pollutants will continue to stay well below the 2005 levels by 2040
• Emissions of total particulate matter (TPM), and particulate matter 10 (PM₁₀) have increased since 2005
• Emissions of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions have remained comparable to their 2005 levels in 2022
• Projections from both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios show that the overall particulate matter emissions are expected to increase steadily in the future
• Note that these projections include open-source emissions (see more details below).
• Ammonia emissions dipped below 2005 levels in 2022 but are projected to increase above 2005 levels continuously throughout the forecast period
  • This trend is driven by expected growth in agricultural activities
• Black carbon emissions have steadily decreased since 2013 and are projected to decline continuously in both the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios

Additional details and graphics presenting emissions projections by economic sector for each pollutant are available below the first graphic.

Long description for air pollutant emissions projections (XLSX version).

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry net GHG flux and accounting contributions projections annually. In December 2024, the projections were updated and published as part of Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report and include projections to 2040. The Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector is made up of six land categories: forests, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land, as well as a seventh category for harvested wood products derived from those lands.

Key results

• the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change and forestry sector is projected to be a credit of 28 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030 and 30 Mt CO₂ eq in 2040
• the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector is dominated by the Forest Land remaining Forest Land category and associated harvested wood products, which are projected to be a combined accounting credit of 38 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030 and 39 Mt CO₂ eq in 2040
• reductions from nature-based solutions and agricultural measures are expected to be 11 to 13 Mt CO₂ eq in both 2030 and 2040 (with the projections using a central estimate of 12 Mt CO₂ eq) but are not included in the chart below

Note: Historical and projected accounting contributions are not comparable as the projected accounting contribution includes only elements for which net GHG flux projections are available.

Net GHG flux projections are also presented by Province/Territory.

Long description for Land use, land-use change and forestry (XLSX format).