Greenhouse gas emissions projections
Canada prepares greenhouse gas emissions projections that help us measure progress to protect the environment and human health from the threat of climate change by significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Most recent projections
- Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections: 2025
- Open data tables
- Summary results available in the 2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
- Full report to be released in early 2026
Questions about the projections or any content on this page should be sent to: enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca.
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Greenhouse gas emissions projections
Greenhouse gas emissions projections
Canada updates its greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions projections every year. The latest update from December 2025 includes two core scenarios looking ahead to 2035:
- “With Measures” scenario
- Includes federal, provincial, and territorial policies that were in place as of November 2025.
- Assumes no new policies or actions are added after November 2025.
- Includes emissions and removals from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.
- “With Additional Measures” scenario
- Builds on the “With Measures” scenario.
- Adds policies that have been announced but are not yet fully in place.
- Adds contribution from Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures (NBCS).
Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by pollutant (XLSX format).
Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections
Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections
Canada publishes emissions projections by province, territory and economic sector.
Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by area and economic sector (XLSX format).
Alternative scenarios
Alternative scenarios
Canada’s emissions projections are estimates based on many factors, including future economic growth, energy prices, and technology development. Because these factors are uncertain, we also create alternative scenarios to show how emissions could change under different conditions.
These scenarios do not include reductions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), Nature-Based Climate Solutions (NBCS), or Agriculture Measures.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector
To meet its international biennial reporting commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Canada must report its greenhouse gas emissions projections using categories defined by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Air pollutant emissions projections
Air pollutant emissions projections
Canada’s air pollutant emissions projections support both domestic and international efforts to improve air quality. Each year updated projections are published and submitted to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). This is part of Canada's reporting under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), also known as the Air Convention.
1. Ammonia
Ammonia (NH3)
Most ammonia emissions in Canada originate from animal, crop production and fertilizer use activities.
2. Carbon monoxide
Carbon Monoxide (CO)
Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions primarily result from incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels, especially from mobile sources. Other contributors include the wood industry, smelting and refining, and residential firewood use.
3. Mercury
Mercury (Hg)
Key sources of mercury emissions in Canada include iron and steel production, smelting, cement manufacturing, mining, coal-fired power generation, waste incineration, and various commercial and residential activities.
4. Nitrogen oxides
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions in Canada mainly stem from diesel use in transportation, natural gas production, oil sands operations, mining, and coal-fired electricity generation.
5. Particulate matter
Particulate matter
About 98% of total particulate matter emissions (total particulate matter [TPM], particulate matter 10 [PM10], and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) come from open sources including emissions from construction (excluding mobile and stationary off-road equipment emissions), crop production, and road dust.
Other significant sources of PM emissions are coal-fired electric power generation, biomass combustion for space heating, production of non-ferrous metals, and iron ore pelletizing.
6. Sulphur Oxides
Sulphur Oxides (SOx)
Sulphur oxides (SOx) emissions in Canada mainly originate from the metallurgical industry, coal-fired electricity generation, natural gas processing, and oil sands operations.
7. Volatile organic compounds
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in Canada primarily come from fugitive releases in the Oil and Gas sector, light manufacturing, fuel combustion in transportation, and biomass burning for space heating. Consumer products also contribute significantly, especially in the Buildings sector.
8. Black Carbon
Black Carbon
Black carbon emissions in Canada primarily result from the combustion of diesel and biomass fuels, with major sources including diesel use in Transportation and Agriculture, and residential firewood burning.
Additional details and graphics presenting emissions projections by economic sector for each pollutant are available below the first graphic.
Long description for air pollutant emissions projections (XLSX version).
Land use, land-use change and forestry
Land use, land-use change and forestry
Canada publishes annual projections for greenhouse gas (GHG) flux and accounting contributions from land use, land-use change, and forestry. The Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector is made up of six land categories: forests, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land, as well as a seventh category for harvested wood products derived from those lands.
Historical and projected accounting contributions cannot be directly compared because projections only include elements with available GHG flux data. Projections are also available by province and territory.
Previous projections and reports
- Canada’s First Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement: 2024
- Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections: 2023
- Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report on Climate Change
- Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections: 2021 (PDF)
- Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections: 2020 (PDF; 3.04 MB)
- Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections: 2019
- Canada's Fourth Biennial Report on Climate Change (complete report on the UNFCCC website)
- Canada's GHG and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections: 2018
- Seventh National Communication and Third Biennial Report on Climate Change
- Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case (PDF; 479 KB)
- Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (PDF; 2.55 MB)
- Sixth National Communication and First Biennial Report on Climate Change (PDF; 14.19 MB)
- Canada's Emissions Trends 2014 (PDF; 690 KB)
- Canada's Emissions Trends 2013 (PDF; 1.41 MB)
- Canada's Emissions Trends 2012 (PDF; 683 KB)
- Canada's Emissions Trends 2011 (PDF; 835 KB)
More information
- Canada's climate plan
- Canada's official greenhouse gas inventory
- Canada’s Air Pollutant Emissions Inventory
- Canada’s Black Carbon Emissions Inventory
- Canadian environmental sustainability indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions projections