Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 3


Detailed emissions by gas and by economic sector

Table A17 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 70 83 103 112 119 143 156 184
Electricity 94 97 128 117 94 77 64 33
Transportation 124 131 147 161 165 165 162 152
Heavy Industry 72 78 81 78 70 73 80 91
Buildings 68 73 78 78 72 77 75 74
Agriculture 8 10 11 10 12 15 15 15
Waste & Others 27 25 25 23 23 23 26 27
Total 463 497 572 579 555 574 577 577

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A18 Methane Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 36 49 55 47 42 48 44 47
Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transportation 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Heavy Industry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Buildings 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
Agriculture 27 31 33 36 30 29 29 30
Waste & Others 27 28 29 30 29 28 23 22
Total 95 113 121 116 104 108 100 103

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A19 Nitrous Oxide (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Electricity 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Transportation 5 6 7 7 5 4 4 4
Heavy Industry 12 12 3 4 2 2 2 2
Building 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Agriculture 22 24 25 25 26 29 28 28
Waste & Others 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total 42 46 40 41 38 39 39 40

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A20 Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transportation 0 0 1 2 2 3 2 0
Heavy Industry 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Buildings 0 0 2 3 4 6 10 17
Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waste & Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Total 1 1 3 6 7 9 14 19

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A21 Perfluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transportation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Heavy Industry 8 6 5 4 2 1 1 2
Buildings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waste & Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 8 6 5 4 2 1 1 2

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A22 Sulphur Hexafluoride Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transportation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Heavy Industry 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0
Buildings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waste & Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

The Table below presents the historical and projected emissions from foreign passenger and foreign freight (both aviation and marine). These emissions are not included in the reference scenario.

Table A23 Total GHGs from Foreign Passenger and Freight, Aviation and Marine (Mt CO 2 eq)
Sector Historical Projected
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2030
Foreign Freight 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3
Foreign Passenger 5 5 8 8 8 10 10 11
Table A24: Provincial and Territorial Reference Case Emissions: 2005 to 2030 (Mt CO 2 eq)
Provinces 2005 2014 2020 2030 Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Newfoundland 10 11 10 8 0 -2
Prince Edward Island 2 2 2 2 0 0
Nova Scotia 23 17 14 12 -10 -11
New Brunswick 20 15 15 14 -6 -7
Quebec* 90 83 85 86 -5 -3
Ontario* 211 170 168 170 -43 -40
Manitoba 21 21 22 23 2 3
Saskatchewan 70 76 73 69 3 0
Alberta 233 274 276 279 43 46
British Columbia 65 63 65 75 0 10
Territories 2 2 2 2 -1 0
Canada 747 732 731 742 -16 -6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

* These estimates represent domestic emissions. As such, they do not include potential allowances purchased internationally under the Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade program. Ontario and Quebec have legislated GHG emissions targets for 2020 and 2030. Both provinces have regulated emissions caps to achieve their 2020 targets, Ontario's target being 15% below 1990 and Quebec being 20% (representing, as of the 2014 Canadian inventory, the equivalent of 155 Mt and 71 Mt, respectively). The provinces will use a combination of new domestic policies and international allowances to meet their legislated targets. The impact of Ontario and Quebec’s acquisition of international allowances will be additional to reductions shown in Table A24, and have been included in the measures described on page 45 of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change.

Table A25 Macroeconomic Assumptions, 2005-2030 Average Annual Growth Rates
Assumption 2005-2014 2014-2020 2020-2030
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%
Average Annual Population Growth Rate 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%
Average Annual Labour Force Growth Rate 1.1% 0.7% 0.6%

Oil and natural gas production assumptions for the Reference case are noted in the tables below. Oil and natural gas price and production forecasts are from the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast presented in its Energy Futures 2016: Update - Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, October 2016.

Table A26 Crude Oil Production in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Crude Oil Production 2005 2014 2020 2030
Crude and Condensates 1,533 1,588 1,547 1,513
Conventional Light
511 712 578 652
Conventional Heavy
526 462 442 438
C5 and Condensates
173 186 239 266
Frontier Light (Offshore and Northern)
324 227 289 157
Oil Sands 1,066 2,306 3,220 3,967
Oil Sands: Primary
151 285 329 394
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
83 737 1,000 1,566
Cyclic Steam Simulation
205 244 309 405
Oil Sands Mining
627 1,039 1,582 1,602
Total Production (Gross) 2,599 3,893 4,767 5,479

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A27 Oil Sands Disposition in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Oil Sands Disposition 2005 2014 2020 2030
Oil Sands (gross) 1,066 2,306 3,220 3,967
Oil Sands (net)
980 2,191 3,084 3,824
Synthetic
611 1,027 1,262 1,381
Non-upgraded Bitumen
369 1,164 1,822 2,443
Own Use
86 115 136 143

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A28 Natural Gas Production and Supply in Billion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Production 2005 2014 2020 2030
Natural Gas Supply 6,595 6,115 6,490 7,641
Marketable Gas
6,263 5,342 5,406 6,371
Gross Production
7,753 6,829 6,319 7,366
Own Use Consumption
1,490 1,486 913 995
Imports
332 773 1,083 1,270
Liquid Natural Gas Production 0 0 0 912

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A29 Utility Electricity Generation by Fuel, Terawatt-hours
Fuel 2005 2014 2020 2030
Coal and Petroleum Coke 98 67 57 11
Hydro 327 348 374 392
Natural Gas 21 29 23 60
Nuclear 87 102 86 74
Other Renewables 4 30 53 69
Refined Petroleum Products 14 5 2 1
Total Generation 550 580 595 607

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A30 GHG Measures Reflected in Projections (in place as of November 2016)
Provincial/Territorial Measures
Alberta
  • Climate Leadership Plan:
    • Carbon levy
    • Coal Phase-Out
    • Emission performance standards and limits for oil sands
    • Renewable Electricity Program
  • Renewable fuels standard
  • Microgeneration regulation
  • Bioproducer and public transit programs
  • Quest carbon capture and storage project
  • Carbon Trunk Line Project - CO2 capture and use for enhanced oil recovery
British Columbia
  • Carbon tax
  • Renewable and low carbon fuel requirements regulation
  • Emissions offsets regulation
  • Landfill gas management regulation
  • British Columbia Clean Energy Act: Clean or renewable electricity requirement - 93% of electricity from clean or renewable sources
Manitoba
  • Ethanol sales mandate
  • Biodiesel mandate
  • Emissions tax on coal
New Brunswick
  • Renewable portfolio standard
Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Muskrat Falls hydro project
Nova Scotia
  • Renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation
  • Electricity demand-side management policies
  • Solid Waste-Resource Management Regulations
  • Cap on GHG emissions from the electricity sector
Ontario
  • Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime
  • Residential electricity peak savings (time-of-use pricing)
  • Feed-in tariff program
  • Landfill gas regulation (O. Reg. 216/08 and 217/08)
  • Coal phase-out
  • Independent Electricity System Operator contracted electricity supply
  • Ethanol in gasoline rules
  • Nuclear refurbishment
Quebec
  • Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime
  • 5% ethanol objective in gasoline distributors fuel sales
  • Drive electric program
  • Landfill gas regulation
  • Eco-performance program for industry
Saskatchewan
  • Ethanol fuel program
  • Renewable diesel program
  • Boundary Dam 3 Carbon Capture Project
Federal Measures
  • Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired generation of electricity regulations announced in 2012
  • Residential building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada
  • Commercial building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada
  • Renewable Fuels Regulations
  • Federal Budget 2016: Supporting Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Development.  Increase efficiency of residential and commercial devices (including refrigeration, freezers, ranges, dryers) through regulations and ENERGY STAR certification
  • Light-duty vehicles 1 (LDV-1) GHG emissions standards for the light-duty vehicle model years 2011 to 2016
  • Light-duty vehicles 2 (LDV-2) GHG emissions standards increases stringency for model years 2017 to 2025
  • Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) GHG emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicle model years 2014 to 2018
  • The pulp and paper green transformation program, to improve environmental performance of mills including GHG emissions reductions; the program ended in 2012 but will result in ongoing emission reductions
  • Incandescent lighting phase-out
  • Voluntary emission reductions for planes and trains

 

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