Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 3

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Table A17 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	70	83	103	112	119	143	156	184
Electricity	94	97	128	117	94	77	64	33
Transportation	124	131	147	161	165	165	162	152
Heavy Industry	72	78	81	78	70	73	80	91
Buildings	68	73	78	78	72	77	75	74
Agriculture	8	10	11	10	12	15	15	15
Waste & Others	27	25	25	23	23	23	26	27
Total	463	497	572	579	555	574	577	577

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A18 Methane Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	36	49	55	47	42	48	44	47
Electricity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Transportation	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Heavy Industry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Buildings	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3
Agriculture	27	31	33	36	30	29	29	30
Waste & Others	27	28	29	30	29	28	23	22
Total	95	113	121	116	104	108	100	103

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A19 Nitrous Oxide (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2
Electricity	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Transportation	5	6	7	7	5	4	4	4
Heavy Industry	12	12	3	4	2	2	2	2
Building	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Agriculture	22	24	25	25	26	29	28	28
Waste & Others	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Total	42	46	40	41	38	39	39	40

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A20 Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Electricity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Transportation	0	0	1	2	2	3	2	0
Heavy Industry	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Buildings	0	0	2	3	4	6	10	17
Agriculture	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Waste & Others	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Total	1	1	3	6	7	9	14	19

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A21 Perfluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Electricity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Transportation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Heavy Industry	8	6	5	4	2	1	1	2
Buildings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Agriculture	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Waste & Others	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	8	6	5	4	2	1	1	2

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A22 Sulphur Hexafluoride Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Oil and Gas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Electricity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Transportation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Heavy Industry	3	2	3	1	0	0	0	0
Buildings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Agriculture	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Waste & Others	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	3	2	3	1	0	0	0	0

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

The Table below presents the historical and projected emissions from foreign passenger and foreign freight (both aviation and marine). These emissions are not included in the reference scenario.

Table A23 Total GHGs from Foreign Passenger and Freight, Aviation and Marine (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Sector	Historical						Projected
Sector	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2020	2030
Foreign Freight	4	5	5	5	4	3	3	3
Foreign Passenger	5	5	8	8	8	10	10	11

Table A24: Provincial and Territorial Reference Case Emissions: 2005 to 2030 (Mt CO ₂ eq)
Provinces	2005	2014	2020	2030	Change 2005 to 2020	Change 2005 to 2030
Newfoundland	10	11	10	8	0	-2
Prince Edward Island	2	2	2	2	0	0
Nova Scotia	23	17	14	12	-10	-11
New Brunswick	20	15	15	14	-6	-7
Quebec*	90	83	85	86	-5	-3
Ontario*	211	170	168	170	-43	-40
Manitoba	21	21	22	23	2	3
Saskatchewan	70	76	73	69	3	0
Alberta	233	274	276	279	43	46
British Columbia	65	63	65	75	0	10
Territories	2	2	2	2	-1	0
Canada	747	732	731	742	-16	-6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

* These estimates represent domestic emissions. As such, they do not include potential allowances purchased internationally under the Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade program. Ontario and Quebec have legislated GHG emissions targets for 2020 and 2030. Both provinces have regulated emissions caps to achieve their 2020 targets, Ontario's target being 15% below 1990 and Quebec being 20% (representing, as of the 2014 Canadian inventory, the equivalent of 155 Mt and 71 Mt, respectively). The provinces will use a combination of new domestic policies and international allowances to meet their legislated targets. The impact of Ontario and Quebec’s acquisition of international allowances will be additional to reductions shown in Table A24, and have been included in the measures described on page 45 of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change.

Table A25 Macroeconomic Assumptions, 2005-2030 Average Annual Growth Rates
Assumption	2005-2014	2014-2020	2020-2030
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%
Average Annual Population Growth Rate	1.1%	1.0%	0.9%
Average Annual Labour Force Growth Rate	1.1%	0.7%	0.6%

Oil and natural gas production assumptions for the Reference case are noted in the tables below. Oil and natural gas price and production forecasts are from the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast presented in its Energy Futures 2016: Update - Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, October 2016.

Table A26 Crude Oil Production in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Crude Oil Production	2005	2014	2020	2030
Crude and Condensates	1,533	1,588	1,547	1,513
Conventional Light	511	712	578	652
Conventional Heavy	526	462	442	438
C5 and Condensates	173	186	239	266
Frontier Light (Offshore and Northern)	324	227	289	157
Oil Sands	1,066	2,306	3,220	3,967
Oil Sands: Primary	151	285	329	394
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage	83	737	1,000	1,566
Cyclic Steam Simulation	205	244	309	405
Oil Sands Mining	627	1,039	1,582	1,602
Total Production (Gross)	2,599	3,893	4,767	5,479

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A27 Oil Sands Disposition in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Oil Sands Disposition	2005	2014	2020	2030
Oil Sands (gross)	1,066	2,306	3,220	3,967
Oil Sands (net)	980	2,191	3,084	3,824
Synthetic	611	1,027	1,262	1,381
Non-upgraded Bitumen	369	1,164	1,822	2,443
Own Use	86	115	136	143

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A28 Natural Gas Production and Supply in Billion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Production	2005	2014	2020	2030
Natural Gas Supply	6,595	6,115	6,490	7,641
Marketable Gas	6,263	5,342	5,406	6,371
Gross Production	7,753	6,829	6,319	7,366
Own Use Consumption	1,490	1,486	913	995
Imports	332	773	1,083	1,270
Liquid Natural Gas Production	0	0	0	912

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A29 Utility Electricity Generation by Fuel, Terawatt-hours
Fuel	2005	2014	2020	2030
Coal and Petroleum Coke	98	67	57	11
Hydro	327	348	374	392
Natural Gas	21	29	23	60
Nuclear	87	102	86	74
Other Renewables	4	30	53	69
Refined Petroleum Products	14	5	2	1
Total Generation	550	580	595	607

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A30 GHG Measures Reflected in Projections (in place as of November 2016)
Provincial/Territorial Measures
Alberta	Climate Leadership Plan: Carbon levy Coal Phase-Out Emission performance standards and limits for oil sands Renewable Electricity Program Renewable fuels standard Microgeneration regulation Bioproducer and public transit programs Quest carbon capture and storage project Carbon Trunk Line Project - CO₂ capture and use for enhanced oil recovery
British Columbia	Carbon tax Renewable and low carbon fuel requirements regulation Emissions offsets regulation Landfill gas management regulation British Columbia Clean Energy Act: Clean or renewable electricity requirement - 93% of electricity from clean or renewable sources
Manitoba	Ethanol sales mandate Biodiesel mandate Emissions tax on coal
New Brunswick	Renewable portfolio standard
Newfoundland and Labrador	Muskrat Falls hydro project
Nova Scotia	Renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation Electricity demand-side management policies Solid Waste-Resource Management Regulations Cap on GHG emissions from the electricity sector
Ontario	Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime Residential electricity peak savings (time-of-use pricing) Feed-in tariff program Landfill gas regulation (O. Reg. 216/08 and 217/08) Coal phase-out Independent Electricity System Operator contracted electricity supply Ethanol in gasoline rules Nuclear refurbishment
Quebec	Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime 5% ethanol objective in gasoline distributors fuel sales Drive electric program Landfill gas regulation Eco-performance program for industry
Saskatchewan	Ethanol fuel program Renewable diesel program Boundary Dam 3 Carbon Capture Project
Federal Measures
Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired generation of electricity regulations announced in 2012 Residential building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada Commercial building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada Renewable Fuels Regulations Federal Budget 2016: Supporting Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Development. Increase efficiency of residential and commercial devices (including refrigeration, freezers, ranges, dryers) through regulations and ENERGY STAR certification Light-duty vehicles 1 (LDV-1) GHG emissions standards for the light-duty vehicle model years 2011 to 2016 Light-duty vehicles 2 (LDV-2) GHG emissions standards increases stringency for model years 2017 to 2025 Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) GHG emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicle model years 2014 to 2018 The pulp and paper green transformation program, to improve environmental performance of mills including GHG emissions reductions; the program ended in 2012 but will result in ongoing emission reductions Incandescent lighting phase-out Voluntary emission reductions for planes and trains

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Date modified:: 2017-01-05

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Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 3

Detailed emissions by gas and by economic sector

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