Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 4

Alternate emissions scenarios

Given the uncertainty regarding the key drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Reference Case presented in the previous section should be seen as one estimate within a set of possible emissions outcomes in the projection period, as events that will shape emissions and energy markets cannot be fully anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty. The variation in these complex economic and energy variables implies that modelling results are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Environment and Climate Change Canada addresses this uncertainty via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in two key factors: future economic growth projections and the evolution of oil and natural gas prices and production as per the National Energy Board’s high and low forecast scenarios. These assumptions are presented in Tables A31 and A32, and the overall range of emissions is presented in Table A33.

*Numbers do not include C5 and condensates