Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions reference case: chapter 7

Key assumptions

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections depend on a number of economic and energy variables and are subject to significant uncertainty, especially in the longer term. The emissions projections reference case is designed to incorporate the best available information about economic growth as well as energy demand and supply into the future. The projections capture the impacts on GHG emissions of future production of goods and services in Canada.

Historical data on key macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), population, and consumer price indices are obtained from Statistics Canada. Statistics Canada also produces the historical energy data used in the model in the Report on Energy Supply and Demand. The latest historical GHG emissions are obtained from the 2016 National Inventory Report (NIR).

In the forecast, key macroeconomic variables in the model such as GDP, the exchange rate, and inflation are aligned to Finance Canada’s projections. The economic projections to the year 2021 are calibrated to Finance Canada’s Fall Economic Statement 2016. The outer years (2022-2030) are based on Finance Canada’s 2014 Update of Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections. Population growth projections are obtained from Statistics Canada. Forecasts of oil and natural gas price and production are taken from the National Energy Board (NEB)’s Canada’s Energy Future.