Canada's Emission Trends 2014: chapter 1

Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Global Context

• Canada’s Share of Global Emissions
• Canada’s National Circumstances
• Emissions per Capita and Emissions Intensity
• International Cooperation
• The Electricity Sector in Canada

Canada’s Share of Global Emissions

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by approximately 40% between 1990 and 2011,^Footnote 3 with the bulk of the emissions growth coming from emerging markets and developing countries. Canada’s share of world cumulative emissions since 1990 has been below 2%.

Figure 1: GHG Emissions Growth, 1990 to 2010

Source: World Resources Institute 2014, CAIT database

Canada’s share of total global emissions, like that of other developed countries, is expected to continue to decline in the face of the expected rapid emissions growth from developing countries and emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. By 2005, China had overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest overall GHG emitter and in 2011 accounted for 24% of total global GHG emissions.^Footnote 4

Figure 2: Breakdown of Total World Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2011

Source: World Resources Institute 2014, CAIT database.

Canada’s National Circumstances

Canada is fortunate to be naturally endowed with vast expanses of land and water, abundant mineral and energy resources, and geographic variation. However, these attributes also create enormous challenges from the perspective of achieving reductions of GHG emissions in comparison with most developed countries. Canada has the largest land mass of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which creates long distances and longer travel times for both passenger and freight transportation needs. Our climate is highly variable and extreme, affecting energy demand for both winter heating and summer cooling in our residential and commercial buildings. Heating requirements for households and businesses are greater than in most other developed countries and are primarily supplied by fossil fuels. Resource extraction of minerals, fossil fuels and other energy-intensive primary resources supply increasing world demand and are a significant contributor to Canada’s economic growth, but also affect Canada’s emissions profile.

While Canada’s population remains the smallest among the G7 countries, it is the fastest-growing, with an annual population growth rate of just over 1%. In addition, Canada has experienced sustained economic growth and ranks 11th in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) on a per capita basis.^Footnote 5 As a natural resource-rich economy, Canada is a significant exporter of energy and net exporter of agricultural commodities and many emissions-intensive resource-based commodities such as pulp and paper, mined metals and aluminum. Canada has an energy-intensive industrial sector, and over the past decade, industrial output has risen substantially and Canada’s exports of energy, extracted resources and agricultural commodities as a share of GDP have increased by almost 40%.

Global energy demand is expected to grow by one third between 2012 and 2035, and fossil fuels are expected to remain a key component of supply for decades to come. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2013 World Energy Outlook reference case suggests that fossil fuels, as a share of world energy use, will decrease but still provide over three quarters of the world’s energy use in 2035. Given that Canada is a key supplier and exporter of energy resources, our production of oil and gas is projected to rise to meet this demand.

Among the member countries of the IEA, Canada’s energy profile is characterized by one of the highest rates of total primary energy supply^Footnote 6 per unit of GDP. The IEA notes that factors driving energy consumption in Canada are a significant concentration of energy-intensive primary industries; a cold and extreme climate; a small, highly dispersed population; a high standard of living with minimal constraints on space occupation; and vast geography (which affects population density and transportation needs).^Footnote 7 Canada has slightly higher-than-average rates of energy use per passenger-kilometres and ranks as one of the highest in terms of number of vehicle miles travelled per person in the IEA countries. Canada has the third-highest residential primary energy consumption per household and has among the highest energy intensities of IEA countries in the service sector (mostly due to energy use in buildings).

Despite these challenges and steady growth in energy consumption, Canada has made significant improvements. Taking into account differences in economic structure, weather and other effects, energy efficiency improved by 25% in Canada between 1990 and 2010.^Footnote 8

Emissions per Capita and Emissions Intensity

Emissions intensity, defined as GHG emissions per dollar of GDP, measures the relationship between economic activity and emissions. Although emissions are intrinsically linked to economic activity, this linkage has weakened in Canada over the past two decades due to technological and structural changes such as increases in energy efficiency and the growth of lower-emissions and service-based industries. Although GHG emissions have risen by 18% since 1990, Canada’s economy grew much more rapidly, with GDP rising by 67%. As a result, the emissions intensity for the entire economy has improved considerably, declining at an average annual rate of 1.3% between 1990 and 2012, or a cumulative 29% over the entire period. Emissions intensity is expected to continue to decrease in Canada through 2020.

Per capita emissions have been decreasing significantly since 2005, when they were 22.8 tonnes of CO₂ eq per person. In 2012, emissions per capita were 20.1 tonnes of CO₂ eq per person, which is the lowest level recorded since records began in 1990.

Projections show per capita emissions are expected to decrease through 2020, falling to 19.7 tonnes of CO₂ eq per person in 2020. This reflects a projected increase in Canada’s population of 17% between 2005 and 2020, compared with a projected 1.2% decrease in emissions when LULUCF is included.

International Cooperation

Effective climate change mitigation requires that all countries act to reduce emissions, and accordingly, Canada will continue to do its part. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Canada signed onto the Copenhagen Accord in December 2009 and committed to reduce its GHG emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020.

The Government of Canada’s approach is to encourage strong economic growth and job creation while achieving its environmental objectives. Canada’s economy is projected to be approximately 32% larger (in real terms) in 2020 compared with 2005 levels.

In recognition of the need for a global solution to address climate change, in 2011 Parties agreed to launch the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action negotiations under the UNFCCC with a view to establishing, by 2015, a new climate change agreement for the post-2020 period that is applicable to all Parties. This development was an important breakthrough for countries like Canada with a long-standing objective to establish a climate change agreement that includes all major emitters. Canada is working with UNFCCC member countries towards the establishment of a new, effective international climate change agreement.

Outside the UNFCCC, Canada is actively participating in a number of international collaborative efforts, including sectoral and regional initiatives and partnerships, that complement the formal UNFCCC negotiations and encourage concrete actions to address climate change. These include the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, the Arctic Council, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, and the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate Change.