Canada's Emission Trends 2014: chapter 4

Projected Alternate Emissions Scenarios

Given the uncertainty regarding the key drivers of GHG emissions, the scenario presented in the previous section should be seen as one estimate within a set of possible emissions outcomes in the projection period, as events that will shape emissions and energy markets cannot be fully anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty. The variation in these complex economic and energy variables implies that modeling results are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Environment Canada addresses this uncertainty via modeling and analysis of alternative cases that focus on variability in two key factors: future economic growth projections; and the evolution of oil and natural gas prices and production as per National Energy Board high and low scenarios. These assumptions are presented in Table 20 and Table 21 below.

The most extreme results of varying economic growth and world oil/natural gas price assumptions are presented in Figure 6. Under the scenario with the highest emissions, emissions could reach 781 Mt by 2020 (excluding the contributions from LULUCF). Alternatively, in the low emissions case, 2020 emissions could be as low as 716 Mt (excluding LULUCF).

The range in total projected emissions from all scenarios rises as we extend our projection further into the future. As a result of the assumptions made about the growth in Canadian GDP and future oil and natural gas price and production, the range is roughly 65 Mt in 2020.

These sensitivities illustrate that Canada’s emissions projections should not be interpreted as a precise estimate of our emissions because, as outlined above, actual emissions will be determined by a range of as yet unknown developments in key drivers. Rather, the projections should be viewed as one plausible outcome for future emissions that provides a reference point for evaluating the impact of economic and technological developments, as well as assessing the impact of future government measures.

Figure 6: Projected GHG Emissions Under Alternative Economic Assumptions

It is important to note that the projection of emissions in this report is based on existing government measures as of the spring of 2014 only and does not reflect the impact of further federal, provincial or territorial measures that are under development or that could be undertaken in the future. Likewise, specific federal, provincial and territorial targets are not directly modeled in these scenarios.