Temperature change in Canada
Temperature is a key indicator of how the climate is changing in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities, as increasing GHG concentrations result in warming of the lower atmosphere. Temperature change can influence crops, forests, infrastructure, human health, the spread of disease, the availability of water and the health of ecosystems. Warming temperatures increase the risks of abrupt and/or irreversible impacts on ecosystems and the climate system.
Using the average temperature values from 1961 to 1990 as a baseline, this indicator compares how much the temperature for a given year departs from the "normal". The indicator shows the national annual and seasonal air temperature departuresFootnote 1 for the years 1948 to 2025. It also represents spatially the temperature departures for 2025 and the change in temperature since 1948.
Annual
National annual temperature change
Key results
- In Canada, the national average temperature in 2025 was 2.1 degrees Celsius (°C) above the 1961 to 1990 reference value
- From 1948 to 2025, the trend in average temperature showed an increase of 2.3°CFootnote 2
- Annual average temperatures have been consistently above or equal to the reference value since 1997
Annual average temperature departures from the 1961 to 1990 reference value, Canada, 1948 to 2025
Data table for the long description
| Year | Temperature departure (degrees Celsius) | Warmest year ranking |
|---|---|---|
| 1948 | -0.3 | 64 |
| 1949 | -0.4 | 67 |
| 1950 | -1.6 | 77 |
| 1951 | -0.9 | 74 |
| 1952 | 0.6 | 32 |
| 1953 | 0.7 | 29 |
| 1954 | -0.2 | 59 |
| 1955 | -0.4 | 65 |
| 1956 | -0.9 | 75 |
| 1957 | -0.4 | 66 |
| 1958 | 0.4 | 41 |
| 1959 | -0.6 | 71 |
| 1960 | 0.2 | 44 |
| 1961 | -0.2 | 57 |
| 1962 | -0.2 | 60 |
| 1963 | 0.1 | 48 |
| 1964 | -0.5 | 70 |
| 1965 | -0.8 | 73 |
| 1966 | -0.3 | 63 |
| 1967 | -0.5 | 68 |
| 1968 | 0.1 | 47 |
| 1969 | 0.2 | 43 |
| 1970 | -0.3 | 62 |
| 1971 | 0.0 | 51 |
| 1972 | -1.9 | 78 |
| 1973 | 0.7 | 26 |
| 1974 | -0.7 | 72 |
| 1975 | -0.1 | 53 |
| 1976 | 0.0 | 50 |
| 1977 | 1.0 | 21 |
| 1978 | -0.5 | 69 |
| 1979 | -0.1 | 56 |
| 1980 | 0.3 | 42 |
| 1981 | 1.9 | 9 |
| 1982 | -1.0 | 76 |
| 1983 | 0.2 | 45 |
| 1984 | 0.4 | 40 |
| 1985 | -0.1 | 55 |
| 1986 | 0.1 | 46 |
| 1987 | 1.7 | 13 |
| 1988 | 0.7 | 27 |
| 1989 | -0.2 | 61 |
| 1990 | 0.0 | 52 |
| 1991 | 0.5 | 34 |
| 1992 | -0.1 | 54 |
| 1993 | 0.4 | 39 |
| 1994 | 0.4 | 37 |
| 1995 | 0.5 | 36 |
| 1996 | -0.2 | 58 |
| 1997 | 0.6 | 31 |
| 1998 | 2.2 | 5 |
| 1999 | 1.8 | 12 |
| 2000 | 0.8 | 24 |
| 2001 | 1.8 | 10 |
| 2002 | 0.4 | 38 |
| 2003 | 1.0 | 20 |
| 2004 | 0.1 | 49 |
| 2005 | 1.6 | 14 |
| 2006 | 2.4 | 4 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | 23 |
| 2008 | 0.6 | 30 |
| 2009 | 0.7 | 28 |
| 2010 | 2.9 | 2 |
| 2011 | 1.3 | 16 |
| 2012 | 1.8 | 11 |
| 2013 | 0.7 | 25 |
| 2014 | 0.5 | 35 |
| 2015 | 1.3 | 17 |
| 2016 | 2.0 | 8 |
| 2017 | 1.5 | 15 |
| 2018 | 0.5 | 33 |
| 2019 | 0.9 | 22 |
| 2020 | 1.2 | 18 |
| 2021 | 2.1 | 7 |
| 2022 | 1.1 | 19 |
| 2023 | 2.7 | 3 |
| 2024 | 3.0 | 1 |
| 2025 | 2.1 | 6 |
Note: Annual average temperature departures were computed for weather stations across Canada with sufficiently long data records to allow for trend calculation and were then interpolated to a 10-kilometre spaced grid. Annual grid points values were averaged together to produce an annual time series of temperature departures representing the entire country.
Download data file (Excel/CSV; 2.13 kB)
How this indicator was calculated
Note: Departures are calculated by subtracting the 1961 to 1990 reference value from the annual average. A positive departure indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative departure indicates the opposite.
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026a) Canadian homogenized surface air temperature.
The year 2025 was the sixth warmest year on record, with 2.1°C above the 1961 to 1990 reference value. Seven (7) of the 10 warmest years have occurred during the last 20 years. Canada's coldest year since 1948 occurred in 1972 at 1.9°C below the reference value.
Globally, 2025 was one of the 3 warmest years recorded in 176 years (1850-2025) with average temperatures 1.4°C higher than in the pre-industrial era (1850 to 1900). For global mean temperature, the past 11 years, 2015 to 2025, were the 11 warmest years on record (World Meteorological Organization, 2026).
Almost all the warming in Canada has occurred since 1970 (Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026b). Warming rates are different across regions of the country and temperatures have increased more in northern Canada than in southern Canada. Since 1970, Canada has warmed nearly twice as fast as the global average and the Canadian Arctic has warmed 3 times as fast as the global average.
Seasonal
National seasonal temperature change
Key results
- Like the national annual average temperature, seasonal average temperatures increased over the 1948 to 2025 period.
- Warming trends were detected for all 4 seasons:
- winterFootnote 3 average temperatures increased by 3.7°C
- spring average temperatures increased by 2.0°C
- summer average temperatures increased by 2.1°C
- autumn average temperatures increased by 2.5°C
- 2025 saw the warmest autumn since 1948. The warmest winter was in 2024, the warmest summer was in 2023, and the warmest spring was in 2010.
Seasonal average temperature departures compared with the 1961 to 1990 reference value, Canada, 1948 to 2025
Data table for the long description
| Year | Temperature departure in winter (degrees Celsius) |
Temperature departure in spring (degrees Celsius) |
Temperature departure in summer (degrees Celsius) |
Temperature departure in autumn (degrees Celsius) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| 1949 | -1.8 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| 1950 | -3.3 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| 1951 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| 1952 | -1.4 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| 1953 | 2.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| 1954 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.1 | 0.9 |
| 1955 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 0.6 | -0.7 |
| 1956 | -0.6 | -1.8 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| 1957 | -2.1 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1958 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| 1959 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| 1960 | 2.5 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 1961 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| 1962 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 |
| 1963 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| 1964 | 1.4 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| 1965 | -2.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.2 |
| 1966 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| 1967 | -0.7 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 1968 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -1.2 | 1.3 |
| 1969 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1970 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1971 | -1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 1972 | -3.4 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -1.8 |
| 1973 | -1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1974 | -1.1 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| 1975 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1976 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 1977 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| 1978 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| 1979 | -2.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 1980 | 1.8 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| 1981 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 1982 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 1983 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 1984 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.8 |
| 1985 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 |
| 1986 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.7 | -1.8 |
| 1987 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 1988 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1989 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.6 |
| 1990 | -0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| 1991 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | -0.7 |
| 1992 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 1993 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| 1994 | -1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| 1995 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| 1996 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| 1997 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 1998 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1999 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 2000 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 2001 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 2.5 | -2.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2003 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| 2005 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| 2006 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 2008 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| 2010 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 2012 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 2013 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 2014 | -0.8 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 2017 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 2018 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| 2022 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 2024 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| 2025 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
Note: Seasonal average temperature departures were computed for weather stations across Canada with sufficiently long data records to allow for trend calculation and were then interpolated to a 10-kilometre spaced grid. Seasonal grid point values were averaged together to produce a seasonal time series of temperature departures representing the entire country.
Download data file (Excel/CSV; 3.19 kB)
How this indicator was calculated
Note: Departures are calculated by subtracting the 1961 to 1990 reference value from the seasonal average. A positive departure indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative departure indicates the opposite. Seasons are defined as winter (December, January and February), spring (March, April and May), summer (June, July and August), and autumn (September, October and November).
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026a) Canadian homogenized surface air temperature.
Regional
Regional temperature departures
This section presents the difference between temperatures recorded in 2025 and the normal (departures from the 1961 to 1990 reference value) at the regional level.
Key results
In 2025,
- All of Canada experienced annual temperatures above the 1961 to 1990 reference value
- Most of northern Canada and the northern parts of Quebec and Labrador, experienced temperatures significantly above the baseline average
- Annual temperatures were closest to the baseline average in southern New Brunswick, southeastern Quebec, southern Ontario, southern Saskatchewan, central Alberta, and along the Pacific coast
Regional average temperature departures from the 1961 to 1990 reference value, Canada, 2025
Long description
The map shows the average temperature departures from the 1961 to 1990 reference value in degrees Celsius for the year 2025.
How this indicator was calculated
Navigate data using the interactive map
Note: 2025 annual average temperature departures were computed for 651 active weather stations across Canada. Departures are calculated by subtracting the 1961 to 1990 reference value from the annual average. A positive departure indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative departure indicates the opposite.
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026c) Canadian gridded homogenized surface air temperature.
Regional temperature trends
This section presents the long-term trends in temperature change over the period from 1948 to 2025 at the regional level.
Key results
Over the period from 1948 to 2025,
- All of Canada experienced an increase in annual average temperature
- Increases of at least 1°C were observed almost everywhere across the country
- Most of northern Canada and northern parts of British Columbia, the Prairies and Quebec saw increases of more than 2°C
Regional temperature change trend, Canada, 1948 to 2025
Long description
The map shows the long-term trends in temperature change over the period from 1948 to 2025 at the regional level.
How this indicator was calculated
Navigate data using the interactive map
Note: Annual average temperature trends were computed for 651 weather stations across Canada. The change in temperature was obtained through a linear trend analysis.
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026c) Canadian gridded homogenized surface air temperature.
About the indicator
About the indicator
What the indicator measures
The Temperature change in Canada indicator helps show how Canada's surface air temperature has changed since nationwide recording of consistent and comparable climate observations began in 1948. The indicator shows the yearly and seasonal surface air temperature departures for the years 1948 to 2025. As well, it presents the geographic distributions of surface air temperature departures for the year 2025 and trends in temperature over the period from 1948 to 2025.
An annual departure is the difference between the value for a given year and a baseline value. The baseline values used in this indicator are the annual and seasonal temperature averages for the reference period of 1961 to 1990 (often referred to as the "1961 to 1990 normal"). This reference period is consistent with the approach used to compare anomalies in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report and the World Meteorological Organization Annual Statements on the Status of the Global Climate. The temperature departures are measured in degrees Celsius (°C) and calculated using data from weather stations across Canada with long enough data records for a meaningful trend calculation.
Why this indicator is important
The heat-trapping effect of atmospheric greenhouse gases is well established. Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023). Evidence of a human influence on many other changes in climate is widespread.
Warming temperatures have driven wide-ranging, interconnected, and sustained changes across Canada (Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026b). The changes include more extreme heat, less extreme cold, longer growing seasons, longer fire seasons, earlier peak stream flow, shorter snow and ice cover seasons, thinning glaciers, thawing permafrost, warming oceans and rising sea level. Human-caused warming is the only explanation for the collective changes observed. Much of Canadian economic and social activity, as well as individual health, is climate dependent. Studies have shown that extreme heat (over 30°C) increases deaths in Canadian cities. Those with underlying conditions such as cardiovascular disease, schizophrenia and pregnancy may experience more severe effects of extreme heat. In addition, sociological factors such as income, housing status, age and social isolation may impact the degree to which individuals can manage extreme temperatures (Berry P and Schnitter R, 2022). Understanding how Canada's climate is changing is important for developing adaptive responses to these effects.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change use surface air temperature, among other variables, to assess long-term changes in climate. Surface air temperature is considered by the World Meteorological Organization - Global Climate Observing System as an Essential Climate Variable.
Related initiatives
The indicator contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is linked to Goal 13, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
Related indicators
The Extreme heat events indicator reports trends in the cumulative number of days per year and in the average number of degrees Celsius per year of extreme heat conditions across Canada.
The Precipitation change in Canada indicator presents annual, seasonal and regional precipitation departures (or anomalies).
The Sea ice in Canada indicator provides information on variability and trends in sea ice in Canada during the summer season.
The Snow cover indicator provides information on spring snow cover extent and annual snow cover duration in Canada.
The Greenhouse gas concentration indicator presents atmospheric concentrations as measured from sites in Canada and at a global scale for 2 greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide and methane.
Data sources and methods
Data sources and methods
Data sources
The Temperature change in Canada indicator is based on Environment and Climate Change Canada's gridded temperature departures, or anomalies, data (Canadian gridded homogenized surface air temperature), which in turn is based on the Canadian homogenized surface air temperature dataset for historical climate observations and on near real-time data in the national climate archives for the current year.
More information
The indicator is calculated using surface air temperature data collected in weather stations across Canada for the period 1948 to 2025.
The dataset contains daily data from 651 active sites. Each site reflects data from either a single weather station or combined data from multiple stations. Data from closely located stations were joined into single records to ensure observations for long periods.
The Fourth Generation of Homogenized Temperature datasets replaced the third generation datasets that were used in the previous versions of the Temperature change in Canada indicator.
This dataset was prepared for use in climate trend analysis in Canada. The list of stations was revised to include observations from a larger number of surface monitoring stations, particularly those collected at Reference Climate Stations and at some Canadian Aviation Weather Services stations. The procedures used to produce the Fourth Generation are described in the publication Canada’s fourth generation of homogenized surface air temperature and its trends for 1948-2023.
Methods
The seasonal and annual average temperature departures are computed at each observing station and for each season and year by subtracting the reference value (defined as the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period) from the relevant seasonal and annual values.
More information
The annual departure is the average of all monthly departures and the seasonal departure is the average of the monthly departures in the corresponding season. Seasons are defined as winter (December of the previous year, January and February of the current year), spring (March, April and May), summer (June, July and August) and autumn (September, October and November).
Temperature departures were computed for the 651 sites across Canada. A Kriging method was used to interpolate the daily and monthly temperature anomalies onto 10 km grids. Temperature departures were assumed to be uniform and equal for a given cell. Values for each grid cell were averaged together to produce the annual and seasonal time series of temperature departures representing the entire country. Values for grid boxes over large bodies of water are excluded. More information about the calculation method for annual average temperature departures can be found in the Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin documentation.
Non-parametric statistical tests were carried out on annual and seasonal average temperature departures data to detect the presence of a linear trend and, if present, to determine the orientation (positive or negative) and magnitude of the rate of change (slope). The standard Mann-Kendall trend test was used to detect trend presence and orientation, while the Sen's pairwise slope method was used to estimate the slope. A trend was reported when the Mann-Kendall test indicated the presence of a trend at the 95% confidence level.
For the regional temperature change trend, statistical tests were carried out on the temperature departure time series for each individual grid cell. From the obtained slope, the change in temperature was calculated over the period from 1948 to 2025: slope value (°C/year) × 78 years. For 99.9% of the cells, the Mann-Kendall test indicated the presence of a trend at the 95% confidence level. However, the trend results from all cells were displayed on the map.
Caveats and limitations
Breaks in the data can be a concern. To mitigate this, the Temperature change in Canada indicator uses homogenized and adjusted station data for temperature. Adjustments for data variations caused by changes in site exposure, location, instrumentation, observer, and observing procedures over the 78-year reporting period were performed on the dataset. Observations from nearby co-located stations are sometimes merged to produce longer time series.
The annual mean temperature trend over Canada reported in the indicator is higher than that reported in the 2026 Canada’s Changing Climate Report of 2.0°C for 1948 to 2023. This increase in the warming rate is due to 2024 being the warmest year on record in Canada and globally, and to the use of the new fourth generation dataset. Compared to the third generation dataset, the newer dataset provides improved spatial and temporal data coverage. This includes double the number of stations in northern Canada resulting from a new process for filling missing values. The increased number of stations in northern Canada (where observed warming is generally higher than in southern Canada) contributes the increased warming trend. The fourth generation dataset also corrects the cold bias in daily minimum temperatures for all 505 stations, compared to 96 corrected stations in the third generation dataset, also contributing to the increased trend. For more information, please consult Canada's fourth generation of homogenized surface air temperature and its trends for 1948-2023.
Resources
References
Berry P and Schnitter R (2022) Natural Hazards. In Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada. Retrieved on September 8, 2026.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026a) Canadian homogenized surface air temperature. Retrieved on August 12, 2026.
Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2026b) Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026. Government of Canada. (1448 pages). Retrieved on September 8, 2026.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (2026c) Canadian gridded homogenized surface air temperature. Retrieved on September 8, 2026.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (2025) Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin. Retrieved on August 12, 2026.
World Meteorological Organization (2026) State of the Global Climate 2025. Retrieved on August 12, 2026.
Wan H, Spassiani AC and Vincent LA (2025) Canada’s fourth generation of homogenized surface air temperature and its trends for 1948-2023. Atmosphere-Ocean.
Wang XL, Zwiers FW, Kirchmeier-Young M, Feng Y, Gillett N and Qian B (2026) Overview of past changes in climate. In Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026. Government of Canada. Retrieved on September 8, 2026.
Related information
Vincent LA, Hartwell MM, and Wang XL (2020) A third generation of homogenized temperature for trend analysis and monitoring changes in Canada's climate. Atmosphere-Ocean. 58:3, 173-191.
Vincent LA, Zhang X, Brown R, Feng Y, Mekis E, Milewska EJ, Wan H and Wang XL (2015) Observed trends in Canada's climate and influence of low frequency variability modes. Journal of Climate 28 (11):4545–4560.
Canada's top 10 weather stories of 2025
Alternative format
Download the alternative format of the Temperature change in Canada indicator (PDF; 915 kB)