2023 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Executive summary

Last year, the Government of Canada released the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy. The 2023 Progress Report on the Emissions Reduction Plan is the first progress report since and shows Canadians our progress on the path laid out in the Emissions Reduction Plan.

The 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan presented an ambitious and achievable roadmap, outlining a sector‑by‑sector path for Canada to reach 40% below 2005 national emissions levels by 2030, accompanied by scenario modelling that indicates priority areas for further action. It also set an interim objective of 20% below 2005 levels by 2026.

The Progress Report indicates that we are on a solid path toward our 2030 target. In fact, Canada is on pace to surpass our previous target of 30% below 2005 levels and is currently tracking to exceed our 2026 interim objective. With additional actions, and engagement from provinces, territories, municipalities, Indigenous communities, the financial sector, and the business sector, Canada can and will meet our emissions reduction target.

Assessing progress

The primary means through which Canada will assess achievement of its target is through emissions in the target year. This 2023 Progress Report includes several measures to assess progress toward Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, including:

• Emissions trajectory: The emissions trajectory often combines historical and projected emissions. Historical emissions describe the path we have taken. Emissions projections indicate where we think emissions will be in the future, based on the best available information. The emissions trajectory, including historical and projected emissions, illustrates the expected peak of emissions and the pattern of emissions change. In other words, it shows if we are headed in the right direction, and where we expect emissions to be in the target year.
• Emissions intensity: The ratio of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of gross domestic product. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity indicates how closely linked emissions are to economic growth. The decoupling of emissions from economic growth is an essential step toward achieving emissions reductions while maintaining economic prosperity.
• Implementation of measures: The assessment of implementation status for each Emissions Reduction Plan measure, using an assessment grid.

This Progress Report is presented in two parts: Part I provides an overview of the progress made toward Canada’s 2030 target and implementation of the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan. Part II provides a comprehensive accounting of federal actions and more in-depth consideration of the work across Canada.

Canada’s projected emissions trajectory

In the Emissions Reduction Plan Progress Report, which references the projections published in the 2023 Emissions Projections Report, Canada is expected to:

• Exceed the previous target of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• Exceed the 2026 interim objective of 20% below 2005 levels by 2026.
• Reach 36% below 2005 levels by 2030 if all modelled measures are fully implemented.
• Reach 40% below 2005 levels if additional actions (provided in this document) and new measures (not in this document) are implemented, as illustrated in the backcasting scenario.

When the Emissions Reduction Plan was released, potential measures with enough information to model were included. As we continue to finalize regulations and programs, staying the course on implementation is critical to ensuring we meet the 36% reductions below 2005 levels already identified. The changes in projections from the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan to the Fifth Biennial Report to the Emissions Reduction Plan Progress Report are a result of changes to the data and methodology of the model, such as changes in forecasts for supply and demand for natural gas, population and gross domestic product estimates, forecasts for industrial emissions intensities, and land use, land-use change, and forestry calculations.

This Progress Report lists a suite of additional actions that have already been identified but are not developed enough to be fully modelled. In the upcoming months these will be further refined to develop policies and programs that will close the gap by 2030.

Furthermore, of the 149 measures, 78% are actively being implemented. For regulations this means, at a minimum, draft regulations have been released. For funding programs, it means they are running and accepting proposals to support decarbonization. Only 9% are being explored or are under development.

As a result of the division of powers between the national and subnational governments, provinces and territories are responsible for many of the regulations and policies needed to meet net zero. This report illustrates the commitments made by each.

Whole-of-society approach

Five provinces and one territory (British Columbia, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Yukon) have legislated climate targets. Four provinces and one territory (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the Northwest Territories) have non-legislated climate targets. Saskatchewan is the only province without a climate target. Nunavut has no climate target, but the extremely small population, paired with the cold temperatures, provide additional challenges for this region.

Municipal governments have a role in managing buildings, transportation, water, waste, and land use, and therefore play an important role.

First Nations, Inuit, and Métis in Canada are at the forefront of efforts to address climate change and adapt to the impacts of our changing climate. Canada has committed to advancing an Indigenous Climate Leadership Agenda together with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis partners in recognition that Indigenous Peoples have long called for a renewed nation-to-nation, Inuit–Crown and Government-to-Government relationship, based on the recognition of rights, respect, cooperation, and partnership.

Many Indigenous leaders are taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, serving as guardians and stewards of ecosystems, managing water and air pollution, and improving how the natural environment is respected and protected. Indigenous leadership and knowledge are critical to achieving the foundational changes required to address climate change and support a healthy environment.

The private sector, including industry, banks, and institutional investors, can make decisions with far-reaching impacts. Sectors with a high potential to effect changes include transportation, buildings, and electricity. Their actions, such as supporting the adoption of zero-emission vehicles, heat pumps, and using the most efficient building codes, will help prepare Canadians for a low-carbon future and support the expansion of renewable energy to decarbonize Canada’s electrical grid.

Climate action is taking place nationwide.

Additional actions

The Government of Canada is pursuing a number of opportunities to help ensure that Canada remains firmly on track to meet our 2030 target and be net zero by 2050, including:

• Collaborate with provinces and territories—along with Indigenous partners and key stakeholders—to identify and accelerate the most promising clean-growth opportunities in each region; build clean energy projects; and, support workers in the global net-zero future.
• Continue to explore additional ways to provide businesses certainty regarding the carbon pollution pricing trajectory, including potential legislative approaches and other new measures, in conjunction with provinces and territories.
• Continue to explore how border carbon adjustments may fit into Canada’s broader climate strategy.
• Guided by Canada’s Carbon Management Strategy, identify policies and programs to support accelerated innovation and scale-up of negative emissions technologies to offset hard-to-abate emissions sources.
• As announced in the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, the Canada Growth Fund will be the principal federal entity issuing carbon contracts for difference—the Canada Growth Fund will allocate, on a priority basis, up to $7 billion of its current $15 billion in capital to issue all forms of contracts for difference and offtake agreements.
• Complete the implementation of the new clean economy investment tax credits.
• Continue to develop the Canada Green Buildings Strategy to support a net-zero emissions and climate‑resilient buildings sector.
• Work with the provinces and territories and other stakeholders to develop new code requirements to limit greenhouse gas emissions in new construction and for energy-efficient alterations to existing buildings.
• Explore the potential to update energy and greenhouse gas performance standards in federally funded homes and buildings programs.
• Explore further opportunities to minimize embodied emissions from the built environment.
• Engage with provinces, territories, and others to develop the design and implementation details of the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit.
• Building on the release of Powering Canada Forward: Building a Clean, Affordable and Reliable Electricity System for Every Region of Canada, Canada remains committed to releasing its first Clean Electricity Strategy in 2024.
• Explore opportunities to advance industrial decarbonization, including the potential to articulate a coordinated approach to accelerating industry’s adoption of clean technologies and fuels.
• Continue to support industry on the road to net zero and promote clean economic growth through the Strategic Innovation Fund and the Canada Growth Fund, providing significant funding and other forms of financial support to develop and adopt new low-carbon technologies and processes.
• Continue to implement regulations that are addressing emissions in the oil and gas sector, including carbon pricing, methane regulations, and the Clean Fuel Regulations.
• Develop and implement a national cap on emissions from the production of oil and gas.
• Provide financial supports for decarbonization activities in the oil and gas sector, including through the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Investment Tax Credit.
• Deliver on the commitment to permanently fund public transit.
• Consider opportunities stemming from engagement with biofuels’ stakeholders.
• Continue to develop and implement climate plans for marine, rail, and aviation sectors.
• Explore opportunities to accelerate the turnover of older, higher-emitting on-road vehicles.
• Explore opportunities to deploy charging and hydrogen stations for medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles.
• Explore opportunities to accelerate development of an off-road decarbonization strategy to transition to zero-emission equipment, machines, and zero-emission and/or low carbon fuels.
• Advance the development of a Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Blueprint.
• Examine options for the development of a new blueprint for a sustainable, net-zero transportation system by 2050 that takes an integrated transportation sector approach, ensures coordination across governments and stakeholders, and supports low-emitting modes where appropriate.
• Explore the potential to expand the Incentives for Zero Emission Vehicles Program to include used vehicles, building off the recent expansion of the program to enhance access to more incentives for car‑sharing fleets.
• Explore the potential to expand incentives for medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles to other specialty vehicles/off-road equipment used at transportation hubs (such as airports and ports).
• Develop the Sustainable Agriculture Strategy, which will help set a shared direction for collective action to reduce emissions and improve environmental performance in the sector over the long-term.
• Explore various approaches to help promote the sustainability of the agriculture sector, increase clean technology use in Canada, and address barriers of adoption/extension and knowledge transfer of emissions-reducing technologies on farms.
• Building on recent achievements to strengthen the Policy on Green Procurement with the completion of two new standards—the Standard on Embodied Carbon in Construction and the Standard on the Disclosure of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Setting of Reduction Targets—attention will focus on the effective implementation of these standards, working with companies bidding on federal contracts.
• Continue the implementation of the Government of Canada’s Greening Government Strategy to demonstrate leadership while exploring the potential for new measures that could contribute toward the Government of Canada’s targets related to net-zero emissions and climate-resilient operations. Short-term opportunities include: procurement of clean electricity, low-carbon fuels, and zero-emission vehicles, as well as climate risk assessment of operations.

About this report

In 2021, Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act which requires setting emissions targets every five years and regular reporting on progress. The 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) is split into two parts.

Part I includes:

Chapter 1: highlights the context that informs and influences the Government of Canada’s actions to address climate change and outlines how implementation of the 2030 ERP is assessed.

Chapter 2: summarizes the progress toward meeting Canada’s interim 2026 emissions objective and 2030 emissions target, provides an overview of measures implemented and in development, identifies opportunities for additional climate action to increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target, and describes the enabling measures that are helping to steer the economy to net zero.

Chapter 3: addresses the importance of collective action, recognizing that action is needed across all of society and by all orders of government, highlighting work with Indigenous partners to advance an Indigenous Climate Leadership Agenda, the advice of the Net‑Zero Advisory Body, and efforts underway with the international community.

Chapter 4: highlights next steps and upcoming milestones such as 2035 target setting and the 2025 Progress Report under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.

Part II includes:

Chapter 5: provides an overview of Canada’s emissions reporting, including an overview of international reporting commitments, summaries of the most recent national inventory report and emissions projections report, and an overview of the approach to continuous improvement for Canada’s emissions inventory and projections.

Chapter 6: provides comprehensive updates on the implementation status of 2030 ERP measures—federal measures and strategies as well as cooperative agreements and measures with provinces and territories.

Chapter 7: provides an overview of the work of provinces and territories, recognizing their important role in taking action on climate change.

Key definitions, acronyms, and references are provided in the annexes.

Together this comprises Canada’s 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, which fulfills the Government of Canada’s reporting requirements under Section 14 of the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act to prepare a progress report by no later than the end of 2023.

Unless explicitly stated otherwise, all emissions estimates given in Mt represent emissions of GHGs in megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂ eq).