Annex E: Data Details

Attrition can occur at any stage of a member’s career, affect­ing productivity and corporate memory, flexibility in career management, postings and deployments, and increased workload for remaining personnel which, in turn, impacts morale. The effects of attrition also include the CAF’s force expansion plans. When recruits depart early, the task of growing the Forces becomes more difficult. Force genera­tion throughout the ranks of the CAF depends on predict­able recruitment and promotion efforts to ensure the long term stability required to strengthen the CAF establish­ment. The data shows that members are leaving at two key points, in the first year of service and at the 20 to 25 year point. In fact, during the first 90 days of service 1 in 7 recruits leave the CAF, of which 85% do so voluntarily. Not surprisingly, the next key point, 20 to 25 YOS, marks the end of an Intermediate Engagement (IE20 or IE25) at which point a member is eligible for an unreduced pension. With this information in mind, and considering the down­sizing efforts of the 1990s and subsequent recruitment surge in the mid-2000s, we will be left with a large proportion of relatively inexperienced members to take the place of senior members who will be leaving in the coming years.

Using the years of service as a starting point to investigate attrition, additional analysis reveals that there is a differ­ence between men and women and when they leave the service. Recent data indicates that for those with 0-19 years of service, attrition rates are generally similar between men and women, with women having a slightly lower rate of attrition. However, from 20 years onward, they are noticeably higher for women. This identifies an area for deeper analysis into the reasons why women are leaving, followed by subsequent appropriate action planning for targeted retention. On the other end of the Years of Service spectrum, there are recruits. While there is some expect­ation that attrition will be higher in recruits, the CAF must look into this further to determine if there are specific areas for improvement to reduce early attrition to ensure there are enough recruits at the right stages to replace members who retire. Common reasons for attri­tion here are family reasons, injuries, not feeling suited for CAF, wrong choice of occupation, and return to school/opportunities. Research has also indicated areas where better communication is needed, such as informa­tion on training wait times, the impact on family life, employment and task opportunities, etc. Additional analy­sis is currently being conducted through Project Horizon – a CMP-driven initiative to identify factors predictive of functional retention and early attrition. 

Figure 1: Rates of Attrition – YOS^{Footnote 29}.

Other data highlights areas for further investigation for targeted retention efforts. The CAF aims to have a 25.1%, 3.5%, and 11% representation of women, Indigenous Peoples, and visible minority groups, respectively, by 2026. Overall, representation of these designated groups remains lower than desired, with current numbers arriv­ing at 16.3%, 2.8%, and 9.6%, for women, Indigenous Peoples, and visible minorities in the Reg Force and P Res together. While not a designated group, representa­tion of PWD within the CAF (Reg Force and P Res together) is 1.1%.^{Footnote 30}There is no rate of attrition for LGBTQ2+ members.

Figure 2: Officers Recruits vs. Releases by Designated Group.^{Footnote 31}

Figure 3: NCM Recruits vs. Releases by Designated Group.^{Footnote 32}

Unplanned attrition can have devastating impacts on key capabilities. The CAF is composed of a large number of highly specialized members who often operate in very small communities of practice. Spikes in attrition, combined with the challenge of recruiting or significant training requirements can create critical vulnerabilities in a short period of time. This impact is seen in occupations such as Signal Operator (Sig Op), Signal Technician (Sig Tech), Line Technician (Line Tech), and Information Systems Technician (IS Tech, formerly Army Communication and Info Systems Specialist or ACISS) and some of the RCN occupations such as Naval Electronic Sensor Operator (NES OP), Naval Combat Information Operator (NCI OP), and Naval Communicator (NAV COMM) which are well below aver­age strength of other occupations and which suffer signifi­cantly higher attrition than many other occupations.

In the past, some targeted retention efforts have been applied to occupations demonstrating particular difficulty in retaining members (e.g.,pilots). Recent data demon­strates that a number of occupations continue to be stressed in terms of not meeting minimum staffing levels of 90%, some of which do have attrition rates lower than the CAF average overall. These include occupations such as Signals Officers, Medical Technicians, and, of course, ACISS. Because of these lower staffing levels, even a small increase in attrition can have considerable impact. A table of occu­pations historically lower than 90% minimum staffing is on the following page.

An essential task going forward is the intersectional analysis of attrition data. What has been presented are some over­arching demographic analyses and do not represent the only views to be taken on the data available. The CAF is fortunate to have a plethora of data to assess and includes other divers­ity aspects – marital status, age, gender identity, first official language, rank, etc. which should be taken into account. Considering different slices of occupations and demograph­ics at different levels will uncover the areas where retention efforts will result in the most impactful and efficient results. For example, there is difficulty recruiting a number of logis­tical occupations and they have some of the highest attrition rates amongst Senior Non-Commissioned Officers. This particular occupation grouping is 42% women. As we already know, there is a distinct increase in attrition in women in senior roles at the 20-year mark across the CAF – a point to take note of as there are already fewer women in senior positions across the CAF. This demographic lens taken at the occupation level highlights the impact of demo­graphic attrition that appears minimal in the context of the overall CAF numbers. Further analysis may indicate that a specific retention activity for women in the CAF, or perhaps for those within the occupation group, is needed in order to address those particular concerns.

Attrition in the CAF – Why?

Once areas experiencing unhealthy attrition are identified, it is critical to understand why CAF members are leaving while still able to serve. At an initial glance of attrition data, there are two clear broad reasons for attrition: those which are voluntary and those which are medical. Of medical releases, women are more likely to be medically released than men (~2.6% vs. ~1.8%, respectively). Further, medical attri­tion for women has been higher on an annual basis (Serré & Straver, 2018).

At this broad level, further investigation is warranted to identify why there is this gender difference in medical leave and how best to address it – for example, there is evidence that while mental health releases between men and women are similar, depression is higher for women and there is a difference between men and women in musculoskeletal issues, with 32% of women reporting a repetitive strain issue, vs. 28% of men. Qualitative evidence indicates issues with ill-fitting uniforms and equipment for women, as well as a general lack of awareness and sensitivity regarding repro­ductive health, maternity, and the impact of training and exercises on the female body. Other areas of interest may aid our members who identify as PWD – while some may be clear cases wherein they are unable to continue service, fur­ther analysis may identify areas in which PWD can benefit from additional or different supports and still productively serve in the CAF. Further investigation in this area can uncover changes needed to better support our members.

Analysis into the voluntary attrition is conducted by Director General Military Personnel Research and Analysis (DGMPRA) via two key surveys, the Retention Survey and the Exit Survey. The Retention Survey, provided to a sample of Reg Force members, is conducted every 2-3 years and evaluates member perceptions of work and organizational factors that are related to retention. To augment the results of these surveys and to address concerns by specific occupa­tions, locations, or units, focused studies using mixed meth­ods of focus groups and shorter surveys are also conducted. The Exit Survey is offered to members who are releasing, voluntarily and when they decline an offer for a new Terms of Service, to evaluate the reasons why members voluntarily leave the CAF.^{Footnote 33} The data and analyses from these studies contain a wealth of information and have the potential to provide more useful insights. However, they need to be strengthened to ensure that we are collecting enough infor­mation regularly to identify specific issues of concern for all members, as well as be able to effectively conduct inter­sectional analysis, as appropriate

Table 3: Sample of stressed occupations consistently under minimum staffing levels for Reg Force

Attrition Rate vs. Staffing Level of Stressed Occupations

DGMPRA has been surveying CAF members about reten­tion and attrition issues for decades and the reasons for dissatisfaction have largely remained the same.^{Footnote 34} In the most recent analysis of CAF Exit Survey data, voluntarily releasing members’ most common reasons for leaving were job dis­satisfaction, geographical instability, lack of career progres­sion, undesirable postings, and dissatisfaction with senior leadership as indicated in Figure 4 (Bremner, Beadman, &  Budgell, 2017).^{Footnote 35} Those members surveyed in the 2019 CAF Retention Survey (see Figure 5) were asked if they planned to leave in the next three years, and if so, why they were thinking about leaving the CAF. Similar to the Exit Survey, the top responses included job dissatisfaction, impact on spouse/partner, occupation dissatisfaction, lack of geographic stability, and a lack of meaningful, satisfying, challenging work (Yeung, Musolino, & Eren, 2020).

Figure 4: 2013-2017 CAF Exit Survey (voluntarily releasing members)

Figure 5: 2019 CAF Retention Survey (currently serving members)

The research identifies numerous reasons why CAF mem­bers decide to leave voluntarily, but there are some reasons that stand out consistently over time for a large proportion of those who had been considering leaving or who had actually left:

• job dissatisfaction;
• impact of military lifestyle on spouses/children;
• career/occupation dissatisfaction, lack of career progression; and
• dissatisfaction with senior leadership. 

The analysis on the Retention Survey incorporates descrip­tive analysis of retention information by gender, Year of Service, rank, and age groups, amongst other factors, providing information where member reports were least and most favourable within each group. Interestingly, the survey analysis on gender indicates that women tend to have higher levels of satisfaction with some training, the effects of posting on family, pay and benefits, and organ­izational leadership (Yeung, Musolino, & Eren, 2020). However, the qualitative analysis, which analyzes open-ended responses to the question “list and discuss the aspects a member is most dissatisfied with,” reflects addi­tional insight. Here, the seven most common dissatisfiers  (thematically) include advancement/promotion/PER, training and development, leadership, postings, workload and demands, organizational inefficiency, and lack of transparency/fairness related to occupation. Additional analysis indicates that, with the exception of leadership and postings, some^{Footnote 36} women cited each of the dissatisfiers more often than men (Cheng, Myers, Musolino, Yeung, & Eren, 2020).

The Reserve Force^{Footnote 37}

The P Res experiences an attrition rate almost double that of the Reg Force – an estimated 15% vs. 7-8%. Of course, this attrition is driven by different factors than those of the Reg Force – for example, a considerable number of army reservists are students who may leave the reserves for full-time work, or even to transfer to the Reg Force.

Within the P Res, increases in attrition are found particu­larly after the initial year of service, similar to Reg Force. However, unlike the Reg Force, we do not see the overall increase in attrition at the 20 to 25 years of service.^{Footnote 38} Rather, we see that attrition rates slightly increase after 20 years of service for women, ^{Footnote 39} and 27 years of service for men. (See Figure 6)

Figure 6: P Res attrition rates and population distribution: women vs. men (all release reasons).^{Footnote 40}

Recently, the 2019 P Res Force Retention Survey was conducted.

^{Footnote 41}The Primary Reserve Survey is administered to a sample of P Res members and provides some demo­graphic estimates that should be considered when devel­oping retention actions for Reserve members. For example, it is estimated that 57.7% of Res members are working or attending school and that 8.5% are both working and attending school. This is, of course, in stark contrast with Reg Force, and interesting to note. While the CAF com­petes with other employers, in the Res Force many are already with another employer and may have other obli­gations and/or opportunities more readily available than a Reg Force member who is only beginning to consider leaving. Similar to the Reg Force Retention Survey, the P Res Retention Survey also identifies gender, Indigenous Peoples, and visible minorities within its demographics and reports on the areas of satisfaction or dissatisfaction by gender and Employment Equity Group (EEG). There were few differences between genders, or by EEG status. Those differences that were noted were positive, with women being more satisfied with the availability and qual­ity of equipment and resources, and EEG members iden­tify more strongly with the CAF and being more satisfied with compensation, benefits, and the assignment of deployment opportunities.

Overall, the reasons for intending to leave the P Res appear to have some similarities to those of the Reg Force. Family-related concerns were the most commonly cited reason for potentially leaving the P Res. The other top noted reasons included lack of opportunities, dissatisfaction with the job, civilian obligations, and dissatisfaction with pay and benefits (See Figure 7).

Limited information is available for the COATS, Rangers, and Supplementary Reserve. While the P Res conducts a retention survey, and aims to continue to do this more regularly, no such survey was found for the Rangers or Supplementary Reserve. Retention Survey findings were available for the COATS from the 2012 COATS Survey but differed from that administered to the Regular and P Res Forces, in that they were not asked to identify dis­satisfiers with working with the CAF. The majority of COATS personnel planned to continue as a Cadet Instructors Cadre (CIC) officer for six or more years, and work with their training unit for 4 or more years. Personnel were asked to select the top three reasons that have had a significant influence on their intention to leave COATS. The top five reasons included: conflicts between family and personal life (29.4%), few opportunities in COATS (21.4%), conflicts with their civilian job (19.8%), dissatisfaction with personal administration (14.9%), and personal conflict(s) with the unit member(s) or leadership (13%). While there is disaggregation by gender, no other disaggregation by underrepresented group was available. Further, there were few noted differences between male and female members, and in cases where there were dif­ferences, female COATS members had more positive perceptions than male members. 

Outside of civilian obligations, there are broad similarities between the P Res and Reg Force in terms of reasons for leaving the CAF. Both components identified dissatisfac­tion with promotion, recognition, and training. However, the acknowledgement of these similarities must not over­shadow that the retention activities employed in the Reg Force may not be appropriate for those in the Res Force – the details that underlie these broad categories of  dissatisfiers are important. For example, in terms of lack of opportunities, the Res Force survey notes that there is dissatisfaction with a lack of deployment opportunities, whereas lack of geographic stability was noted as a dis­satisfier within the Reg Force. While broad changes must be considered to better incorporate the two components, the distinction between targeted retention efforts for each should acknowledge the demographic differences and the particular influencing factors of retention as they apply to each component. Further, it would benefit the CAF to gather, and analyze more regularly, additional data and insights on other elements of the Res Force to obtain a more comprehensive picture of retention issues. In doing so, we will be better able to address the retention issues within each component appropriately, so that the organ­ization can truly present itself as One Force.

Figure 7: Reasons for Leaving the P Res