Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections – 2023

Executive summary

ES.1 Context

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act became law in June 2021. This Act enshrines in legislation the Government of Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and provides a framework of accountability and transparency to deliver on this commitment, building on significant action over a number of years.

In March 2022, the Government of Canada released Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (2030 ERP), the first climate plan under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. The 2030 ERP was designed to be evergreen—a comprehensive roadmap that reflects levels of ambition to guide emissions reduction efforts in each sector. The 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP is the first progress report on the 2030 ERP under the Act. As required by the Act, it will provide an update on progress towards Canada’s GHG emissions reduction target of 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and the interim emissions reduction objective of 20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2026. It will also provide a measure-by-measure update on the implementation status of federal strategies and measures and key cooperative agreements with provinces and territories.

In the 2030 ERP, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) made the following commitment:

“To both maximize transparency and address the inherent uncertainties in all modelling processes, ECCC will convene an expert-led process to provide independent advice in time for the 2023 Progress Report, ensuring a robust and reliable modelling regime to inform the basis of future ERPs.”

ECCC held a two-phase process to fulfill this commitment. In Phase 1, ECCC commissioned an initial consultation process seeking input on objectives, scope, and key milestones for a formal consultation process, which led to the development of a modelling improvement Action Plan. In Phase 2, ECCC commissioned a second round of expanded consultation on the proposed Action Plan, which led to a final version of the Action Plan being prepared. The final Action Plan (Annex 8) includes both measures to be implemented in time for the publication of the 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP as well as medium to longer term improvements.

In September 2023 ECCC held the Net Zero Workshop recommended in the Phase 2 report. The workshop included roughly 70 participants including academics and government officials from the United States, Europe, and Canada.

Section 1.2 discusses ECCC’s continuous improvement process in more detail.

ES.2 Greenhouse gas emissions projections

ECCC updates Canada's GHG emissions projections annually, reflecting the latest historical data and updated future economic and energy market assumptions. As such, projections fluctuate over time.

Historical emissions are published annually in ECCC’s National Inventory Report (NIR). The most recent NIR emissions data for 2021 was published in April 2023 in Canada's National Inventory Report 1990–2021: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada 2023 (NIR2023)^{Footnote 1} .

Canada's GHG and air pollutant emissions projections are derived using the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada (E3MC)^{Footnote 2} , which combines a detailed bottom-up simulation model with a top-down macroeconomic model. E3MC is internationally peer reviewed and incorporates external data. Projections are developed in line with generally recognized practices and according to guidelines from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

This report presents Canada's GHG and air pollutant emissions projections for years 2026, 2030 and 2035. Where applicable, historical emissions for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2021 (the most recent year for which historical emissions are available) are also shown^{Footnote 3} . Where indicated, full time series covering the period from 2005 to 2035 are available through Canada’s open data portal. In addition, interactive data visualizations for a selection of data tables that are available on open data are also available through Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections website. This is consistent with the 2030 ERP commitment to enhance transparency.

As was the case with the release of Canada's 2030 ERP, this report presents projections using a combination of two modelling approaches – a "bottom-up" approach (represented by the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenario), and a backcasting approach.

• The Reference Case scenario includes federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of August 2023 and assume no further government action.
• The Additional Measures Scenario includes all federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures from the Reference Case as well as those that have been announced but have not been fully implemented.
• The Backcasting Scenario is an illustrative scenario which is based on all policies and measures included in the Additional Measures Scenario and is calibrated to achieve the 2030 target of a 40 per cent reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2005 levels. The results from the Backcasting Scenario should not be construed as signaling policy intentions, but rather an illustration of what the modelling framework suggests are economically efficient opportunities to reach pre-determined emission reductions.

In 2021, the last year for which historical data was available, Canada's emissions were 670 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂ eq). When considering the accounting contribution of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, Canada's emissions were 637 Mt (or 13 per cent below 2005).

Under the Reference Case, GHG emissions are projected to decline to 592 Mt in 2030. Including the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, emissions in 2030 under the Reference Case are projected to be 560 Mt (23 per cent below 2005). Post-2030, the Reference Case sees emissions continue to decline, to reach a level of 541 Mt in 2035, including the LULUCF sector accounting contribution.

Under the Additional Measures Scenario, in 2030 emissions decline to 467 Mt, including contributions from LULUCF, Nature-based climate solutions (NBCS), and Agriculture Measures and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). This is 24 Mt below the 2030 projections from the "With Additional Measures" (WAM) projections released in December 2022 in Canada's Eight National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (NC8/BR5). Post-2030, the Additional Measures Scenario sees emissions continuing to decline, reaching 423 Mt in 2035.

Figure ES.1: Total Canadian GHG emissions (Mt CO₂ eq), including LULUCF accounting contribution, current and previous projections (scenarios from 2022 and 2023 projections), 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from NIR2022 and NIR2023. Access more data.
Ref23: Current Reference Case.
ERPPR23: Current Additional Measures Scenario, as prepared for the 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP. Equivalent to AM23 in other tables and figures.
Ref22: With Measures Scenario (equivalent to Reference Case) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.
AM22: With Additional Measures Scenario (equivalent to Additional Measures Scenario) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.

ES.3 Air pollutant emissions projections

Air quality is important and influences the daily life of all Canadians. It affects not only human health, but also the delicate balance of the natural environment, the integrity of buildings and infrastructure, crop production, and the overall state of the economy. Projections of air pollutant emissions play a pivotal role in guiding both domestic and international efforts aimed at improving air quality.

Canada actively collaborates with other nations to confront the challenges of transboundary air pollution, recognizing its substantial impact on Canadian air quality. In particular, Canada is a signatory to the Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement (AQA) and actively participates in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP or Air Convention).

The Gothenburg Protocol is the latest and most active among the eight protocols operating within the Air Convention. The Protocol was initially signed by Canada in December 1999 and came into force internationally in May 2005 to address pollutants responsible for acidification, eutrophication, and ground-level ozone. It was updated in May 2012 to include particulate matter (PM) and new commitments for 2020. Canada ratified the Gothenburg Protocol and its amendments in November 2017, and the Protocol entered into force in October 2019. Canada's commitments under the Gothenburg Protocol include:

• Emissions ceilings of 1 450 kt for sulphur dioxide (SO₂), 2 250 kt for nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and 2 100 kt for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to be achieved by 2010 and maintained to 2020.
• Indicative emission reduction commitments expressed as a percentage reduction from the base year of 2005 of 55 per cent for SO₂, 35 per cent for NO_x, 20 per cent for VOCs and 25 per cent for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)^{Footnote 4} , to be met by 2020 and maintained.
• Limiting emissions in specific sectors using Canadian air pollution emission reduction measures (included in the Protocol annexes).

The Canada-U.S. AQA demonstrates remarkable success in upholding commitments to reduce emissions of SO₂ , NO_x and VOCs, with both nations consistently meeting these targets for an extended period. Both the Gothenburg Protocol and the AQA are currently undergoing a thorough review and may be updated in the future.

Canada also collaborates with Arctic countries under the Arctic Council to reduce emissions of black carbon, an air pollutant known for its significant climate warming properties and serious impacts on human health. Canada and other Arctic States have committed to an aspirational goal to reduce black carbon emissions by 25 to 33 per cent below 2013 levels by 2025.

Based on historical emissions data, Canada's current emission reduction commitments under the Gothenburg Protocol set emissions ceilings of 945 kt for SO₂ , 1 473 kt for NO_x, 1 831 kt for VOCs, and 217 kt for non-open-source PM_2.5 to be met by 2020 and maintained. Similarly, Canada's commitments under the Arctic Council require the country to reduce its black carbon emissions to below 27.8 kt (low commitment - 25% reduction) or 24.8 kt (high commitment - 33% reduction) by 2025. Projections from both the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenario indicate that Canada is expected to consistently meet all of its reduction targets under the Gothenburg Protocol and the Arctic Council commitments.

Table ES.1: Air pollutant emissions by pollutant, excluding other sources (kt, except for mercury), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Nitrogen Oxides	2 266	1 896	1 546	1 321	1 069	986	955	1 026	896	810
Sulphur Oxides	2 099	1 295	1 065	641	548	436	441	539	399	402
Volatile Organic Compounds	2 289	1 837	1 711	1 400	1 322	1 358	1 413	1 332	1 357	1 383
Total Particulate MatterFootnote 5
(excl. Open Sources)	669	620	575	702	697	692	702	706	697	710
(incl. Open Sources)	19 351	23 218	27 268	26 702	29 483	31 154	33 491	30 951	32 843	35 193
PM10Footnote 6
(excl. Open Sources)	405	351	325	378	365	357	354	366	355	351
(incl. Open Sources)	6 200	7 252	8 424	8 240	9 018	9 481	10 135	9 451	9 977	10 633
PM2.5Footnote 7
(excl. Open Sources)	289	236	216	203	186	176	169	184	172	164
(incl. Open Sources)	1 241	1 346	1 515	1 463	1 557	1 607	1 686	1 635	1 695	1 773
Carbon Monoxide	8 916	6 745	5 345	4 596	4 614	4 492	4 428	4 597	4 259	3 827
Mercury (Kilograms)	7 935	5 324	3 562	3 194	3 270	3 074	3 112	3 283	2 992	3 031
Ammonia	489	449	468	493	603	644	705	605	642	703
Black Carbon	n.a.	n.a.	33.7	26.0	22.2	20.1	19.1	21.5	18.7	16.9

Note: Historical emissions data come from the Air Pollutant Emissions Inventory (APEI 2023) and Canada's Black Carbon Inventory Report 2023. Access more data.
Other sources include emissions from domestic and international air transportation at cruise speed, and international marine emissions.

Acknowledgements

The Analysis and Modelling Division (AMD) of Environment and Climate Change Canada wishes to acknowledge the individuals and organisations that contributed to the Canada's Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections Report 2023. Although the list of all organisations and individuals who provided technical support is too long to include here, the Division would like to highlight the contributions of the following authors and reviewers.

Overall coordination of Canada's Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections Report 2023 was led by Alexandre Dumas with Glasha Obrekht providing overall direction, and with support from Brock Batey, Audrey Bernard, Noah Conrad, Gavin Cook, Thomas Dandres, Doruk Kaymak, Victor Keller, Richard Laferrière, Michelle Lasota, Matthew Lewis, Howard Park, Bryn Parsons, Serena Rawn, Frédéric Roy-Vigneault, Benjamin Sas Trakinsky, John St- Laurent O'Connor, Muhammad-Shahid Siddiqui, Timothy Timothy, Jocelyn Tong, Kevin Palmer-Wilson, Robert Sand Ty, Marshal Wang, Robin White, and Robert Xu. Development of the projections also benefited from support from Systematic Solutions, Inc.

AMD would also like to acknowledge the efforts of our federal colleagues, without their contributions, the development of the projections would not be possible. At Environment and Climate Change Canada, special thanks go to staff of the Pollutant Inventories and Reporting Division (historical greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions data) and the Science and Technology Branch (HFCs, LULUCF). The Division also wishes to thank staff from the following departments for providing data and support: Natural Resources Canada (historical energy use, mining data, LULUCF sector), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (agriculture emissions, LULUCF sector), Transport Canada (zero emission vehicle forecast), Statistics Canada (historical energy supply and demand data, macroeconomic data), Finance Canada (macroeconomic forecast), and the Canada Energy Regulator (oil and gas production and wholesale prices).

1 Context

Canada's 2023 Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections provide projected greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions through to 2035 in support of domestic and international reporting requirements.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) started publishing GHG emissions projections annually in 2011 as part of either:

• Federal climate plans (Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change in 2015, Canada's Strengthened Climate Plan in December 2020, Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan in March 2022).
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) biennial submissions (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022).
• Standalone domestic reports (2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018).

Canada has reported on its GHG emissions projections to the UNFCCC through two different reports: a National Communication, which is prepared every four years (with the last being submitted in 2022); and a Biennial Report, which is prepared every two years (with the last also being submitted in 2022). Starting in 2024, Biennial Reports will be replaced by Biennial Transparency reports, in accordance with the Enhanced Transparency Framework established under the Paris Agreement. Biennial Transparency Reports are intended to streamline reporting and review requirements. The new framework includes some technical changes to existing reporting guidelines but is not expected to require significantly more effort for Annex 1 countries such as Canada.

The analysis in this report is based on scenarios of emissions projections using the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada (E3MC)^{Footnote 8} . The model incorporates the most up-to-date statistics on GHG and air pollutant emissions and energy available at the time that the technical modelling was completed (Fall 2023).

Provincial, territorial, and federal government departments were consulted during the development of the projections and were invited to provide their input by August 2023. The majority of data and assumptions used for the modelled emissions scenarios have been subject to extensive consultations.

As with all projections, the estimates in this report should be seen as representative of possible outcomes that will, in the end, depend on economic, social and other factors, including future government policies.

1.1 Canada's 2030 Emissions Reductions Plan

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act became law in June 2021. This Act enshrines in legislation the Government of Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and provides a framework of accountability and transparency to deliver on this commitment, building on significant action over a number of years. The Act also establishes a legally binding process to set five-year national emissions-reduction targets as well as develop emissions-reduction plans to achieve each target. Under the Act, Canada’s legislated 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target is set as Canada’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2030 under the UNFCCC, which is a reduction of 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels.

In March 2022, the Government of Canada released Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (2030 ERP), the first climate plan under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. During the development of the 2030 ERP, more than 30,000 Canadians—young people, workers, Indigenous Peoples, business owners, and more—made submissions. Their key message to the Government of Canada was that climate action must go hand in hand with keeping life affordable for Canadians and creating good jobs. The 2030 ERP was designed to be evergreen—a comprehensive roadmap that reflects levels of ambition to guide emissions reduction efforts in each sector. As governments, businesses, non-profits, and communities across the country work together to reach these targets, the plan can accommodate and respond to new opportunities and changing conditions.

The 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP will be the first progress report on the 2030 ERP under the Act. As required by the Act, it will provide an update on progress towards Canada’s GHG emissions reduction target of 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and the interim emissions reduction objective of 20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2026. It will also provide a measure-by-measure update on the implementation status of federal strategies and measures and key cooperative agreements with provinces and territories. Canada’s approach to climate planning and reporting is centred on transparency and accountability, recognizing the imperative to take action on climate change through efforts that span the whole of society and the economy.

1.2 Continuous improvement

Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan included the following commitment:

“To both maximize transparency and address the inherent uncertainties in all modelling processes, ECCC will convene an expert-led process to provide independent advice in time for the 2023 Progress Report, ensuring a robust and reliable modelling regime to inform the basis of future ERPs.”

Section 1.2.1 describes the review process that took place to fulfill this commitment and Section 1.2.2 discusses the Net-Zero Modelling Workshop which ECCC held in September 2023.

1.2.1 Independent modelling review

In Phase 1 of the modelling review, ECCC commissioned Dr. Paul Boothe and his associates Mike Beale and Chris Frankel to lead an initial consultation process seeking input on objectives, scope, and key milestones for a formal consultation process. This initial phase took place in October and November 2022. From the recommendations put forward in the resulting report, ECCC developed a modelling improvement Action Plan that contains both measures to be implemented by the end of 2023 as well as medium to longer-term improvements.

In Phase 2, ECCC commissioned Mike Beale to facilitate a second round of expanded consultation, which took place in April and May 2023, on the proposed Action Plan and the report produced following the first phase. This consultation process informed the final report and final version of the Action Plan.

Phase 1 consultations highlighted that experts generally hold the view that ECCC’s current modelling framework is strong and that there is broad support and enthusiasm for an external review to advise on further enhancement. In addition, discussions highlighted:

• A need for mechanisms to improve transparency and for peer review.
• The recognition of policy linkages, including greater use of modelling as a tool for policy design.
• The importance of adequate modelling capacity to respond to increased demands.
• The need for analyzing long-term 2050 trajectories to net zero, and “what-if” scenarios.

Collectively, experts indicated that these themes were fundamental to the credibility and accountability of the modelling that supports the government’s climate policy measures.

Following the consultation phase, Dr. Boothe and colleagues identified the following themes to be explored in Phase 2:

• Transparency
• Engagement
• Modelling processes
• Net zero 2050 pathways and scenarios
• Capacity / resources

Feedback from Phase 2 interviews indicated that ECCC’s modelling team is recognized as leaders in the field and the suite of models is generally well-regarded, although there were some concerns about the transparency and age of ENERGY2020^{Footnote 9} . The draft Action Plan from Phase 1 was seen as ambitious, but interviewees mentioned that improvements were needed in terms of speed and depth of the proposed actions. Interviewees also called for greater transparency in underlying assumptions and impacts of individual policies to enable external modellers to replicate ECCC’s results. Interviewees suggested using more sensitivity and probabilistic analysis to address uncertainties. Finally, there was broad interest in a workshop on net zero modelling.

Additionally, interviewees unanimously support establishing a Canadian version of the Stanford Energy Modelling Forum (EMF). The EMF was established at Stanford University in 1976 to bring together leading experts and decision makers from government, industry, universities, and other research organisations to study important energy and environmental issues. For each study, the Forum organizes a working group to develop the study design, analyze and compare each model’s results and discuss key conclusions. The EMF seeks to improve the use of energy and environmental policy models for making important corporate and government decisions by:

• Harnessing the collective capabilities of multiple models to improve the understanding of important energy and associated environmental problems.
• Explaining the strengths and limitations of competing approaches to the problem.
• Providing guidance for future research efforts.

Below is a summary of the recommendations (covering four themes) which the Phase 2 Independent Modeling Review Report provided to ECCC.

• Regarding transparency, ECCC should:
  • Publish detailed documentation on its various models on its webpage by December 2023.
  • Seek to include model code for Energy2020 with the publication of full model documentation by December 2023.
  • Release full details of modelling assumptions and approaches by the publication of the 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP.
• Regarding the modelling process, ECCC should:
  • Provide greater detail on the emissions and economic impacts of individual policies and measures.
  • Give greater recognition to uncertainties underlying assumptions and use more sensitivity analysis.
  • Consider enhancing the suite of models and modelling approaches to better model Net-Zero scenarios and host a workshop of modelling experts on Net-Zero.
• Regarding engagement, ECCC should work with internal and external partners to establish a Canadian version of the Stanford Energy Modelling Forum.
• Regarding peer review, ECCC should establish a roster of external modellers to review ECCC’s modelling before publishing a set of projections, going beyond existing peer review practices.

Following the publication of the Phase 2 report and informed by the consultations and recommendations found within, ECCC revised its Action Plan. The Action Plan is organized into items for immediate action (i.e., to be implemented this year) and medium to longer-term enhancements. To date ECCC has taken the following actions to address the Action Plan (full details are available in Annex 8).

• Regarding transparency:
  • Starting with this report, ECCC is releasing more details behind its modelling assumptions, making its model documentation more accessible to interested parties, releasing more data through its open data portal, and developing data visualizations tools which are accessible through Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections website.
  • In the future, ECCC will continue to increase the quantity of modelling results that are made available and will work to develop a methodology to allow for the reporting of the impacts of individual measures.
• Regarding stakeholder engagement:
  • In collaboration with the Energy Modelling Hub (EMH), ECCC organized a Net Zero Modelling workshop that was held on September 20-21, 2023. A report summarizing the workshop is available online.
  • ECCC is actively participating in other activities of the EMH, including the Data Committee and the Platform Committee.
  • ECCC is currently exploring options to establish a Canadian Environment and Economy Modelling Forum.
  • ECCC is currently exploring options for a new collaboration platform with the goal of improving the digital workspace used for communicating with stakeholders through the consultations process.
• Regarding the modelling process:
  • Efforts are currently underway to translate the ENERGY2020 model to the Julia programming language and to move the ENERGY2020 modelling platform from standalone computers to cloud computing.
  • Interactive visualizations are now available through Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections website.
  • A new macro-economic model has been developed and is being run in parallel with the current structure to ensure comparability prior to full transition to the new model.
• Regarding net-zero analysis:
  • ECCC submitted its Long-term Strategy to the UNFCCC in October 2022.
  • ECCC is currently exploring options to enhance its suite of models dedicated to net-zero analysis, including developing a forward-looking computable general equilibrium model for a more detailed analysis of the energy and economic transition to achieve net-zero and a provincial-territorial version of the Global Change Analysis Modelling.
  • ECCC is currently exploring options to model alternative net-zero pathways.

1.2.2 Net-Zero Modelling Workshop

In September 2023, ECCC held the Net-Zero Modelling Workshop recommended in the Phase 2 report. The workshop included roughly 70 participants including academics and government officials from the United States, Europe, and Canada. The discussions focused on:

• How models supported the development of Canada’s Long-Term Strategy.
• ECCC's long-term modelling suite, focusing on the model structures, strengths and weaknesses, and why they were used to support the Long-Term Strategy analysis.
• Multi-model analysis along with other tools and approaches necessary for successful net-zero modelling.
• Open-source modelling, including the relevant issues surrounding making model code, data, and documentation public.

The discussions led to the following key takeaways:

• There was significant support for a multi-model comparison exercise that would further enhance the Canadian modelling ecosystem based partly on the existing U.S. approach.
• While ECCC models are “good” and “robust”, there is a need for greater transparency in terms of publishing more model information. However, at the same time there was recognition that there are challenges with making the models open source, as models are complex and would require significant resources for training for open-source users.
• ECCC should continue its focus on using a suite of models as different models can bring different perspectives. At the same time, to support industrial/sectoral transformation, ECCC should continue to benefit from the work of more detailed engineering/process models.
• ECCC models should continue to be enhanced with the focus on increasing sector disaggregation and expanding the availability of technologies represented in the models. This would improve model resolution which should, in turn, lead to more accurate forecasts.
• ECCC should continue to develop a forward-looking computable general equilibrium model for a more detailed analysis of the energy and economic transition required to achieve net-zero in order to incorporate forward-looking decision making that is not in the current suite of models.

2 Greenhouse gas emissions projections

ECCC updates Canada’s GHG emissions projections annually, reflecting the latest historical data and up-to-date future economic and energy market assumptions. As such, projections fluctuate over time because of changes in these data and assumptions. A discussion of major changes to these underlying assumptions is presented in Annex 4.

Actual historical emissions are published annually in ECCC’s National Inventory Report (NIR). The most recent NIR emissions data for 2021 was published in April 2023 in Canada’s National Inventory Report 1990–2021: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada 2023 (NIR2023)^{Footnote 10} .

Canada’s GHG and air pollutant emissions projections are derived using the E3MC model, which combines a detailed bottom-up simulation with a top-down macroeconomic model. E3MC is internationally peer reviewed and incorporates external data from consistent sources. In E3MC, energy data is allocated to individual sub-sectors based on data from Statistics Canada, Natural Resources Canada’s Office of Energy Efficiency, Canada’s GHG Reporting Program, the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre (CEEDC) and various oil sands reports. These sub-sectors are then aggregated into the economic sectors presented in this report. Macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), population and relative energy prices from the macroeconomic model are key drivers of energy use and GHG emissions in most sectors. More information about the E3MC model is available in Annex 7 .

Since 2011, ECCC has published annual GHG emissions projections as part of either:

• Federal climate plans (Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change in 2015, Canada's Strengthened Climate Plan in December 2020, Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan in March 2022).
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) biennial submissions (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022).
• Standalone domestic reports (2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018)^{Footnote 11} . 

This report presents Canada’s GHG and air pollutant emissions projections for years 2026, 2030 and 2035. Where applicable, historical emissions for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2021 (the most recent year for which historical emissions are available) are also shown^{Footnote 12} . Where indicated, full time series covering the period from 2005 to 2035 are available through the Government of Canada’s open data portal. In addition, interactive data visualizations for a selection of data tables available on open data are also available through Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections website.

2.1 Scope of the scenarios

As was the case with the release of Canada's 2030 ERP, this report presents projections using a combination of two modelling approaches – a "bottom-up" approach (represented by the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios), and a backcasting approach where emissions are capped at the level needed to achieve the 2030 target of 40 per cent below 2005 emissions.

Many federal, provincial, and municipal policies and measures currently exist in Canada that are intended to reduce GHG emissions or energy consumption. ECCC engages in extensive consultations with other federal government departments and provinces and territories to ensure their initiatives are accounted for in the analysis and modelling of emissions projections.

It should be noted that provincial and territorial targets are not modelled in the Reference Case or Additional Measures Scenarios^{Footnote 13} . Instead, individual policies to attain the provincial targets may be included in the modelling if they meet the criteria discussed below.

Emissions reductions from additional future actions will be assessed and included as new measures are developed and implemented.

For all scenarios, where program funding is set to end, the projections assume that the impacts of these programs, other than those embodied in consumer behaviour, cease when the approved funding terminates.

2.1.1 Reference case

Projections in the Reference Case include federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of August 2023 and assume no further government action. They also include the accounting contribution from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.

To be included in the Reference Case, policies and measures must:

• Have the necessary legislative and financial support.
• Have sufficient quantifiable information available for its impact to be estimated.
• Be expected to produce meaningful reductions (at least 100 kilotonnes of CO₂ eq).

The list of policies and measures modelled in the Reference Case can be found in Table A.31. A list of policies and measures that have been added to the Reference Case this year is also available in Section A4.2.

2.1.2 Additional measures scenario

The Additional Measures Scenario includes all federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures from the Reference Case as well as those that have been announced but have not yet been fully implemented. This scenario also includes the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, in addition to the impact of Nature-based climate solutions, Agriculture Measures, and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative.

It should be noted that the Additional Measures Scenario excludes measures that are still in the development or planning stages, but for which there is not enough information available for them to be included.

The list of policies and measures modelled in the Additional Measures Scenario, which includes a description of their underlying assumptions, can be found in Table A.32.

A list of policies and measures that have been added to the Additional Measures Scenario this year is also available in Section A4.2.

2.1.3 Backcasting

The Backcasting Scenario is an illustrative scenario which is based on all policies and measures included in the Additional Measures Scenario and is calibrated to achieve the 2030 target of a 40 per cent reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2005 levels. The results from the Backcasting Scenario should not be construed as signaling policy intentions, but rather as an illustration of what the modelling framework suggests are economically efficient opportunities to reach pre-determined emission reductions.

2.2 Greenhouse gas emissions projections under the reference case and additional measures scenarios

In 2021, the last year for which historical data was available, Canada's emissions were 670 Mt. When considering the accounting contribution of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, Canada's emissions reached 637 Mt (or 13 per cent below 2005).

Significant methodological improvements were implemented for the release of the NIR2023 in the estimation of waste landfills and transport emissions, among others; along with the inclusion of a new source: post-meter fugitive emissions. Overall, NIR2023 incorporates downward revisions of 9 Mt in 2005 and 14 Mt in 2020. Annex 4 discusses these changes and their impact on the projections in more detail.

Between 2005 and 2021, the Oil and Gas, Agriculture, and Buildings sectors showed emission increases of 21 Mt (12 per cent), 5 Mt (8 per cent), and 2 Mt (3 per cent), respectively. These increases have been more than offset by emission decreases in the Electricity (66 Mt, or 56 per cent), Heavy Industry (12 Mt, or 14 per cent), and Waste and Others (5 Mt, or 10 per cent) sectors. Since 2005, emissions in the Transportation sector have generally increased, with a significant drop in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Transportation emissions in 2021 are 7 Mt (4 per cent) below 2005 levels.

Under the Reference Case, GHG emissions are projected to decline to 592 Mt in 2030.If accounting contributions from the LULUCF sector are included, 2030 Reference Case emissions are projected to be 560 Mt. Post-2030, emissions projected in the Reference Case continue to decline, reaching 541 Mt in 2035 (including LULUCF).

Under the Additional Measures Scenario, emissions in 2030 decline to 467 Mt, when contributions from LULUCF, Nature-based climate solutions (NBCS), Agriculture Measures, and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) are included. This is 24 Mt below the 2030 projections from the December 2022 "With Additional Measures" (WAM) Scenario released in Canada's Eight National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (NC8/BR5). Post-2030, emissions projected in the Additional Measures Scenario (including LULUCF, NBCS, Agriculture Measures, and WCI Credits) continue to decline, reaching 423 Mt in 2035.

Table 1 and Figure 1 show how the projected trends in GHG emissions vary by economic sector. Table A.1 in Annex 1 provides a breakdown of projected trends in GHG emissions by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sector. Figure 2 shows projections under the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenario, as well as the projections presented in Canada's NC8/BR5.

More detailed projections by economic sector and a comparison between projections by sector categories and economic sectors are provided in Annex 1.

Table 1: GHG emissions by economic sector (Mt CO₂ eq), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case				Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030
Oil and Gas	168	179	203	189	177	162	158	-6	158	128	123	-41
Electricity*	118	95	79	52	38	20	13	-97	39	20	6	-97
Transportation	157	166	163	150	156	144	138	-12	155	137	116	-20
Heavy Industry	89	76	81	77	79	77	78	-12	74	63	62	-26
Buildings	85	82	85	87	80	75	73	-10	74	69	66	-16
Agriculture**	64	59	65	69	67	67	67	3	66	63	63	-1
Waste and Others	52	46	47	47	46	46	47	-7	39	32	33	-20
Subtotal	732	702	723	670	642	592	574	-140	604	512	468	-220
WCI Credits	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-4	-1	0	-1
LULUCF Accounting Contribution	n.a.	10	2	-33	-27	-32	-32	-32	-27	-32	-32	-32
NBCS and Agriculture Measures	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-13	-13	-13
Total	732	712	725	637	615	560	541	-172	573	467	423	-265

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

* Electricity emissions also include the contributions of steam generation.

** Additional emissions reductions in the Additional Measures Scenario occurring on agricultural lands are represented in the NBCS and Agriculture Measures row.

Figure 1: Economy wide emissions by economic sector (Mt CO₂ eq), reference case and additional measures scenarios, excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, agriculture measures, and WCI Credits, 2005 to 2035

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.
* Electricity emissions also include the contributions of steam generation.

Figure 2: Total Canadian GHG emissions (Mt CO₂ eq), including LULUCF accounting contribution, current and previous projections (scenarios from 2022 and 2023 projections), 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from NIR2022 and NIR2023. Access more data.
Ref23: Current Reference Case.
ERPPR23: Current Additional Measures Scenario, as prepared for the 2023 Progress Report on the 2030 ERP. Equivalent to AM23 in other tables and figures.
Ref22: With Measures Scenario (equivalent to Reference Case) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.
AM22: With Additional Measures Scenario (equivalent to Additional Measures Scenario) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.

2.2.1 Land-use, land-use change and forestry, nature-based climate solutions, and agriculture measures

The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector reports GHG fluxes (i.e., emissions and removals) between the atmosphere and Canada’s managed lands, fluxes associated with land-use changes, and emissions from harvested wood products (HWP) derived from these lands. Canada accounts for these fluxes in assessing progress towards emissions targets.

Nature-based climate solutions (NBCS) in forests, grasslands, wetlands, and agricultural lands can help mitigate the impacts of climate change while providing important benefits to biodiversity and communities. Nature-based climate solutions include: the Government of Canada’s commitment to plant two billion trees by 2031, restoring degraded ecosystems, improving land management practices (including on agricultural lands), and conserving land at risk of conversion to other uses.

The LULUCF accounting contribution (including the 2 Billion Trees program led by Natural Resources Canada) and estimated GHG impact of Nature-based climate solutions and Agriculture Measures can be seen in Figure 3, along with a breakdown of LULUCF Accounting by land category. The small LULUCF accounting debit in 2022 is due to the large positive contribution from cropland resulting from a significant drop in carbon input from crop production in 2021 due to the drought in the prairies.

Figure 3: LULUCF accounting contribution and GHG impact of nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures (Mt CO₂ eq), 2022 to 2035

2.2.1.1 Land-use, land-use change, and forestry

The LULUCF projection estimates presented in Table 2 are modelled separately from the other sectors. The table provides projected aggregated net GHG flux estimates for the LULUCF sector; the detailed breakdown by LULUCF sub-sectors of projected emissions and description of methodologies is provided in Annex 6. The aggregated accounting contribution for LULUCF sectors is presented in Table 3. These results include the impact of Natural Resources Canada’s 2 Billion Trees program.

Table 2: LULUCF sector net GHG flux estimates (Mt CO₂ eq), 1990 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical Estimates								Projected Estimates
	1990	2005	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2026	2030	2035
Total LULUCF	-65	-5.5	-11	-16	-11	-19	-13	-17	-26	-26	-27

Note: Historical estimates include all LULUCF sub-categories. Projected estimates include only sub-sectors for which projections are available (i.e., they exclude grassland, settlements remaining settlements and other land sub-sectors). Access more data.

The accounting contribution for Forest Land remaining Forest Land (FLFL, also known as the managed forest) and associated harvested wood products (HWP) is calculated using the reference level approach. For the rest of the LULUCF sub-sectors, including afforested land, the accounting contribution is calculated using the net-net approach using 2005 as the base year. Definitions of these accounting approaches and details of the calculations by LULUCF sub-sector are provided in Annex 6.

FLFL and associated HWP provide the largest share of the overall historical accounting and show a growing contribution through to 2021 because actual harvest rates continued to remain below the historical average harvest levels that were used to calculate the Reference Level. After 2021, the projected harvest rates remain below Reference Level harvest rates, leading to a relatively stable accounting contribution from FLFL and associated HWP until 2035.

The historical accounting contribution from Cropland Remaining Cropland varies significantly due to the high variability in emissions/removals from soil organic carbon input tied to crop production levels. The gradual decline in the carbon sink over the projected period is driven by emissions from conversion of perennial cropland to annual crops as land shifted toward annual crop production. These emissions partially offset carbon gains from crop production and tillage management. The level of these activities was assumed to be stable over the projection period resulting in lower carbon gains and reduced variability as soil carbon begins to stabilize.

Table 3: LULUCF accounting contribution (Mt CO₂ eq), 2016 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical Estimates						Projected Estimates
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2026	2030	2035
Total LULUCF Accounting Contribution	-10	-19	-18	-27	-30	-33	-27	-32	-32

Note: Historical estimates include all LULUCF sub-categories. Projected estimates include only sub-sectors for which projections are available (i.e., they exclude grassland, settlements remaining settlements and other land sub-sectors). Access more data.

2.2.1.2 Nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures

Nature-based climate solutions and Agriculture Measures in this context represent avoided conversion and restoration of ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and forest land, as well as the use of best management practices on agricultural land. The GHG impact of the 2 Billion Trees Program is included in the LULUCF accounting contribution, described in Section A6.4. Preliminary estimates for the GHG impact of Nature-based climate solutions and Agriculture Measures indicate that the avoided conversion and restoration programs could reduce the net flux in the LULUCF sector by between 12 and 14 Mt CO₂ eq per year in the period from 2030 to 2035. These estimates are not accounting values but represent how accounting contributions could change in the presence of these programs. The accounting contribution will be determined by updated methodologies over the next few years. In the context of the projections, a central estimate of 13 Mt per year was used to represent the impact of these measures. Nature-based climate solutions and Agriculture Measures include:

• Programs funded under Agricultural Climate Solutions (ACS) Fund and Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership (S-CAP) include activities such as rotational grazing, and implementation of best nutrient and manure management practices that promote sequestration of carbon in agricultural soils. These measures are estimated to reduce emissions by 7 Mt CO₂ eq per year in the period from 2030 to 2035. The projected reductions are incremental to those now included in the modelling of Agriculture emissions in the Additional Measures Scenario.
• Programs funded under the Nature Smart Climate Solutions Fund (NSCSF) and Agricultural Climate Solutions Fund. NSCSF activities include: avoided conversion; improved management; and restoration of ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and forest land. These programs are targeted to reduce emissions by 5 to 7 Mt CO₂ eq per year in the period from 2030 to 2035; projections used a central estimate of 6 Mt per year.
• Emissions reductions from activities funded by the Agricultural Clean Technology Program (ACT) are now modelled in the Additional Measures Scenario and are not included in Table 4.

Table 4: Emissions reductions / accounting impact of nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures added to the additional measures scenario (Mt CO₂ eq), 2030 and 2035

Category	2030	2035
Agriculture Measures	-7	-7
Budget 2021 Measures On-Farm Climate Action Fund, ACS Living Labs	-2	-2
Budget 2022 Measures On-Farm Climate Action Fund (except nitrogen management), Sustainable Canadian Agriculture Partnership (except fertilizer emissions reduction), Resilient Agricultural Landscapes Program	-5	-5
Fertilizer Target (30 per cent reduction from 2020 level) Includes impacts of nitrogen management from On-Farm Climate Action Fund, Sustainable Canadian Agriculture Partnership, additional funding from Budget 2023	**	**
Nature-Smart Climate Solutions	-5 to -7 (-6)	-5 to -7 (-6)
Nature Smart Climate Solutions (Round 1) Avoided conversion of wetlands, grasslands, and forests, restoration of wetlands and grasslands	-2 to -4 (-3)	-2 to -4 (-3)
Nature Smart Climate Solutions (Round 2) Extension of activities from Round 1 funding	-3	-3
Total Additional Reductions from Nature-Based Solutions and Agriculture Measures	-12 to -14 (-13)	-12 to -14 (-13)

** now modelled in the Additional Measures Scenario 

The estimates for the reductions from some agriculture measures have been revised since Canada’s Fifth Biennial Report due to changes in the eligible practices under the programs compared to when the estimates were initially developed, with more funds being dedicated to nitrogen management. Since nitrogen management tends to higher GHG abatement cost, this shift in funding reduces the total emission reduction estimates, but increases the fertilizer-related reductions, closing the gap between funded reductions and the fertilizer target (30 per cent reduction from 2020 level).

2.2.2 Emissions intensity

Canadian historical GHG emissions per capita, excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, and Agriculture Measures, have been declined an average of 1.6 per cent per year over between 2005 to 2021. Declines in emissions intensity are expected to accelerate in the projection period, decreasing by 2.9 per cent per year between 2021 and 2030 in the Reference Case, and by 4.5 per cent per year in the Additional Measures Scenario.

Emissions per capita were 22.7 tonnes CO₂ eq per person in 2005. In 2021, emissions per capita (excluding the contribution of LULUCF, NBCS, and Agriculture Measures) were 17.5 tonnes CO₂ eq per person, slightly higher than the low of 17.3 tonnes per person observed in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Reference Case projections show per capita emissions will continue to decrease through 2030 and are expected to reach 13.4 tonnes per person in 2030 and 12.3 tonnes in 2035. In the Additional Measures Scenario, emissions intensity decreases even more, to reach 11.6 tonnes per person in 2030 and 10.1 tonnes per person in 2035. It should be noted that population growth is expected to be 15 per cent between 2021 and 2030.

Figure 4 shows the evolution of Canada's GHG emissions intensity per unit of GDP and per capita, from 1990 to 2035. Table 7 also provides details on GHG emissions intensity per capita by province and territory.

Figure 4: Canadian emissions intensity (t CO₂ eq per capita and kt CO₂ eq per unit of GDP), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, and agriculture measures, reference case and additional measures scenarios, 1990 to 2035

Note: Historical GDP and population data come from Statistics Canada. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

2.2.3 Emissions by gas

Detailed emissions projections by gas and economic sectors are provided in Annex 1, along with a discussion of the trends. Total Canadian GHG emissions over the projection period by gas (excluding LULUCF, NBCS, Agriculture Measures and WCI Credits) are presented in Table 5.

Table 5: Canadian GHG emissions by gas (Mt CO₂ eq, except for NF₃), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, agriculture measures, and WCI credits, reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case				Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)	575	556	571	537	519	471	454	-103	492	422	380	-153
Methane (CH4)	115	108	110	91	85	84	84	-31	74	57	57	-58
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)	32	28	30	30	31	31	31	-1	30	27	27	-5
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)	5	8	11	11	7	6	4	1	8	6	4	1
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)	4	2	1	1	<1	<1	<1	-3	<1	<1	<1	-3
Sulphur-Hexafluoride (SF6)	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	-1	<1	<1	<1	-1
Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF3) (kt CO2 eq)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
Total	732	702	723	670	642	592	574	-140	604	512	468	-220

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

2.2.4 Emissions by province and territory

Historical emissions vary considerably by province and territory. These differences are driven by diversity in population size, economic activity, and resource base, among other factors. Provinces and territories where the economy is oriented more toward resource extraction tend to have higher emissions whereas more manufacturing or service-based economies tend to have lower emissions. Electricity generation sources also vary in different provinces and territories. Those that rely on fossil fuels for their electricity generation tend to have higher emissions than provinces and territories that rely more on non-emitting sources of electricity (e.g., hydroelectricity, nuclear, and wind).

Provincial and territorial projections reflect a diverse economic factors and varying provincial/territorial measures to reduce GHG emissions. These include carbon pricing, energy efficiency and renewable electricity programs, legislated renewable electricity targets, and regulatory measures. Although provincial and territorial governments have announced a diverse range of measures, only measures that could be readily modelled or have an announced regulatory or budgetary dimension were included in the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios. Aspirational goals and targets are not included in the projections. Provincial and territorial policies and measures modelled in the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios are listed in Annex 3 (Table A.31 and Table A.32). Provincial emissions reductions targets, although not included in the modelling, are listed in Table A.35.

Table 6 displays historical and projected provincial and territorial GHG emissions, while Table 7 presents GHG emissions intensity per capita. For both tables, GHG emissions exclude both the accounting contribution of the LULUCF sector and the impact of NBCS and Agriculture Measures.

Table 6: Canadian GHG emissions by province and territory (Mt CO₂ eq), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, and agriculture measures, reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case				Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030
Newfoundland and Labrador	10	10	11	8	8	8	7	-2	7	7	6	-3
Prince Edward Island	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	< -1	2	1	1	< -1
Nova Scotia	23	20	16	15	14	9	8	-14	13	9	7	-14
New Brunswick	20	17	14	12	11	9	8	-11	11	7	6	-12
Quebec*	86	79	77	77	72	68	65	-18	65	59	53	-27
Ontario	204	172	163	151	160	151	145	-53	154	134	118	-70
Manitoba	20	19	21	21	20	19	19	< -1	19	17	16	-3
Saskatchewan	68	68	77	67	60	50	48	-18	60	44	40	-24
Alberta	236	253	281	256	235	217	212	-19	212	180	170	-56
British Columbia	62	58	58	59	57	57	57	-4	55	50	47	-11
The Yukon	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	< 1	1	1	1	< 1
Northwest Territories	2	1	2	1	2	2	2	< -1	2	2	1	< -1
Nunavut	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	< 1	1	1	1	< 1
Canada	732	702	723	670	642	592	574	-140	600	512	468	-221

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.
* Projections for Quebec for the Additional Measures Scenario include purchased credits under the Western Climate Initiative.

Table 7: Per capita GHG emissions by province and territory (t CO₂ eq per capita), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, NBCS, and agriculture measures, reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case				Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030
Newfoundland and Labrador	19.8	18.6	20.4	16.0	14.2	14.2	13.3	-5.6	13.8	13.2	11.8	-6.7
Prince Edward Island	13.6	12.9	10.7	9.9	8.5	7.6	6.8	-6.0	8.1	6.7	5.5	-6.9
Nova Scotia	24.3	21.3	17.6	14.7	12.6	7.8	6.9	-16.5	12.2	7.7	5.5	-16.5
New Brunswick	26.2	23.2	18.2	15.0	12.9	9.4	8.6	-16.8	12.3	7.8	6.6	-18.4
Quebec*	11.3	9.9	9.5	9.0	8.0	7.3	6.9	-3.9	7.2	6.4	5.7	-4.9
Ontario	16.3	13.1	11.9	10.2	9.6	8.6	7.7	-7.7	9.3	7.6	6.3	-8.6
Manitoba	17.2	15.6	16.0	14.9	13.4	12.5	11.7	-4.8	12.8	11	9.9	-6.2
Saskatchewan	68.3	65.0	68.6	56.8	47.7	38.1	35.1	-30.2	47.1	33.7	29.5	-34.5
Alberta	71.0	67.9	67.9	57.6	46.9	40.7	36.8	-30.3	42.4	33.7	29.5	-37.3
British Columbia	14.7	13.1	12.2	11.4	9.9	9.4	8.8	-5.3	9.5	8.3	7.3	-6.4
The Yukon	17.6	18.7	14.1	15.0	15.2	13.4	12.0	-4.2	13.9	13.4	11.4	-4.2
Northwest Territories	39.7	34.4	35.6	28.2	34.8	34.1	33.9	-5.6	34.7	32.7	31.3	-7.0
Nunavut	19.2	18.0	17.4	15.8	17.0	17.2	17.4	-2.0	16.8	16.6	16.9	-2.7
Canada	22.7	20.6	20.2	17.5	15.3	13.4	12.3	-9.3	14.3	11.6	10.1	-11.1

Note: Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.
* Projections for Quebec for the Additional Measures Scenario include purchased credits under the Western Climate Initiative.

2.2.5 Sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty is inherent in any model that looks into the future. This section examines alternative scenarios to demonstrate the sensitivity of GHG emission projections to variables such as energy prices and economic growth. Other sources of uncertainty also exist and are discussed in more detail in Annex 5.

The scenarios presented in the previous section represent the best available information at this time. However, events that will shape emissions and energy markets cannot be fully anticipated, as we have seen from recent global developments. Moreover, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty. Uncertainty in these complex economic and energy variables implies that the modelling results should be viewed as a range of plausible outcomes.

Uncertainty is addressed via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in future economic growth, population and oil and natural gas prices. Figure 5 and Table 8 present GHG emissions under the Reference Case, a low scenario (with slow GDP and population growth and low world oil prices) and a high scenario (with fast GDP and population growth and high world oil prices). On the low end, emissions could be 563 Mt CO₂ eq by 2030, while they could reach 618 Mt on the high end. This represents range of between 4 and 5 per cent around the 2030 to Reference Case projections. It is also important to note that as the sensitivity analysis is built upon the results from the Reference Case, the results do not consider the impact of NBCS, Agriculture Measures, and WCI Credits. More detailed results can be found in Annex 5^{Footnote 14} .

Figure 5: Canadian GHG emissions (Mt CO₂ eq), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, low emissions, reference case, and high emissions scenarios, 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

Table 8: Canadian GHG emissions (Mt CO₂ eq), excluding LULUCF accounting contribution, low emissions, reference case and high emissions scenarios, 2026, 2030 and 2035

Scenarios	2026	2030	2035	Change 2005 to 2030	Per Cent Change 2005 to 2030
Low	635	563	523	-169	-23.1%
High	655	618	621	-114	-15.6%
Reference Case	642	592	574	-140	-19.2%
Sensitivity Range	635 to 655	563 to 618	523 to 621	-169 to -114	-23.1% to -15.6%

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

Table 9 and Table 10 present the assumptions behind the low and high scenario.

Table 9: Economic and population growth rate assumptions, low emissions, reference case and high emissions scenarios, 2023 to 2035

-	Low	Reference Case	High
Annual GDP Growth Rate	0.70%	1.74%	2.91%
Annual Population Growth Rate	0.89%	1.38%	1.73%

Table 10: Oil and gas prices and production, low emissions, reference case, and high emissions scenarios, 2025 to 2035 (selected years)

Scenario	Fuel	Units	2025	2026	2030	2035
Low	Crude Oil Price (WTI)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$62.68	$57.09	$34.66	$34.66
	Heavy Oil (WCS)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$51.67	$46.08	$23.65	$23.65
	Crude Oil	Mb/d	5 728	5 773	5 725	5 172
	Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	Real 2021 US$/MMBtu	$2.50	$2.44	$2.28	$2.44
	Natural Gas	Bcf	7 107	6 946	5 945	5 048
Reference Case	Crude Oil Price (WTI)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$71.79	$71.01	$67.89	$67.89
	Heavy Oil (WCS)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$60.09	$59.30	$56.18	$56.18
	Crude Oil	Mb/d	5 771	5 868	6 239	6 457
	Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	Real 2021 US$/MMBtu	$3.51	$3.51	$3.51	$3.66
	Natural Gas	Bcf	7 370	7 456	7 458	7 524
High	Crude Oil Price (WTI)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$86.79	$92.73	$116.50	$116.50
	Heavy Oil (WCS)	Real 2021 US$/bbl	$73.63	$79.51	$103.16	$103.16
	Crude Oil	Mb/d	5 835	5 981	6 708	7 480
	Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	Real 2021 US$/MMBtu	$4.82	$4.84	$4.92	$5.02
	Natural Gas	Bcf	7 645	7 941	8 652	9 379

Note: Access more data (information on production and price data is only available online for the Reference Case).

2.2.6 Comparison to previous projections

2.2.6.1 Canada's Eight National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

In 2030, Canada's GHG emissions under the Reference Case (including the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector) are projected to decline to 560 Mt, or 65 Mt below the Reference Case of 625 Mt presented in Canada's NC8/BR5. Not only have projected emissions changed, but historical emissions have also changed because of improvements and refinements to data sources and methodologies^{Footnote 15} .These revisions go back to 2005.

In the Additional Measures Scenario, Canada's GHG emissions (including LULUCF, NBCS, Agriculture Measures, and WCI Credits) are projected to be 467 Mt in 2030, 24 Mt lower than the Additional Measures projections included in NC8/BR5.

Figure 6 illustrates the contribution of each sector to projected emissions reductions in 2030. Table 11 presents changes at the economic sector level between the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios. The changes to the projections for each sector identified in this figure are discussed in more detail in Annex 1.

Figure 6: Contribution to differences in level of emissions in 2030 (Mt CO₂ eq), current additional measures scenario compared to the "with additional measures" scenario from NC8/BR5

Table 11: Canada's 2030 GHG emissions projections by economic sector (Mt CO₂ eq), current reference case and additional measures scenarios, comparison to projections presented in NC8/BR5

-	Reference Case			Additional Measures
	Ref22	Ref23	Change	AM22	AM23	Change
Oil and Gas	183	162	-20	135	128	-7
Electricity	33	20	-12	19	20	1
Transportation	163	144	-18	158	137	-20
Heavy Industry	72	77	5	60	63	3
Buildings	69	75	6	55	69	14
Agriculture	69	67	-3	63	63	-1
Waste and Others	50	46	-4	32	32	0
WCI Credits	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-4	-1	3
LULUCF Accounting Contribution	-12	-32	-19	-12	-32	-19
NBCS and Agriculture Measures	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-15	-13	2
Total	625	560	-65	491	467	-24

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Access more data.

Ref23: Current Reference Case.
AM23: Current Additional Measures Scenario.
Ref22: With Measures Scenario (equivalent to Reference Case) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.
AM22: With Additional Measures Scenario (equivalent to Additional Measures Scenario) published in NC8/BR5 in 2022.

2.2.6.2 Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan

The modelling for the original 2030 ERP was completed in early 2022, which means that Canada’s GHG emissions projections have gone through two update cycles since then. The first revision was published in December 2022 in NC8/BR5, and the second revision is presented in this report. Each revision has included updates to historical data, macroeconomic projections, methodology, and oil and gas production forecasts. Policy assumptions have also been modified twice since the release of the 2030 ERP. Changes since the release of NC8/BR5 are discussed in detail in Annex 4. Changes between the release of NC8/BR5 and the 2030 ERP are discussed in Chapter 5, Annex 4 of NC8/BR5.

Emissions in 2030 are projected to be 88 Mt lower in the 2023 Reference Case compared to the 2021 Reference Case that served as a baseline for modelling the 2030 ERP.

Table 12 shows projected 2030 emissions levels in the Reference Case are lower in the Oil and Gas and Transportation sectors compared to the 2030 ERP projections. This is mostly due to:

• Updated Oil and Gas projections from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) which indicate lower oil sands but higher conventional oil, gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production relative to 2030 ERP levels in the Oil and Gas Sector.
• Significant methodological change in the Transportation sector historical data resulted in a large decrease in emissions in the freight sector. This decrease in the historic data persists through the projection period.
• A revision to the LULUCF accounting contribution, leading to emissions being roughly 21 Mt less in 2030 in the current Reference Case compared to the 2030 ERP projections. This is primarily driven by a larger accounting credit from Forest Land remaining Forest Land and Harvested Wood Products. This increased credit is the result of key provinces submitting lower projected harvest rates due to tree mortality resulting from recent natural disturbances (excluding 2023 fires), while the reference level remains relatively stable.

As discussed in Section 2.1.2, the Additional Measures Scenario includes all policies and measures from the Reference Case, plus announced policies and measures that have not been legislated, fully funded, or fully fleshed out. Over time, some policies and measures move from the Additional Measures Scenario to the Reference Case. Other measures remain in the Additional Measures Scenario but with updated modelling assumptions. Some measures can be removed from the modelling altogether if they do not materialize.

In the Additional Measures Scenario, 2030 emissions are projected to be 3 Mt lower than in the 2030 ERP Bottom-Up Scenario, which is comparable to the current Additional Measures Scenario (Table 12). In addition to the impact of changes to historical data and to the LULUCF accounting contribution, the main reasons for the differences are as follows:

• Oil and Gas: Emissions projections are higher than the 2030 ERP due to updated CER projections, less optimistic assumptions on the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and revisions to the hydrogen strategy modelling assumptions.
• Heavy Industry: Higher historical emission intensities in some key sectors and revisions to the hydrogen strategy modelling assumptions lead to higher emissions projections.
• Transportation: Emissions projections are lower in the Transportation sector for the same reasons as the Reference Case.
• Buildings: Revisions to the net-zero building codes lead to higher emission projections and hydrogen strategy modelling assumptions.
• Agriculture: Revised historical and projected emissions from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada lead to lower emissions from Agriculture. Also, some of the Agriculture Measures that were not modelled but listed separately for the 2030 ERP are now included in the Agriculture projections, leading to lower emissions.
• Differences in historical emissions and LULUCF accounting same as in the Reference Case.

Table 12: Canada's 2030 GHG emissions projections by economic sector (Mt CO₂ eq), current reference case and additional measures scenarios, comparison to projections presented in Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan

-	Reference Case			Additional Measures
	ERP (Reference Case)	Ref23	Change	ERP (Bottom-Up)	AM23	Change
Oil and Gas	187	162	-25	118	128	10
Electricity	28	20	-8	15	20	5
Transportation	170	144	-26	152	137	-15
Heavy Industry	75	77	2	57	63	6
Buildings	76	75	-1	60	69	9
Agriculture	74	67	-7	73	63	-10
Waste and Others	50	46	-4	31	32	1
WCI Credits	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-7	-1	6
LULUCF Accounting Contribution + NBCS/Agriculture Measures	-11	-32	-21	-30	-45	-15
Total	648	560	-88	470	467	-3

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Access more data.
Projections from the 2030 ERP Bottom-Up Scenario were developed using a different model than those developed for the current Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios. For this reason, the definitions of sectors between the two approaches leads to slight differences when comparing sector totals between these scenarios.

2.3 Emissions projections under the backcasting scenario

Similar to Canada's 2030 ERP, this report presents projections using a combination of two modelling approaches – a "bottom-up" approach (used in the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios), and a backcasting approach.

The Backcasting Scenario is an illustrative scenario which is based on all policies and measures included in the Additional Measures Scenario (excluding WCI Credits) and is calibrated to achieve the 2030 target of a 40 per cent reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2005 levels. The results from the Backcasting Scenario should not be construed as signaling policy intentions, but rather as an illustration of what the modelling framework suggests are economically efficient opportunities to reach pre-determined emission reductions.

Results of the Backcasting Scenario are indicative of where there is emissions reduction potential in key sectors to make additional progress. It is important to note that the results from the Backcasting Scenario are not sectoral targets, rather they are projected sectoral contributions. The emissions reductions ultimately contributed by each sector are likely to vary over time as Canada responds to real-world changes, such as other countries implementing their climate plans and changes in global demand for oil and natural gas. In addition, it should be emphasized that the potential reductions identified by the results of the Backcasting Scenario represent only one possible pathway to achieving the 2030 target, using an approach that considers the most economically efficient pathway to achieving Canada's 2030 target by sector. While economic efficiency is important, there are other factors that will be key in determining Canada's ultimate trajectory to 2030. For example, technological feasibility, labour availability, and the enabling infrastructure needed to achieve modelled reductions are all considerations that will influence Canada's pathway to 2030 by sector. Despite this caveat, this exercise is still useful in providing an indicative understanding of how reductions could be distributed across sectors in an economically efficient way.

Table 13 presents the results, noting that these indicative figures are based on the best available information at this time, including emissions data from NIR2023, and are subject to future revision. As new measures are developed, decarbonisation dynamics between sectors evolves, and as new historical data becomes available, these numbers will change. The Government of Canada will continue to refine and update projections through future emissions projections reports.

Table 13: GHG emissions by economic sector (Mt CO₂ eq), backcasting and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2030 (selected years)

	Historical				Projections – Additional Measures		Projections – Backcasting
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2030	Change 2005 to 2030	2030	Change 2005 to 2030
Oil and Gas	168	179	203	189	128	-41	119	-49
Electricity	118	95	79	52	20	-97	22	-96
Transportation	157	166	163	150	137	-20	128	-29
Heavy Industry	89	76	81	77	63	-26	57	-32
Buildings	85	82	85	87	69	-16	64	-21
Agriculture	64	59	65	69	63	-1	63	-1
Waste and Others	52	46	47	47	32	-20	30	-22
Subtotal	732	702	723	670	512	-220	483	-249
WCI Credits	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-1	-1	n.a.	n.a.
LULUCF Accounting Contribution	n.a.	10	2	-33	-32	-32	-32	-32
NBCS and Agriculture Measures	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-13	-13	-13	-13
Total	732	712	725	637	467	-265	438	-294

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from NIR2023. Access more data.

3 Air pollutant emissions projections

Air quality is important and influences the daily life of all Canadians. It affects not only human health, but also the delicate balance of the natural environment, the integrity of buildings and infrastructure, crop production, and the overall state of the economy. Projections of air pollutant emissions play a pivotal role in guiding both domestic and international efforts aimed at improving air quality.

Canada actively collaborates with other nations to address transboundary air pollution, recognizing its substantial impact on Canadian air quality. Canada is a signatory to the Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement (AQA) and actively participates in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP or Air Convention).

The Gothenburg Protocol stands out as the latest and most active among the eight protocols operating within the Air Convention. The Protocol was initially signed by Canada in December 1999 and came into force internationally in May 2005 to address pollutants responsible for acidification, eutrophication, and ground-level ozone. It was updated in May 2012 to include particulate matter (PM) and new commitments for 2020. Canada ratified the Gothenburg Protocol and its amendments in November 2017, and the Protocol entered into force in October 2019. Canada’s commitments under the Gothenburg Protocol include:

• Emissions ceilings of 1 450 kt for sulphur dioxide (SO₂), 2 250 kt for nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and 2 100 kt for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), to be achieved by 2010 and maintained to 2020.
• Indicative emission reduction commitments expressed as a percentage reduction from the base year of 2005 of 55 per cent for SO₂, 35 per cent for NO_x, 20 per cent for VOCs and 25 per cent for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)^{Footnote 16} , to be met by 2020 and maintained.
• Limiting emissions in specific sectors using Canadian air pollution emission reduction measures (included in the Protocol annexes).

The Canada-U.S. AQA demonstrates remarkable success in upholding commitments to reduce emissions of SO₂, NO_x and VOCs, with both nations consistently meeting these targets for an extended period. Both the Gothenburg Protocol and the AQA are currently undergoing a thorough review and may be updated in the future.

Canada also collaborates with Arctic countries under the Arctic Council to collectively reduce emissions of black carbon, an air pollutant known for its significant climate warming properties and serious impacts on human health. Canada and other Arctic States have committed to a collective, aspirational goal to reduce emissions of black carbon by 25 to 33 per cent below 2013 levels by 2025.

The following section provides projections of air pollutant emissions through 2035, aligned to Canada's historical air pollutant emissions from 1990 to 2021 as presented in Canada's Air Pollutant Emissions Inventory Report 2023 (APEI 2023) and Canada's Black Carbon Inventory Report 2023. This section is divided into sub-sections providing background information on the causes of growth or decline of projected air pollutant emissions in Canada.

In accordance with international reporting requirements, Canada's national total emissions exclude emissions from domestic and international air transportation at cruise speed and international marine navigation emissions. These emissions are compiled under the category "Other Sources". Federal, provincial and territorial air pollutant policies and measures that were included in the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios are provided in Annex 3 (Table A.33 and Table A.34).

Emissions trends from 2005 to 2035 for each of the 10 pollutants, as well as their respective emissions reduction commitment or goal, where applicable, are presented in Figure 8 to Figure 19.

A summary of historical and projected emissions by pollutant is provided in Table 14. Detailed national emissions by economic sector and pollutant for select historical and projection years are provided in Table 16 through Table 24.

Based on historical emissions data, Canada's current emission reduction commitments under the Gothenburg Protocol set emissions ceilings of 945 kt for SO₂, 1 473 kt for NO_x, 1 831 kt for VOCs, and 217 kt for non-open-source PM_2.5 to be met by 2020 and maintained. Similarly, Canada's commitments under the Arctic Council require the country to reduce its black carbon emissions to below 27.8 kt (low commitment – 25 per cent reduction) or 24.8 kt (high commitment – 33 per cent reduction) by 2025.

Canada has successfully achieved these emissions reduction targets, demonstrating its environmental stewardship and adherence to international agreements. Moreover, projections from both the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios indicate that Canada is expected to consistently meet all reduction targets under the Gothenburg Protocol and the Arctic Council commitments.

Table 14: Air pollutant emissions by pollutant, excluding other sources (kt, except mercury), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Nitrogen Oxides	2 266	1 896	1 546	1 321	1 069	986	955	1 026	896	810
Sulphur Oxides	2 099	1 295	1 065	641	548	436	441	539	399	402
Volatile Organic Compounds	2 289	1 837	1 711	1 400	1 322	1 358	1 413	1 332	1 357	1 383
Total Particulate MatterFootnote 17
(excl. Open Sources)	669	620	575	702	697	692	702	706	697	710
(incl. Open Sources)	19 351	23 218	27 268	26 702	29 483	31 154	33 491	30 951	32 843	35 193
PM10Footnote 18
(excl. Open Sources)	405	351	325	378	365	357	354	366	355	351
(incl. Open Sources)	6 200	7 252	8 424	8 240	9 018	9 481	10 135	9 451	9 977	10 633
PM2.5Footnote 19
(excl. Open Sources)	289	236	216	203	186	176	169	184	172	164
(incl. Open Sources)	1 241	1 346	1 515	1 463	1 557	1 607	1 686	1 635	1 695	1 773
Carbon Monoxide	8 916	6 745	5 345	4 596	4 614	4 492	4 428	4 597	4 259	3 827
Mercury (Kilograms)	7 935	5 324	3 562	3 194	3 270	3 074	3 112	3 283	2 992	3 031
Ammonia	489	449	468	493	603	644	705	605	642	703
Black Carbon	n.a.	n.a.	33.7	26.0	22.2	20.1	19.1	21.5	18.7	16.9

Note: Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023 and Canada's Black Carbon Inventory Report 2023. Access more data.
Other sources include emissions from domestic and international air transportation at cruise speed, and international marine emissions.

3.1 Nitrogen oxides (NO_x)

The main sources of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions in Canada are diesel use in transportation, natural gas production, mining activities, and utility electric generation.

There has been a consistent decline in NO_x emissions since 2005, and this trend is expected to continue. This decline can be attributed to several key factors, such as the phasing out of coal for electricity generation, the implementation of the Multi-Sector Air Pollutants Regulation (MSAPR) aimed at various industrial facilities within the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors, as well as a range of measures targeting emissions reduction in the Transportation sector.

In the Additional Measures Scenario, further reductions are expected primarily due to efficiency improvements in diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles, accelerated electrification initiatives within the Transportation sector, and implementation of the Clean Electricity Regulations.

These combined efforts are expected to consistently keep Canada’s NO_x emissions well below the reduction commitment outlined in the Gothenburg Protocol throughout the projection period. This commitment aims to achieve a 35 per cent reduction below the 2005 level, setting an emissions ceiling of 1 473 kt for NO_x emissions from the year 2020 and beyond. Canada is expected to meet this target in both the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios.

Table 15: Nitrogen oxides emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Oil and Gas	457	482	498	476	259	232	207	247	212	186
Electricity	246	228	147	95	73	34	23	74	37	11
Transportation	971	774	512	416	423	421	427	402	374	340
Heavy Industry	231	165	165	146	141	141	144	139	132	137
Buildings	80	69	70	68	63	59	57	57	52	49
Agriculture	89	75	76	62	55	45	41	54	44	40
Waste and Others	193	102	77	58	56	54	55	52	45	46
Total	2 266	1 896	1 546	1 321	1 069	986	955	1 026	896	810
Other Sources	204	193	207	153	184	191	202	187	192	200

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

Figure 7: Nitrogen oxides emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

3.2 Sulphur oxides (SO_x)

In Canada, the main sources of sulphur oxides (SO_x) emissions include the metallurgical industry, coal-fired electricity generation, and natural gas processing.

SO_x emissions in Canada have significantly declined over the past years and are expected to drop further in the future. This decline can be primarily attributed to the coal phase-out for electricity generation; regulations on low-sulphur fuels; and the implementation of SO_x emissions standards for various industrial activities.

Further reductions are anticipated in the Additional Measures Scenario mainly due to the expected transition towards hydrogen fuel as well as reducing overall fossil fuel usage in both the Heavy Industry and Oil and Gas sectors.

As a result of these collective measures, SO_x emissions in Canada are expected to remain below the reduction commitment outlined in the Gothenburg Protocol throughout the projection period. This commitment, targeting a 55 per cent reduction from the 2005 level, establishes an emission ceiling of 945 kt for SO_x emissions from the year 2020 onwards. Canada is anticipated to achieve this target in both the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios.

Table 16: Sulphur oxides emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Oil and Gas	476	349	271	268	243	228	223	231	208	202
Electricity	518	333	251	168	111	5	5	111	6	4
Transportation	68	41	8	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Heavy Industry	946	541	521	192	183	192	203	187	176	187
Buildings	37	16	7	4	3	3	3	3	3	2
Agriculture	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Waste and Others	52	11	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4
Total	2 099	1 295	1 065	641	548	436	441	539	399	402
Other Sources	80	71	8	5	6	6	7	6	6	7

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

Figure 8: Sulphur oxides emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

3.3 Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

The main sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions include fugitive releases from the Oil and Gas sector, the combustion of diesel and gasoline fuel in transportation, and biomass burning for heating. Moreover, the widespread use of everyday consumer products in homes and businesses contributes to VOCs emissions from the Buildings sector.

VOCs emissions in Canada have been declining over the years and are projected to continue to decrease into the early projection period. This reduction is mainly driven by regulations targeting methane and VOCs emissions in the upstream Oil and Gas sector, as well as the establishment of VOCs concentration limits in specific consumer products. Furthermore, the anticipated reduction in demand for gasoline and diesel in the Transportation sector, along with decreasing biomass use in residential buildings, further contributes to this positive trend. However, it is anticipated that VOCs emissions may rise after 2025 due to the expected increase in light oil production.

In the Additional Measures Scenario, VOCs emissions are expected to be slightly higher during the early projection years, primarily due to increased economic activities resulting from additional energy investments in heavy and light manufacturing industries. However, increased electrification efforts in the Transportation sector, as well as extended efficiency improvements in diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles are expected to drive a sustained decline in overall VOCs emissions during the late projection period.

As a result, VOCs emissions in Canada are expected to remain below the reduction commitment outlined in the Gothenburg Protocol throughout the projection period. This commitment aims to achieve a 20 per cent reduction below the 2005 level, setting an emissions ceiling of 1 831 kt for VOCs emissions from the year 2020 and beyond. Canada is poised to achieve this goal in both the Reference Case and Additional Measures Scenarios.

Table 17: Volatile organic compounds emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Oil and Gas	708	623	719	572	503	528	564	503	531	562
Electricity	3	2	1	1	8	8	5	9	8	0
Transportation	589	418	256	182	189	189	194	189	176	156
Heavy Industry	134	86	73	68	72	76	80	74	76	80
Buildings	321	302	291	248	207	198	193	206	200	200
Agriculture	158	148	147	144	143	143	143	143	143	143
Waste and Others	377	259	223	186	200	217	234	208	224	242
Total	2 289	1 837	1 711	1 400	1 322	1 358	1 413	1 332	1 357	1 383
Other Sources	8	8	8	5	6	6	7	6	7	7

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding. Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

Figure 9: Volatile organic compounds emissions (kt), reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035

Note: Historical emissions data come from APEI 2023. Access more data.

3.4 Particulate matter (PM)

The majority of emissions of particulate matter (TPM, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) come from open sources. Open sources include emissions from construction (excluding mobile and stationary off-road equipment emissions), crop production and road dust, and account for about 98 per cent of total PM emissions.

Other significant sources of PM emissions are utility electric generation, production of non-ferrous metals and iron ore pelletizing. Although measures like the Base Level Industrial Emission Requirements (BLIERs) target non-open-source PM emissions from various industrial activities, the overall PM emissions are projected to rise in the future. This trend, primarily driven by the increase in open-source emissions outpacing reductions achieved in targeted industries, can be attributed to the anticipated growth in transportation and construction activities, as well as crop production.

In the Additional Measures Scenario, PM emissions are anticipated to grow even further due to increased construction activities resulting from the expected rise in energy investment projects.

Regardless, non-open-source fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions are expected to stay below the reduction commitment outlined in the Gothenburg Protocol throughout the forecasted period. Under this commitment, Canada aims to achieve 25 per cent reduction below the 2005 level, thereby establishing an emissions ceiling of 217 kt for non-open-source PM_2.5 emissions from the year 2020 onwards.

Table 18: Total particulate matter emissions (kt), including and excluding open sources, reference case and additional measures scenarios, 2005 to 2035 (selected years)

-	Historical				Projected – Reference Case			Projected – Additional Measures
	2005	2010	2015	2021	2026	2030	2035	2026	2030	2035
Oil and Gas	35	19	22	35	35	35	35	34	34	34
Electricity	34	20	19	13	12	2	1	12	1	1
Transportation	53	38	29	24	26	26	26	25	24	22
Heavy Industry	182	135	128	129	136	141	147	141	144	149
Buildings	158	165	177	180	162	151	144	163	158	157
Agriculture	4 546	3 807	3 796	3 614	3 617	3 635	3 648	3 621	3 627	3 643
Waste and Others	14 343	19 034	23 097	22 707	25 496	27 163	29 489	26 955	28 855	31 188
Total (excluding open sources)	669	620	575	702	697	692	702	706	697	710
Total	19 351	23 218	27 268	26 702	29 483	31 154	33 491	30 951	32 843	35 193
Other Sources	12	10	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2