Exports are a significant economic driver of the Prairie economy. Top destinations include the U.S. ($203 billion, 82%), China ($13 billion, 5%), and Japan ($5 billion, 2%).
China’s tariffs on canola oil, canola meal, peas, pork, and seafood products will impact $1.4 billion of Prairie exports to China.
U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum will impact nearly $1 billion of Prairie exports (4% of the Canadian total).
Broader U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports beyond energy would have varying impacts across the Prairie economy. Fertilizer and canola oil exports will largely be felt in Saskatchewan; medicines/pharmaceuticals, and transport vehicle exports will be impacted in Manitoba; and plastics, beef and canola oil exports will be impacted in Alberta.
Tariffs are likely one of the contributing factors in the recent increase in Canada’s Employment Insurance recipients. Regular Employment Insurance (EI) beneficiaries, in February 2025, increased by 2.5% (+11,990). The total number of EI beneficiaries in February was 5.9% higher than in February 2024.
The largest employment declines identified in the March Labour Force Survey report were in the most export-exposed provinces (Alberta and Ontario).
The Prairie unemployment rate increased to 6.5% (0.4 percentage points higher than one year ago).
The number of unemployed persons on the Prairies was 10% higher than a year ago.
PrairiesCan is talking to clients to understand impacts on-the-ground and offering repayment flexibility for impacted clients.
Support to impacted sectors will prioritize productivity growth, market diversification, and supply chain resilience.
Support to companies includes helping them to become CUSMA-compliant to avoid current U.S. tariffs on non-compliant goods.
RDAs are developing a tariff relief program, the Regional Tariff Relief Initiative, [Redacted] .
